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Epidemics,Convergence,and Common Prosperity:Evidence from China

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China & World Economy 2021年第6期29卷 117-138页

作者： Zesen Qian Lingran Yuan Shuo Wang Qizheng Zhang Binlei Gong School of Economics Zhejiang UniversityChina School of Public Affairs Zhejiang UniversityChina Academy of Social Governance and China Academy for Rural Development Zhejiang UniversityChina

This article investigates the impact of previous Epidemics on rural development and convergence,and identifies the impacts mechanism based on convergence tests.Using a balanced panel of 31 provinces,the empirical results from 2002 to 2019 show that Epidemics decelerated convergence in rural per capita income.The mechanism analysis shows that the accelerated divergence in wages and the decelerated convergence in business income were the major drivers,which also led to decelerated convergence in rural per capita consumption.Although Epidemics have not threatened rural food consumption and the Engel coefficient of rural households,these two indicators of basic living needs have failed to achieve convergence across regions.The overall impact of an epidemic on convergence in rural-urban income disparity has also been insignificant,indicating that Epidemics have affected rural and urban development simultaneously.Finally,COVID-19 is likely to decelerate convergence in rural income,rural consumption,and urban income.

关键词： common prosperity Epidemics regional disparity rural convergence ruralurban disparity

Understanding the Treatment of COVID-19 and other Epidemics in Traditional Chinese Medicine

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Chinese Medicine and Culture 2020年第1期3卷 138-145页

作者： Liyun Chen Shiyun Yan Institute of Science Technology and HumanitiesShanghai University of Traditional Chinese MedicineShanghaiChina

Epidemics spread quickly and are highly contagious.And there has been a profound understanding of etiology,pathogenesis,prevention,and treatment of these diseases in traditional Chinese medicine(TCM).Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID‑19)falls into the category of“epidemic dampness”,and the core pathogenesis is that latency of externally‑contracted dampness turbidity and epidemic toxin in pleurodiaphragmatic interspace provokes Shaoyang ministerial fire and causes concomitant attack of external and internal pathogens,resulting in wood fire tormenting metal and the upward rushing of dampness fire(toxin),ultimately leading to a syndrome of epidemic toxin blocking the lung.Throughout the treatment of COVID‑19,Professor Shiyun Yan uses the“harmonizing”method and sticks to the basic principles of“protecting middle qi,pectoral qi and yin fluid”to consolidate the root,dispersing externally and clearing internally and using in combination drugs cold and warm in property.The specific treatment approaches include ventilating lung and expelling pathogens,clearing heat and removing the toxin,tonifying qi and nourishing yin,activating blood and resolving stasis,resolving dampness,and dredging collaterals,to prevent the patient’s condition from getting worse and save the dying.

关键词： COVID-19 dampness epidemic Epidemics harmonizing method protecting middle qi protecting pectoral qi protecting yin fluid

AI-Based Intelligent Model to Predict Epidemics Using Machine Learning Technique

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Intelligent Automation & Soft Computing 2023年第4期36卷 1095-1104页

作者： Liaqat Ali Saif E.A.Alnawayseh Mohammed Salahat Taher M.Ghazal Mohsen A.A.Tomh Beenu Mago College of Engineering and Technology University of Science and Technology of FujairahFujairahUAE Electrical Engineering Department Faculty of EngineeringMutah UniversityJordan School of Information Technology Skyline University CollegeUniversity City Sharjah1797UAE Center for Cyber Security Faculty of Information Science and TechnologyUniversiti Kebangsaan Malaysia43600Malaysia Faculty of Computer Science NCBA&ELahore54660Pakistan School of Information Technology Skyline University CollegeUniversity City Sharjah1797SharjahUAE

