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evaluation of Heavy Rainfall Model Forecasts over the Korean Peninsula Using Different Physical Parameterization Schemes and Horizontal Resolution

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2011年第6期28卷 1233-1245页

作者： Jeong-Gyun PARK Dong-Kyou LEE Atmospheric Sciences Program School of Earth and Environmental Sciences Seoul National University Seoul 151-747 Korea

In this study, the accuracy of a Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model （PSU/NCAR MM5） for predicting heavy summer precipitation over the Korean Peninsula was investigated. A total of 1800 simulations were performed using this model for 30 heavy rainfall events employing four cumulus parameterization schemes （CPS）, two grid-scale resolvable precipitation schemes （GRS）, and two planetary boundary layer （PBL） schemes in three model resolutions （90 km, 30 km, and 10 km）. The heavy rainfall events were mesoscale convective systems developed under the influence of mid-latitude baroclinic systems with low-level moisture transport from the ocean. The predictive accuracy for maximum rainfall was approximately 80% for 10-km resolution and was 60% for 30-km resolution. The predictive accuracy for rainfall position extended to ～150 km from the observed position for both resolutions. Simulated rainfall was most sensitive to CPS, then to PBL schemes, and then to GRS. In general, the Grell （GR） scheme and the Anthes and Kuo （AK） scheme showed a better prediction capability for heavy rainfall than did the Betts-Miller （BM） scheme and the Kain-Fritsch （KF） scheme. The GR scheme also performed well in the 24-h and 12-h precipitation predictions： the parameterized convective rainfall in GR is directly related to synoptic-scale forcing. The models without CPS performed better for rainfall amounts but worse for rainfall position than those with CPS. The MM5 model demonstrated substantial predictive capacity using synoptic-scale initial conditions and lateral boundary data because heavy summer rainfall in Korea occurs in a strong synoptic-scale environment.

关键词： heavy rainfall mesoscale convection mesoscale model evaluation convective parameterization

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evaluation of Simulated CO_2 Concentrations from the CarbonTracker-Asia Model Using In-situ Observations over East Asia for 2009–2013

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2019年第6期36卷 603-613页

作者： Samuel Takele KENEA Young-Suk OH Jae-Sang RHEE Tae-Young GOO Young-Hwa BYUN Shanlan LI Lev D.LABZOVSKII Haeyoung LEE Robert F.BANKS Climate Research Division National Institute of Meteorological Sciences Environmental Meteorology Research Division National Institute of Meteorological Sciences Meteorology Department Delta Air LinesInc.

The CarbonTracker(CT) model has been used in previous studies for understanding and predicting the sources, sinks, and dynamics that govern the distribution of atmospheric CO_2 at varying ranges of spatial and temporal scales. However, there are still challenges for reproducing accurate model-simulated CO_2 concentrations close to the surface, typically associated with high spatial heterogeneity and land cover. In the present study, we evaluated the performance of nested-grid CT model simulations of CO_2 based on the CT2016 version through comparison with in-situ observations over East Asia covering the period 2009–13. We selected sites located in coastal, remote, inland, and mountain areas. The results are presented at diurnal and seasonal time periods. At target stations, model agreement with in-situ observations was varied in capturing the diurnal cycle. Overall, biases were less than 6.3 ppm on an all-hourly mean basis, and this was further reduced to a maximum of 4.6 ppm when considering only the daytime. For instance, at Anmyeondo, a small bias was obtained in winter, on the order of 0.2 ppm. The model revealed a diurnal amplitude of CO_2 that was nearly flat in winter at Gosan and Anmyeondo stations, while slightly overestimated in the summertime. The model's performance in reproducing the diurnal cycle remains a challenge and requires improvement. The model showed better agreement with the observations in capturing the seasonal variations of CO_2 during daytime at most sites, with a correlation coefficient ranging from 0.70 to 0.99. Also, model biases were within-0.3 and 1.3 ppm, except for inland stations(7.7 ppm).

