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Improvement of Soil Moisture Simulation in Eurasia by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model from CMIP5 to CMIP6

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第2期38卷 237-252页

作者： Yinghan SANG Hong-Li REN Xueli SHI Xiaofeng XU Haishan CHEN School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Laboratory for Climate Studies&CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081China

This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of historical surface soil moisture simulation(1979-2012)over Eurasia at annual and seasonal time scales between two medium-resolution versions of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM)—one that is currently participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),i.e.,BCC-CSM2-MR,and the other,BCC-CSM1.1m,which participated in CMIP5.We show that BCC-CSM2-MR is more skillful in reproducing the climate mean states and standard deviations of soil moisture,with pattern correlations increased and biases reduced significantly.BCC-CSM2-MR performs better in capturing the first two primary patterns of soil moisture anomalies,where the period of the corresponding time series is closer to that of reference data.Comparisons show that BCC-CSM2-MR performs at a high level among multiple models of CMIP6 in terms of centered pattern correlation and“amplitude of variation”(relative standard deviation).In general,the centered pattern correlation of BCC-CSM2-MR,ranging from 0.61 to 0.87,is higher than the multi-model mean of CMIP6,and the relative standard deviation is 0.75,which surmounts the overestimations in most of the CMIP6 models.Due to the vital role played by precipitation in land-atmosphere interaction,possible causes of the improvement of soil moisture simulation are further related to precipitation in BCC-CSM2-MR.The results indicate that a better description of the relationship between soil moisture and precipitation and a better reproduction of the climate mean precipitation by the model may result in the improved performance of soil moisture simulation.

关键词： BCC-CSM soil moisture CMIP6 historical simulation Eurasia

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Identification of winter long-lasting regional extreme low-temperature events in Eurasia and their variation during 1948—2017

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2021年第3期12卷 353-362页

作者： ZHANG Ying-Xian LIU Yan-Ju DING Yi-Hui Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China

Compared with short-duration events,long-lasting regional extreme low-temperature events(RELTEs)often have more severe impacts on human societies due to the induced persistence and large geographic area of related weather and climate disaster.Accordingly,an improved objective technique was applied to identify all long-lasting RELTEs in Eurasia from the winter of 1948/1949 to 2017/2018,followed by an in-depth discussion of its variation in terms of the annual frequency,duration,impacted area,mean intensity,maximum intensity,and a comprehensive index.The RELTE lasting for 52 d in the winter of 2007/2008 exhibited the longest duration,largest impacted area,and a greatest comprehensive index,which induced extremely low temperatures for more than 20 d in Western Asia,Central Asia,and China.During the past 70 winters,the frequency of long-lasting RELTEs decreased,especially after the late 1960s.Nevertheless,the mean and maximum intensities and comprehensive index exhibited distinctly increasing trends.All indicators of winter long-lasting RELTEs had a similar inter-decadal fluctuation featured by two noticeable peaks occurring around 1970 and 2007,and a remarkable recovery was discovered in the period of late 1990s to mid-2010s,especially for the occurrence of super long-lasting events.Significantly,winter long-lasting RELTEs in Eurasia showed distinct trends under various decadal climate backgrounds,i.e.,a strong negative or weak positive trend in the accelerated warming period and conversely,a strong positive or weak negative trend in the wanning slowdown stage.These findings indicate that we should be alert of the similar future recovery of winter long-lasting RELTEs in Eurasia,which are likely to occur in the slowdown period of global warming.

关键词： Regional extreme low-temperature events Winter Long-lasting Eurasia Climate variation

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An Objective Identification Method for Wintertime Cold Fronts in Eurasia

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第10期38卷 1695-1705页

作者： Mengru FENG Yujing QIN Chuhan LU Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

The present study identifies wintertime cold fronts in Eurasia from gridded datasets using a new objective two-step identification scheme.The simple and classic conception of a front is adopted,where a cold front is identified as the warm boundary of the frontal zone with a suitable horizontal temperature gradient and cold advection.We combine the traditional thermal front parameter with temperature advection to first identify the cold frontal zone,and then its eastern and southern boundaries are objectively plotted as a cold front in Eurasia.By comparing different cold front identification methods,the results from this two-step cold front identification method and subjective analysis are more consistent,and the positions of the cold front identified with our method are more reasonable.This objective technique is also applied to a nationwide cold wave event over China.Results show that the horizontal extent and movement of the cold front are in good agreement with the related circulation and the associated cold weather.The proposed method and results in this study may shed light on the rapid identification of cold fronts in operational weather analysis and facilitate further research on the long-term activity characteristics of continental cold fronts.