The immediate international spread of severe acute respiratory syn-drome revealed the potential threat of infectious diseases in a closely integrated and interdependent world.When an outbreak occurs,each country must have a well-coordinated and preventative plan to address the situation.Information and Communication Technologies have provided innovative approaches to dealing with numerous facets of daily living.Although intelligent devices and applica-tions have become a vital part of our everyday lives,smart gadgets have also led to several physical and psychological health problems in modern society.Here,we used an artiﬁcial intelligence AI-based system for disease prediction using an Artiﬁcial Neural Network(ANN).The ANN improved the regularization of the classiﬁcation model,hence increasing its accuracy.The unconstrained opti-mization model reduced the classiﬁer’s cost function to obtain the lowest possible cost.To verify the performance of the intelligent system,we compared the out-comes of the suggested scheme with the results of previously proposed models.The proposed intelligent system achieved an accuracy of 0.89,and the miss rate 0.11 was higher than in previously proposed models.

关键词： Intelligent model Epidemics artiﬁcial intelligence machine learning techniques

Effect of Rice Sowing Date on Occurrence of Small Brown Planthopper and Epidemics of Planthopper-Transmitted Rice Stripe Viral Disease

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Agricultural Sciences in China 2009年第3期8卷 332-341页

作者： ZHU Jin-liang ZHU Zeng-rong ZHOU Yin LU Qiang SUN Xiang-liang TAO Xian-guo CHEN Yue WANG Hua-di CHENG Jia-an Jiaxing Plant Protection Station Bureau of Agricultural Economy of Jiaxing City Jiaxing 314050 P.R. China State Key Laboratory of Rice Biology/Institute of Insect Sciences Zhejiang University Hangzhou 310029 P.R.China Jiaxing Academy of Agricultural Sciences Jiaxing 314016 P.R.China Food and Oil Station Xiuzhou District Jiaxing 314031 P.R. China Bureau of Plant Protection and Quarantine Department of Agriculture of Zhejiang Province Hangzhou 310020 P.R. China

To understand the relationship between rice sowing date and occurrence of the rice small brown planthopper （SBPH） Laodelphax striatellus Fallen and the Epidemics of the planthopper-transmitted rice stripe viral （RSV） disease, four sowing dates of rice were evaluated in 2006 and 2007. The results showed that the peak density of SBPH and RSV incidence in the nursery and in the transplanted field decreased with the delay of sowing date in single crop of japonica rice in north Zhejiang Province of China. The relationship between seedling RSV incidence at the end of the nursery trial with sowing date was well described by Weibull equation. The area under the curve of population dynamics （AUCPD or planthopper-day accumulation） or the peak density of the planthopper in the nursery could be summarized by a logistic equation. RSV incidence in the transplanted fields could be characterized quantitatively by a multivariate regression equation, including the variables of sowing date, peak density of the vector, and RSV incidence at the end of the nursery trial. That the descriptive model excluded the AUCPD in transplanted field implies that this variable is not necessary in forecasting disease Epidemics in the field. The 2-year experiments sufficiently indicated that suitable sowing of rice could be used as one of the effective measures to control the vector population and therefore the planthopper-transmitted RSV on a larger scale. The optimal sowing date for the single-cropped transplanted japonica rice is recommended from late May to early June in north Zhejiang, China.

关键词： rice sowing date Laodelphax striatellus rice stripe viral disease Epidemics

Outwitting dengue threat and Epidemics resurgence in Asia-Pacific countries: strengthening integrated dengue surveillance, monitoring and response systems

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2016年第1期5卷 480-484页

作者： Ernest Tambo Jun-Hu Chen Xiao-Nong Zhou Emad I.M.Khate Department of Biochemistry and Pharmaceutical Sciences Higher Institute of Public Health SciencesUniversitédes MontagnesBangangtéCameroon Africa Disease Intelligence and Surveillance Communication and Response(Africa DISCoR)FoundationYaoundéCameroon National Institute of Parasitic Diseases Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionShanghai 200025People’s Republic of China Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology of the Chinese Ministry of Health Shanghai 200025People’s Republic of China WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases Shanghai 200025People’s Republic of China Public Health Pests Laboratory JeddahJeddah GovernateSaudi Arabia