关键词： model evaluation in-situ observations CarbonTracker East Asia

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evaluation of the Biodiversity Conservation Function in Liaohe Delta Wetland,Northeastern China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第4期34卷 798-805页

作者： Wenying YU Ruipeng JI Xiuzhen HAN Long CHEN Rui FENG Jinwen WU Yushu ZHANG Institute of Atmospheric Environment China Meteorological AdministrationShenyang 110166 Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Disasters of Liaoning Province Shenyang 110166 National Satellite Meteorological Center Beijing 100081 Panjin Meteorological Bureau Panjin 124010

The scientific evaluation of the wetland biodiversity conservation function is the basis of balanced wetland protection and development. Our research sought to provide references for the protection of wetland ecological environments as well as the related planning and management policies. The study established a fitting model for evaluating the biodiversity conservation function in the Liaohe Delta, northeastern China. The new model, the Wetland Biodiversity Conservation Indicator(WBCI), was with four input factors, including the vegetation coverage(VC), habitat suitability index(HI), land use and land cover(LULC) index(LI), and threat factor index(TI) of the LULC type. The values assigned to HI and TI were based on Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(In VEST)habitat quality models. The weights of all the factors in WBCI were valued with the Principal Component Analysis(PCA). We evaluated the wetland biodiversity conservation function of Panjin, Liaohe Delta, China, by using the WBCI model based on Gaofen-1(GF-1) satellite data in 2018, and the result was verified with In VEST and other models. It showed that the output map was similar to that of In VEST, with the higher-quality habitat including the wetland, tidal flat, water body, and forest, as well as the lower-quality land use types including the paddy field, crop field, construction land, and land used by traffic. The wetland biodiversity conservation function was better in areas less affected by human disturbance, with very abundant species and good-quality habitat. It was poor in areas impacted by more frequent human activities such as the land cultivation, housing, and traffic, which led to the landscape fragmentation. The WBCI model provided a more accurate reflection of the bird distribution than the In VEST model. The WBCI model was able to reflect the difference in quality of each habitat grade, in contrast to the net primary productivity(NPP) method and species distribution models(SDMs). The new model was, therefore, simpler and

关键词： wetland biodiversity conservation function habitat quality evaluation

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evaluation of East Asian Climatology as Simulated by Seven Coupled Models

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2005年第4期22卷 479-495页

作者：姜大膀王会军郎咸梅 Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029

Using observation and reanalysis data throughout 1961-1990, the East Asian surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure climatology as simulated by seven fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models, namely CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, ECHAM4/OPYC3, GFDL-R30, HadCM3, and NCAR-PCM, are systematically evaluated in this study. It is indicated that the above models can successfully reproduce the annual and seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation climatology in East Asia, with relatively good performance for boreal autumn and annual mean. The models' ability to simulate surface air temperature is more reliable than precipitation. In addition, the models can dependably capture the geographical distribution pattern of annual, boreal winter, spring and autumn sea level pressure in East Asia. In contrast, relatively large simulation errors are displayed when simulated boreal summer sea level pressure is compared with reanalysis data in East Asia. It is revealed that the simulation errors for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure are generally large over and around the Tibetan Plateau. No individual model is best in every aspect. As a whole, the ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 performances are much better, whereas the CGCM2 is relatively poorer in East Asia. Additionally, the seven-model ensemble mean usually shows a relatively high reliability.

关键词： coupled model East Asian climatology evaluation

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evaluation of tourism climate comfort in the Grand Shangri-La region

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Journal of Mountain Science 2019年第6期16卷 1452-1469页

作者： CHENG Qing-ping ZHONG Fang-lei Northwest Institute of Eco-Environmental and Resources Chinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China School of Economics Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China

The Grand Shangri-La(GSL) region has strong international tourist appeal. GSL has considerable international eco-tourist potential as well as being attractive for leisure, vacation, health, explorative, and scientific research activities in addition to high-end tourism experiences. These factors could promote the development of its regional tourism. GSL has been identified as a key area for tourism development in China. In this study, we investigated tourism climate conditions in GSL from 1980 to 2016 using a tourism climate index(TCI). We found that through global warming, the number of annual and monthly good-weather days, as assessed with the TCI, showed an increase over most of GSL;that trend was especially true for very good, excellent, and ideal days. The optimal travel period was May–October. We obtained the same result using cluster heat maps, in which we categorized 31 studied meteorological stations into eight types. However, heavy rainfall tended to occur during that optimal period, and it was concentrated at certain times. The annual total number of comfortable days greater than 300 was mainly located in southern GSL. We observed significant correlations between monthly and annual excellent and ideal days with latitude and elevation;in particular, we identified a significant nonlinear correlation between excellent(and ideal) days and elevation.