关键词： cold front thermal front parameter objective identification Eurasia winter

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New urban map of Eurasia using MODIS and multi-source geospatial data

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Geo-Spatial Information Science 2017年第1期20卷 29-38页

作者： Bayan Alsaaideh Ryutaro Tateishi Dong Xuan Phong Nguyen Thanh Hoan Ahmad Al-Hanbali Bai Xiulian Center for Environmental Remote Sensing(CEReS) Chiba UniversityChibaJapan COPRONA Inc.International Consulting Company Vung TauVietnam Institute of Geography Vietnamese Academy of Science and Technology(VAST)HanoiVietnam Geosphere environmental technology corp. tokyoJapan

Urban areas are of paramount significance to both the individuals and communities at local and regional scales.However,the rapid growth of urban areas exerts effects on climate,biodiversity,hydrology,and natural ecosystems worldwide.Therefore,regular and up-to-date information related to urban extent is necessary to monitor the impacts of urban areas at local,regional,and potentially global scales.This study presents a new urban map of Eurasia at 500 m resolution using multi-source geospatial data,including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)data of 2013,population density of 2012,the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System(DMSP-OLS)nighttime lights of 2012,and constructed Impervious Surface Area(ISA)data of 2010.The Eurasian urban map was created using the threshold method for these data,combined with references of fine resolution Landsat and Google Earth imagery.The resultant map was compared with nine global urban maps and was validated using random sampling method.Results of the accuracy assessment showed high overall accuracy of the new urban map of 94%.This urban map is one product of the 20 land cover classes of the next version of Global Land Cover by National Mapping Organizations.

关键词： Urban area mapping population density MODIS data integration accuracy assessment Eurasia

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Historical and real-time estimation of snow depth in Eurasia based on multiple passive microwave data

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气候变化研究进展:英文版 2023年第4期14卷 537-545页

作者： Li-Yun DAI Li-Juan MA Su-Ping NIE Si-Yu WEI Tao CHE Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Province Heihe Remote Sensing Experimental Research StationNorthwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China National Climate Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 1000101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 1000101China

Current snow depth datasets demonstrate large discrepancies in the spatial pattern in Eurasia,and the lagging updates of datasets do not meet the operational requirements of the meteorological service department.This study developed a dynamic retrieval method for daily snow depth over Eurasia based on cross-sensor calibrated microwave brightness temperatures to enhance retrieval accuracy and meet the requirements of operational work.These brightness temperatures were detected by microwave radiometer imager carried on the FengYun 3(FY-3)satellite and the special sensor microwave imager/sounder carried on the USA Defense Meteorological Satellite Program series satellites,which use the fewest sensors to provide the longest data and consequently introduce minimal errors during inter-sensor calibration.Firstly,inter-sensor calibration was conducted amongst brightness temperatures collected by the three sensors.A spatiotemporal dynamic relationship between snow depth and microwave brightness temperature gradient was then established,overcoming the large uncertainties induced by varying snow characteristics.This relationship can be utilised in FY-3 satellite data for operational service to obtain real-time snow depth.The generated daily snow depth dataset from 1988 to 2021 presents similar spatial patterns of snow depth to those observed in situ.Against in situ snow depth,the overall bias and root mean square error are−2.04 and 6.49 cm,respectively,facilitating considerable improvements in accuracy compared with the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 snow depth product,which adopts the static algorithm.Further analysis shows an overall decreasing trend from 1988 to 2021 for annual and monthly mean snow depths,demonstrating a noticeable reduction since around 2000.The reduction in monthly mean snow depth started earlier in shallow snow months than in deep snow months.