Dengue is still a substantial vector-borne viral disease threat and burden of public health importance worldwide.This situation is complicated by dengue virus unprecedented resurgence and persistence of varied serotypes in endemic-prone areas,and man-made and natural activities consequences that promote vector emergence,transmission dynamics and spread across the Asia-Pacific region.There is an urgent need to strengthen operational and contextual surveillance-response research in improving early detection of active reservoir detection,novel drug in case management and quality evidence-based response including the deployment of dengue mass vaccination.Moreover,sustained mapping and watching of dengue risk factors or determinants,performance and outcome indicators of control or elimination programs effectiveness in defining minimum effective data towards community knowledge-based decision-making policy and effective response packages is imperative.Moreover,implementation of a robust,integrated dengue early warning surveillance,monitoring and response systems metrics is required for evidence-based,timely and cost-effective contextual mitigation strategies,and innovative interventions.

关键词： Dengue Epidemics Resurgence Surveillance Monitoring Response China Asia-Pacific

Progress towards dog-mediated rabies elimination in PR China:a scoping review

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2023年第2期12卷 19-35页

作者： Tianren Shen Susan Christina Welburn Long Sun Guo-Jing Yang Key Laboratory of Tropical Translational Medicine of Ministry of Education The School of Tropical MedicineThe First Affiliated HospitalHainan Medical UniversityHaikou571199HainanPeople’s Republic of China Zhejiang University-University of Edinburgh Joint Institute Zhejiang UniversityInternational Campus718 East Haizhou RoadHaining314400People’s Republic of China Infection Medicine Deanery of Biomedical SciencesEdinburgh Medical SchoolCollege of Medicine and Veterinary MedicineThe University of Edinburgh1 George SquareEdinburghEH89JZScotlandUK Department of Infectious Diseases The First Affiliated Hospital of Hainan Medical UniversityHainan Medical UniversityHaikouHainanPeople’s Republic of China

Background Rabies continues to be a serious threat to global public health endangering people’s health and public health safety.In the People’s Republic of China,multi-sectoral and comprehensive prevention and control strategies have aimed to extensively curb human rabies transmission.Here,we examine the current state of rabies infection in China,explore strategic interventions put in place in response to WHO’s ambition of“Zero rabies deaths by 2030”and critically assess the constraints and feasibility of dog-mediated rabies elimination in China.Methods This study analyzed and evaluated the process towards dog-mediated rabies elimination in China from five perspectives:namely,human,dog,policy,challenge,and prospects.Evidence-based data on progress of dog-mediated rabies elimination in China was derived from a number of sources;a literature search was undertaken using PubMed,Web of Science and CNKI databases,distribution data for human rabies cases as derived from the Data-center of the China Public Health Science and policy and document data were obtained from official websites of the relevant China ministries and commissions.Results The incidence of human rabies cases in China have shown a downward trend year-on-year since 2007.Implementation of a government-led,multi-sectoral“One Health”approach to combating rabies has driven down the total number of rabies deaths nationwide to around 200 in 2020.The number of provincial-level administrative divisions(PLADs)reporting human cases of rabies has also decreased to 21 in 2020,13 of which reported less than 10 cases.Furthermore,the number of outpatient visits seeking rabies post-exposure prophylaxis has risen dramatically over the past two decades,with demand being 15 times higher than it was initially.There remain however,significant gaps in rabies elimination outcomes across the different regions of China.To date the target of achieving a canine rabies vaccination rate of>75%has not been met.The challenges of rabies immunization of dogs and dog management in underd

关键词： Rabies Lyssavirus China Elimination Dog Epidemics One Health Neglected Tropical Underreporting

Revisiting classical SIR modelling in light of the COVID-19 pandemic

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2023年第1期8卷 72-83页

作者： Leonid Kalachev Erin L.Landguth Jon Graham Mathematical Sciences University of MontanaMissoulaUSA Center for Population Health Research School of Public and Community Health SciencesUniversity of MontanaMissoulaUSA