关键词： Grand Shangri-La region evaluation Tourism climate comfort Cluster heat maps Temperature Precipitation

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evaluation on data assimilation of a global high resolution wave-tide-circulation coupled model using the tropical Pacific TAO buoy observations

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2018年第3期37卷 8-20页

作者： SHI Junqiang YIN Xunqiang SHU Qi XIAO Bin QIAO Fangli College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Ocean University of China The First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Key Laboratory of State Oceanic Administration for Marine Sciences and Numerical Modeling The First Institute of OceanographyState Oceanic Administration

In order to evaluate the assimilation results from a global high resolution ocean model, the buoy observations from tropical atmosphere ocean（TAO） during August 2014 to July 2015 are employed. The horizontal resolution of wave-tide-circulation coupled ocean model developed by The First Institute of Oceanography（FIOCOM model） is 0.1°×0.1°, and ensemble adjustment Kalman filter is used to assimilate the sea surface temperature（SST）, sea level anomaly（SLA） and Argo temperature/salinity profiles. The simulation results with and without data assimilation are examined. First, the overall statistic errors of model results are analyzed. The scatter diagrams of model simulations versus observations and corresponding error probability density distribution show that the errors of all the observed variables, including the temperature, isotherm depth of 20°C（D20）, salinity and two horizontal component of velocity are reduced to some extent with a maximum improvement of 54% after assimilation. Second, time-averaged variables are used to investigate the horizontal and vertical structures of the model results. Owing to the data assimilation, the biases of the time-averaged distribution are reduced more than70% for the temperature and D20 especially in the eastern Pacific. The obvious improvement of D20 which represents the upper mixed layer depth indicates that the structure of the temperature after the data assimilation becomes more close to the reality and the vertical structure of the upper ocean becomes more reasonable. At last,the physical processes of time series are compared with observations. The time evolution processes of all variables after the data assimilation are more consistent with the observations. The temperature bias and RMSE of D20 are reduced by 76% and 56% respectively with the data assimilation. More events during this period are also reproduced after the data assimilation. Under the condition of strong 2014/2016 El Ni？o, the Equatorial Undercurrent（EUC） from the TAO is gradually increased during August to

关键词： tropical Pacific tropical atmosphere ocean data assimilation evaluation

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evaluation of FY-3/VIRR Sea Surface Temperature Data for Climate Applications

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第6期35卷 952-963页

作者： Yunyun LIU Sujuan WANG Jian LIU Zhensong GONG Xiaolong JIA Laboratory of Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 National Satellite Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites National Satellite Meteorological CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

We evaluated the sea surface temperature(SST)products derived from the visible infrared radiometer on board the Fengyun-3 satellites(FY-3/VIRR)during 2016-2018 from the perspective of climate applications.The data had previously been reprocessed by the National Satellite Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration based on an updated SST retrieval algorithm.The overall consistency between the FY-3/VIRR SST data and the optimum interpolation SST version 2.1(OIv2.1)was better for monthly means than for pentad means,and showed a clear dependence on the season and location.There was better consistency in winter than in summer,and in the tropical central-eastern Pacific than in the western Pacific warm pool,tropical North Indian Ocean,and tropical Atlantic Ocean.The monthly deviation of the global average SST anomaly was-0.03±0.07℃ and the average root-meansquare errors(RMSEs)presented clear seasonal fluctuations with a maximum of approximately 0.5℃ in summer.The poor consistency of the FY-3/VIRR SST in summer may be partially attributed to the bias of the OIv2.1 data in global oceans(especially the Indian Ocean)as a result of the spatially heterogeneous in situ measurements from ships,buoys,and Argo floats.Convective activities and clouds in the tropics may also influence the accuracy of the FY-3/VIRR SST retrievals.The Nino SST indices based on both FY-3/VIRR and OIv2.1 SST data displayed a generally similar evolution,including the start and end of El Nino and La Nina events and their amplitudes,although the deviations were slightly larger when the Pacific SST anomaly was in the neutral state of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).The deviations varied greatly with season in the tropical Indian and Atlantic oceans,suggesting the need to perform further analyses and validation of the FY-3/VIRR SST products in these two basins.

