检索结果-南通市图书馆

An integrated deterministic-stochastic approach for forecasting the long-term trajectories of COVID-19

International Journal of modeling, Simulation, and Scientific Computing 2021年第3期12卷 63-75页

作者： Indrajit Ghosh Tanujit Chakraborty Indian Statistical Institute 203 B.T.Road BaranagarKolkata 700108India

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic is one of the major health emergencies in decades that affected almost every country in the *** of June 30,2020,it has caused an outbreak with more than 10 million confirmed infections,and more than 500,000 reported deaths *** to the unavailability of an effective treatment(or vaccine)and insufficient evidence regarding the transmission mechanism of the epidemic,the world population is currently in a vulnerable *** daily cases data sets of COVID-19 for profoundly affected countries represent a stochastic process comprised of deterministic and stochastic *** study proposes an integrated deterministic–stochastic approach to forecast the long-term trajectories of the COVID-19 cases for Italy and *** deterministic component of the daily-cases univariate time series is assessed by an extended version of the sir[Susceptible–Infected–Recovered–Protected–Isolated(sirCX)]model,whereas its stochastic component is modeled using an autoregressive(AR)time series *** proposed integrated sirCX-AR(ISA)approach based on two operationally distinct modeling paradigms utilizes the superiority of both the deterministic sirCX and stochastic AR models to find the long-term trajectories of the epidemic *** analysis based on the proposed ISA model shows significant improvement in the long-term forecasting of COVID-19 cases for Italy and Spain in comparison to the ODE-based sirCX *** estimated Basic reproduction numbers for Italy and Spain based on sirCX model are found to be 4.78 and 3.25,*** model-based results reveal that the number of cases in Italy and Spain between 11 May,2020–9 June,2020 will be 10,982(6383–15,582)and 13,731(3395–29,013),***,the expected number of daily cases on 9 July,2020 for Italy and Spain is estimated to be 30(0–183)and 92(0–602),respectively.

关键词： COVID-19 Integrated approach Prediction extended sir model AR model

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

欢迎您,

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：

通借通还

欢迎您,

建议与咨询 留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案： 新增检索档案 确定 取消

请选择收藏分类： 新增自定义分类 确定 取消

通借通还

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：