Background:Classical infectious disease models during Epidemics have widespread usage,from predicting the probability of new infections to developing vaccination plans for informing policy decisions and public health responses.However,it is important to correctly classify reported data and understand how this impacts estimation of model parameters.The COVID-19 pandemic has provided an abundant amount of data that allow for thorough testing of disease modelling assumptions,as well as how we think about classical infectious disease modelling paradigms.Objective:We aim to assess the appropriateness of model parameter estimates and preiction results in classical infectious disease compartmental modelling frameworks given available data types(infected,active,quarantined,and recovered cases)for situations where just one data type is available to fit the model.Our main focus is on how model prediction results are dependent on data being assigned to the right model compartment.Methods:We first use simulated data to explore parameter reliability and prediction capability with three formulations of the classical Susceptible-Infected-Removed(SIR)modelling framework.We then explore two applications with reported data to assess which data and models are sufficient for reliable model parameter estimation and prediction accuracy:a classical influenza outbreak in a boarding school in England and COVID-19 data from the fall of 2020 in Missoula County,Montana,USA.Results:We demonstrated the magnitude of parameter estimation errors and subsequent prediction errors resulting from data misclassification to model compartments with simulated data.We showed that prediction accuracy in each formulation of the classical disease modelling framework was largely determined by correct data classification versus misclassification.Using a classical example of influenza Epidemics in an England boarding school,we argue that the Susceptible-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered(SIQR)model is more appropriate than the commonly employed SIR model given the

关键词： Basic disease reproduction number Communicable disease control Coronavirus COVID-19 Disease transmission Epidemics Epidemiology Influenza data Mathematical models Montana SIR models

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磔狗与逐疫

先秦、秦汉史

EpiMix:A novel method to estimate effective reproduction number

先秦、秦汉史 2021年第4期

作者：刘思亮

磔狗是一种自殷商时代延续至今的习俗，其中包含了中华民族抗击疫疠的原始记忆。古人将狗的忠诚、警戒、矫捷、司夜等特点与风气、疫疠、鬼怪等联系，认为磔狗可以止风、防疠、抗疫。这种磔狗文化随着时代的推移，内涵不断被丰富。通过... 详细信息

磔狗是一种自殷商时代延续至今的习俗，其中包含了中华民族抗击疫疠的原始记忆。古人将狗的忠诚、警戒、矫捷、司夜等特点与风气、疫疠、鬼怪等联系，认为磔狗可以止风、防疠、抗疫。这种磔狗文化随着时代的推移，内涵不断被丰富。通过对传世文献和出土文献中与磔狗相关的史料的梳理，可以清晰地看到古人对疫病的认识与对抗措施。磔狗文化中“防治未病”、“一气一疫”、关注换季、注重病候转化等认识，对今天仍有现实的借鉴意义。

关键词：磔狗止风疫疠瘟疫出土文献 dog sacrifice preventing feng(风) Epidemics pestilence excavated documents

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2023年第3期8卷 704-716页

作者： Shihui Jin Borame Lee Dickens Jue Tao Lim Alex R.Cook Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health National University of Singapore and National University Health SystemSingapore Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine Nanyang Technological UniversitySingapore Department of Statistics and Data Science National University of SingaporeSingapore

Transmission potential of a pathogen,often quantified by the time-varying reproduction number R t,provides the current pace of infection for a disease and indicates whether an emerging epidemic is under control.In this study,we proposed a novel method,EpiMix,for R t estimation,wherein we incorporated the impacts of exogenous factors and random effects under a Bayesian regression framework.Using Integrated Nested Laplace Approx-imation,EpiMix is able to efficiently generate reliable,deterministic R t estimates.In the simulations and case studies performed,we further demonstrated the method's robust-ness in low-incidence scenarios,together with other merits,including its flexibility in selecting variables and tolerance of varying reporting rates.All these make EpiMix a potentially useful tool for real-time R t estimation provided that the serial interval distri-bution,time series of case counts and external influencing factors are available.

关键词： Epidemics INLA Regression Reproduction number SARS-CoV-2 Transmission dynamics