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Lessons from the Mainland of China’s Epidemic Experience in the First Phase about the Growth Rules of Infected and Recovered Cases of COVID-19 Worldwide

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2020年第4期11卷 497-507页

作者： Chuanliang Han Yimeng Liu Jiting Tang Yuyao Zhu Carlo Jaeger Saini Yang State Key Laboratory of Cognitive Neuroscience and Learning and IDG/Mc Govern Institute for Brain Research Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Ministry of EducationBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of EducationFaculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Global Climate Forum 10178 BerlinGermany

The first phase of the novel coronavirus disease(COVID-19)that emerged at the end of 2019 has been brought under control in the mainland of China in March,while it is still spreading *** the pandemic will end is a question of great concern.A logistic model that depicts the growth rules of infected and recovered cases in China’s mainland may shed some light on this *** model well explained the data by 13 April from 31 countries that have been experiencing serious COVID-2019 outbreaks(R2≥0.95).Based on this model,the semi-saturation period(SSP)of infected cases in those countries ranges from 3 March to 18 *** to the linear relationship between the growth rules for infected and for recovered cases identified from the Chinese data,we predicted that the SSP of the recovered cases outside China ranges from 22 March to 8 *** importantly,we found a strong positive correlation between the SSP of infected cases and the timing of a government’s ***,this model was also applied to four regions that went through other coronavirus or Ebola virus epidemics(R2≥0.95).There is a negative correlation between the death rate and the logistic growth *** findings provide strong evidence for the effectiveness of rapid epidemic control measures in various countries.

关键词： China COVID-2019 epidemiological properties Logistic model Pandemic

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