关键词： Snow depth Passive microwave remote sensing Eurasia

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Russia and China Place Eurasia at the Heart of the Post-Pandemic World Order

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Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies 2021年第1期15卷 1-33页

作者： Talmiz Ahmad International Studies Symbiosis International UniversityPuneIndia

As the pandemic has wreaked havoc on global health and economy,it has also accelerated trends in international politics.These include the decline of the US’status as the global hegemon and the emergence of a multipolar world,with new players seeking a role in shaping world affairs.China’s economic successes have placed it in the vanguard of the newly emerging players on the world stage,in tandem with Russia.US hostility to both has promoted closer relations between them,having been earlier brought together by ties in the areas of energy,trade and defence.They have now become partners in placing Eurasia at the centre of their strategic interests by linking Putin’s‘Greater Eurasian Partnership’with China’s Belt and Road Initiative.Through a series of carefully crafted diplomatic initiatives,Russia and China are bringing other nations-Iran,Turkey,the Arab Gulf states,Afghanistan and Pakistan-into the Eurasian embrace on the basis of logistical,energy and digital connectivity,thus shaping the nascent stage of a new world order.

关键词： China Russia Eurasia Biden administration New World Order

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气候变化驱动下的欧亚大陆土地覆盖情景模拟

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2020年第1期30卷 3-17页

作者：范泽孟白茹玉岳天祥 State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application Nanjing 210023China

The method for surface modelling of land cover scenarios(SMLCS)has been improved to simulate the scenarios of land cover in Eurasia.On the basis of the observation monthly climatic data observed from 2127 weather stations in Eurasia during 1981-2010,the climatic scenarios data of RCP26,RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios released by CMIP5,and the land cover current data of Eurasia in 2010,the land cover scenarios of Eurasia were respectively simulated.The results show that most land cover types would generally have similar changing trends in the future,but with some difference in different periods under the three scenarios of RCP26,RCP45 and RCP85.Deciduous needleleaf forest,mixed forest,shrub land,wetlands and snow and ice would generally decrease in Eurasia during 2010-2100.Snow and ice would have the fastest decreasing rate that would decrease by 37.42%on average.Shrub land would have the slowest decreasing rate that would decrease by 5.65%on average.Water bodies would have the fastest increasing rate that would increase by 28.78%on average.Barren or sparsely vegetated land would have the slowest increasing rate that would increase by 0.76%.Moreover,the simulated results show that climate change would directly impact on land cover change in Eurasia.

关键词： SMLCS climate change land cover scenarios Eurasia

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Snow water equivalent over Eurasia in the next 50 years projected by aggregated CMIP3 models

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Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2012年第2期4卷 93-106页

作者： LiJuan Ma Yong Luo DaHe Qin National Climate Center Beijing 100081China Center for Earth System Science Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research InstituteChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhouGansu 730000China

Based on remote sensing snow water equivalent （SWE） data, the simulated SWE in 20C3M experiments from 14 models attend- hag the third phase of the Coupled Models for Inter-comparison Project （CMIP3） was first evaluated by computing the different percentage, spatial correlation coefficient, and standard deviation of biases during 1979-2000. Then, the diagnosed ten models that performed better simulation in Eurasian SWE were aggregated by arithmetic mean to project the changes of Eurasian SWE in 2002-2060. Results show that SWE will decrease significantly for Eurasia as a whole in the next 50 years. Spatially, significant decreasing trends dominate Eurasia except for significant increase in the northeastern part. Seasonally, decreasing proportion will be greatest in summer indicating that snow cover in wanner seasons is more sensitive to climate warming. However, absolute decreasing trends are not the greatest in winter, but in spring. This is caused by the greater magnitude of negative trends, but smaller positive trends in spring than in winter. The changing characteristics of increasing in eastern Eurasia and decreasing in western Eurasia and over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau favor the viewpoint that there will be more rainfall in North China and less in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer. Additionally, the decreasing rate and extent with significant decreasing trends under SRES A2 are greater than those under SRES B1, indicating that the emission of greenhouse gases （GHG） will speed up the decreasing rate of snow cover both temporally and spatially. It is crucial to control the discharge of GHG emissions for mitigating the disappearance of snow cover over Eurasia.

关键词： snow water equivalent projection CMIP3 Eurasia climate change simulation

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Bipolar Disorder in Geopolitical Strategy Within Eurasia: When Will the “New Great Game” Adjust to Reality?

