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A COVID-19 epidemic model with latency period

Infectious Disease modelling 2020年第1期5卷 323-337页

作者： Z.Liu P.Magal O.Seydi G.Webb School of mathematical Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing100875People's Republic of China Univ.Bordeaux France CNRSIMBUMR 5251F-33400TalenceFrance Département Tronc Commun École Polytechnique de ThiésSenegal Mathematics Department Vanderbilt UniversityNashvilleTNUSA

At the beginning of a COVID-19 infection,there is a period of time known as the exposed or latency period,before an infected person is capable of transmitting the infection to another *** develop two differential equations models to account for this *** first is a model that incorporates infected persons in the exposed class,before transmission is *** second is a model that incorporates a time delay in infected persons,before transmission is *** apply both models to the COVID-19 epidemic in *** estimate the epidemiological parameters in the models,such as the transmission rate and the basic reproductive number,using data of reported *** thus evaluate the role of the exposed or latency period in the dynamics of a COVID-19 epidemic.

关键词： Corona virus Reported and unreported cases Isolation Quarantine Public closings epidemic mathematical model

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Lassa hemorrhagic fever model using new generalized Caputo-type fractional derivative operator

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International Journal of modeling, Simulation, and Scientific Computing 2021年第6期12卷 129-149页

作者： Pushpendra Kumar Vedat Suat Erturk Abdullahi Yusuf Tukur Abdulkadir Sulaiman Department of Mathematics and Statistics School of Basic and Applied Sciences Central University of Punjab BathindaPunjab 151001India Department of Mathematics Ondokuz Mayis University Atakum 55200SamsunTurkey Department of Computer Engineering Biruni University Istanbul Turkey Department of Mathematics Science Faculty Federal University DutseJigawa 7156Nigeria

In some of the previous decades, we have observed that mathematical modeling hasbecome one of the most interesting research fields and has attracted many *** this regard, thousands of researchers have proposed different varieties of mathematicalmodels to study the dynamics of a number of real-world problems. This research workis framed to analyzing the structure of the well-known Lassa hemorrhagic epidemic;adangerous epidemic for pregnant women, via new generalized Caputo type nonintegerorder derivative with the help of a modified Predictor–Corrector scheme. Lassa hemorrhagic disease is an epidemical and biocidal fever, whose negative impacts were initiallyrecognized in the countries of Africa. This virus has killed many pregnant women ascompared to the Ebola epidemic. It was noticed that Lassa virus was isolated in Verocell cultures from a blood pattern, and after 12 days it was ejective, after the climb ofthe sickness. In this research study, necessary theorems and lemmas are reminded toprove the existence of a unique solution and stability of given fractional approximationscheme. All necessary results are reminded to confirm the effectiveness of the proposedapproximation algorithm by graphical observations for various fractional-order *** our practical calculations, we plotted the graphs for two different values of naturaldeath rate along with various values of given fractional-order operator. Our major target is to show the importance of the proposed modified version of the Predictor–Correctoralgorithm in epidemic studies by exploring the given Lassa hemorrhagic fever dynamics.

关键词： Lassa hemorrhagic fever epidemic mathematical model new generalized Caputo fractional derivatives predictor–corrector algorithm

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Clarifying predictions for COVID-19 from testing data: The example of New York State

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Infectious Disease modelling 2021年第1期6卷 273-283页

作者： Quentin Griette Pierre Magal Univ.Bordeaux IMBUMR 5251F-33400TalenceFrance CNRS IMBUMR 5251F-33400TalenceFrance

With the spread of COVID-19 across the world,a large amount of data on reported cases has become *** are studying here a potential bias induced by the daily number of tests which may be insufficient or vary over ***,tests are hard to produce at the early stage of the epidemic and can therefore be a limiting factor in the detection of *** a limitation may have a strong impact on the reported cases ***,some cases may be missing from the official count because the number of tests was not sufficient on a given *** this work,we propose a new differential equation epidemic model which uses the daily number of tests as an *** obtain a good agreement between the model simulations and the reported cases data coming from the state of New *** also explore the relationship between the dynamic of the number of tests and the dynamics of the *** obtain a good match between the data and the outcome of the ***,by multiplying the number of tests by 2,5,10,and 100 we explore the consequences for the number of reported cases.

关键词： Corona virus Testing data Reported and unreported cases Isolation Quarantine Public closings epidemic mathematical model

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Estimating SVCV waterborne transmission and predicting experimental epidemic development:A modeling study using a machine learning approach

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Water Biology and Security 2024年第1期3卷 60-70页

作者： Jiaji Pan Qijin Zeng Wei Qin Jixiang Chu Haibo Jiang Haiyan Chang Jun Xiao Hao Feng State Key Laboratory of Developmental Biology of Freshwater Fish College of Life ScienceHunan Normal UniversityChangsha410081China College of Engineering and Design Hunan Normal UniversityChangsha410081China

Viral infectious diseases significantly threaten the sustainability of freshwater fish *** lack of studies on epidemic transmission patterns and mechanisms inhibits the development of containment strategies from the viewpoint of veterinary public *** study raises an epidemic mathematical model considering water transmission with the aim of analyzing the transmission process more *** basic reproduction number R0 was derived by the model parameter including the water transmission coefficient and was used for the analysis of the virus *** viremia of carp virus(SVCV)and zebrafish were used as model viruses and animals,respectively,to conduct the transmission *** through water was achieved by connecting two aquarium tanks with a water channel but blocking the fish movement between the *** the collected experimental data,we determined the optimal hybrid machine learning algorithm to analyze the transmission process using an established mathematical *** addition,future transmission was predicted and validated using the epidemic model and an optimal ***,the sensitivity of model parameters and the simulations of R0 variation were performed based on the modified complex epidemic *** study is of significance in providing theoretical guidance for minimizing R0 by manipulating model parameters with containment *** importantly,since the modified model and algorithm demonstrated better performance in handling freshwater fish transmission problems,this study advances the future application of transmissible disease modeling with larger datasets in freshwater fish aquaculture.

关键词： epidemic mathematical model Hybrid machine learning algorithm Reproduction number Sensitivity analysis SVCV transmission

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