关键词： visible infrared radiometer(VIRR) Fengyun-3 satellites(FY-3) sea surface temperature(SST) El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) evaluation climate application

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evaluation of Rural Broadband Network Based on Broadband Universal Service Management System

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China Communications 2019年第8期16卷 51-57页

作者： Zejue Wang Meimei Dang China Academy of Information and Communications Technology

Carrying out pilot project to provide broadband universal service nationwide, especially in rural impoverished areas, is a major policy decision in China. To accelerate implementation and ensure quality of the constructed network, it is of great significance to conduct comprehensive and scientific evaluation of the network status. In this paper, we present the evaluation of the broadband network constructed in rural China with several key indicators. It shows that with steppedup efforts of the telecom industry, broadband networks have been introduced into more and more villages. The average network speed reaches 60 Mbps, which is far exceeding 12 Mbps’ obligation.

关键词： network evaluation data analysis broadband service rural area

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evaluation of the simulation capability of the Wavewatch Ⅲ model for Pacific Ocean wave

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2015年第9期34卷 43-57页

作者： BI Fan SONG Jinbao WU Kejian XU Yao Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of Sciences College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography Ocean University of China Ocean College Zhejiang University Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography (Ocean University of China) Ministry of Education

Wave climate analysis and other applications for the Pacific Ocean require a reliable wave hindcast. Five source and sink term packages in the Wavewatch III model （v3.14 and v4.18） are compared and assessed in this study through comprehensive observations, including altimeter significant wave height, advanced synthetic aperture radar swell, and buoy wave parameters and spectrum. In addition to the evaluation of typically used integral parameters, the spectra partitioning method contributes to the detailed wave system and wave maturity validation. The modified performance evaluation method （PS） effectively reduces attribute numbers and facilitates the overall assessment. To avoid possible misleading results in the root mean square error-based validations, another indicator called HH （indicating the two authors） is also calculated to guarantee the consistency of the results. The widely used Tolman and Chalikov （TC） package is still generally efficient in determining the integral properties of wave spectra but is physically deficient in explaining the dissipation processes. The ST4 package performs well in overall wave parameters and significantly improves the accuracy of wave systems in the open ocean. Meanwhile, the newly published ST6 package is slightly better in determining swell energy variations. The two packages （ACC350 and BIA） obtained from Wavewatch III v3.14 exhibit large scatters at different sea states. The three most ideal packages are further examined in terms of reproducing wave- induced momentum flux from the perspective of transport. Stokes transport analysis indicates that ST4 is the closest to the NDBC-buoy-spectrum-based transport values, and TC and ST6 tend to overestimate and underestimate the transport magnitude, respectively, in swell mixed areas. This difference must be considered, particularly in air-wave-current coupling research and upper ocean analysis. The assessment results provide guidance for the selection of ST4 for use in a background Pacific Ocean hindcast for high wave climate

关键词： Wavewatch III evaluation Pacific Ocean source and sink term packages wave-induced flux Stokes transport

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evaluation of reanalysis surface wind products with quality-assured buoy wind measurements along the north coast of the South China Sea

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2021年第3期40卷 58-69页

作者： Jing Cha Xinyu Lin Xiaogang Guo Xiaofang Wan Dawei You Third Institute of Oceanography Ministry of Natural ResourcesXiamen 361005China South China Sea Branch Ministry of Natural ResourcesGuangzhou 510000China

Three archived reanalysis wind vectors at 10 m height in the wind speed range of 2-15 m/s,namely,the second version of the National Centres for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)Climate Forecast System Reanalysis(CFSv2),European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Interim Reanalysis(ERA-I)and NCEPDepartment of Energy(DOE)Reanalysis 2(NCEP-2)products,are evaluated by a comparison with the winds measured by moored buoys in coastal regions of the South China Sea(SCS).The buoy data are first quality controlled by extensive techniques that help eliminate degraded measurements.The evaluation results reveal that the CFSv2 wind vectors are most consistent with the buoy winds(with average biases of 0.01 m/s and 1.76°).The ERA-I winds significantly underestimate the buoy wind speed(with an average bias of-1.57 m/s),while the statistical errors in the NCEP-2 wind direction have the largest magnitude.The diagnosis of the reanalysis wind errors shows the residuals of all three reanalysis wind speeds(reanalysis-buoy)decrease with increasing buoy wind speed,suggesting a narrower wind speed range than that of the observations.Moreover,wind direction errors are examined to depend on the magnitude of the wind speed and the wind speed biases.In general,the evaluation of three reanalysis wind products demonstrates that CFSv2 wind vectors are the closest to the winds along the north coast of the SCS and are sufficiently accurate to be used in numerical models.

关键词： evaluation quality control buoy wind coastal regions of the South China Sea

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