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On the Relationship between the Winter eurasian teleconnection Pattern and the Following Summer Precipitation over China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第6期33卷 743-752页

作者： Junhu ZHAO Liu YANG Bohui GU Jie YANG Guolin FENG Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Department of Physical Science and Technology Yangzhou UniversityYangzhou 225002 College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000 Jiangsu Provincial Climate Center Nanjing 210008

The eurasian teleconnection pattern （EU） is an important low-frequency pattern with well-known impacts on climate anomalies in Eurasia. The difference of low-level v-winds in several regions in the eurasian mid-high latitudes is defined as the EU index （EUIv）. In this study, the relationship between the winter EUIv and precipitation in the following summer over China is investigated. Results show that there is a significant positive （negative） correlation between the winter EUIv and the following summer precipitation over North China （the Yangtze River-Huaihe River basins）. Meanwhile, an interdecadal variability exists in the interannual relationship, and the correlation has become significantly enhanced since the early 1980s. Thus, the proposed EUIv may have implications for the prediction of summer precipitation anomalies over China. In positive winter EUIv years, three cyclonic circulation anomalies are observed--over the Ural Mountains, the Okhotsk Sea, and the subtropical western North Pacific. That is, the Ural blocking and Okhotsk blocking are inactive, zonal circulation prevails in the mid-high latitudes, and the western Pacific subtropical high tends to be weaker and locates to the north of its normal position in the following summer. This leads to above-normal moisture penetrating into the northern part of East China, and significant positive （negative） precipitation anomalies over North China （the Yangtze River-Huaihe River basins）, and vice versa. Further examination shows that the SST anomalies over the Northwest Pacific and subtropical central North Pacific may both contribute to the formation of EUIv-related circulation anomalies over the western North Pacific.

关键词： eurasian teleconnection summer precipitation North China Yangtze River-Huaihe River basins

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Detecting Primary Precursors of January Surface Air Temperature Anomalies in China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第6期31卷 1096-1108页

作者： Guirong TAN Hong-Li REN Haishan CHEN Qinglong YOU Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology Laboratory for Climate Studies/CMA–NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological Administration Department of Atmospheric Science School of Environmental Studies China University of Geoscience

This study aims to detect the primary precursors and impact mechanisms for January surface temperature anomaly （JSTA） events in China against the background of global warming, by comparing the causes of two extreme JSTA events occurring in 2008 and 2011 with the common mechanisms inferred from all typical episodes during 1979- 2008. The results show that these two extreme events exhibit atmospheric circulation patterns in the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia, with a positive anomaly center over the Ural Mountains and a negative one to the south of Lake Baikal （UMLB）, which is a pattern quite similar to that for all the typical events. However, the eurasian teleconnection patterns in the 2011 event, which are accompanied by a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, are different to those of the typical events and the 2008 event. We further find that a common anomalous signal appearing in early summer over the tropical Indian Ocean may be responsible for the following late-winter eurasian teleeonnec- lions and the associated JSTA events in China. We show that sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） in the preceding summer over the western Indian Ocean （WIO） are intimately related to the UMLB-like circulation pattern in the following January. Positive WIOSSTAs in early summer tend to induce strong UMLB-like circulation anomalies in January, which may result in anomalously or extremely cold events in China, which can also be successfully reproduced in model experiments. Our results suggest that the WIOSSTAs may be a useful precursor for predicting JSTA events in China.

关键词： eurasian teleconnection anomalous temperature in China seasonal climate prediction SST anomaly western Indian Ocean model experiment

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