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International Relations and Diplomacy 2022年第5期10卷 207-228页

作者： David A.Jones University of Warsaw WarsawPoland Norwich University NorthfieldVermontUSA

Current geopolitical strategies of countries or trading partners reflect a“New Great Game”in the wake of the Covid19 pandemic,especially across Eurasia.Strategies range from modification of China’s decade-long“Belt and Road”Initiative,Russian Federation’s Eurasian Union,to Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific geopolitical program,coupled with“Build Back Better World”(“B3W”)initiative advanced by the Group of Seven(G7)at its 12 June 2021 meeting at Carbis Bay,Cornwall,England.This came as United States forces withdrew from Afghanistan chaotically.Russia,China,and the West each compete to become the more effective chess player in Eurasia.Competitor countries have developed traditional and novel soft power tools to construct relationships across that supercontinent.What countries will endure,meet the test of time?This chapter will address those issues individually,collectively,drawing upon forecasts advanced in this century,post-pandemic assessments,with triangulation of information available currently in the literature of“New Great Game”players.Much is at stake,from Eurasia’s future to prospective statehood in East Turkmenistan(China’s Xinjiang)to peace across Asia,global tranquility.All nations must meet global expectations and regulations,be rewarded when they do,ostracized in failure.Brazil,India,and countries driving trade should be considered seriously for greater roles in global governance.

关键词： Afghanistan B3B BRI C5 China Eurasia G7 “Great Game” Mandala Doctrine(Opposite Borders) Russia Taliban United States

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The Silk roads: phylogeography of Central Asian dice snakes (Serpentes: Natricidae) shaped by rivers in deserts and mountain valleys

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Current Zoology 2024年第2期70卷 150-162页

作者： Daniel Jablonski Konrad Mebert Rafaqat Masroor Evgeniy Simonov Oleg Kukushkin Timur Abduraupov Sylvia Hofmann Department of Zoology Comenius University in BratislavaBratislavaSlovakia Global Biology BirrSwitzerland Pakistan Museum of Natural History ShakarparianIslamabadPakistan Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution Russian Academy of SciencesMoscowRussia T.I.Vyazemski Karadag Scientific Station-Nature Reserve—Branch of A.0.Kovalevsky Institute of Biology of the Southern Seas TheodosiaCrimea Zoological Institute of the RAS Saint PetersbourgRussia Institute of Zoology Academy of Sciences of the Republic of UzbekistanYunusabadTashkentUzbekistan Museum Koenig Bonn LIBLeibniz Institute for the Analysis of Biodiversity ChangeBonnGermany UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research Department of Conservation BiologyPermoserstrasse 1504318 LeipzigGermany

Influenced by rapid changes in climate and landscape features since the Miocene,widely distributed species provide suitable models to study the environmental impact on their evolution and current genetic diversity.The dice snake Natrix tessellata,widely distributed in the Western Palearctic is one such species.We aimed to resolve a detailed phylogeography of N.tessellata with a focus on the Central Asian clade with 4 and the Anatolia clade with 3 mitochondrial lineages,trace their origin,and correlate the environmental changes that affected their distribution through time.The expected time of divergence of both clades began at 3.7 Mya in the Pliocene,reaching lineage differentiation approximately 1 million years later.The genetic diversity in both clades is rich,suggesting different ancestral areas,glacial refugia,demographic changes,and colonization routes.The Caspian lineage is the most widespread lineage in Central Asia,distributed around the Caspian Sea and reaching the foothills of the Hindu Kush Mountains in Afghanistan,and Eastern European lowlands in the west.Its distribution is limited by deserts,moun-tains,and cold steppe environments.Similarly,Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan lineages followed the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya water systems in Central Asia,with ranges delimited by the large Kyzylkum and Karakum deserts.On the western side,there are several lineages within the Anatolia clade that converged in the central part of the peninsula with 2 being endemic to Western Asia.The distribution of both main clades was affected by expansion from their Pleistocene glacial refugia around the Caspian Sea and in the valleys of Central Asia as well as by environmental changes,mostly through aridification.

关键词： biogeography colonization Eurasia genetic diversity mitochondrial DNA Paratethys refugia water snakes.

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