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应急状态下新冠流行曲线预测的方法学研究——基于北京市百度搜索和传统流感样病例监测

Engineering 2023年第12期31卷 112-119页

作者： Ting Zhang Liuyang Yang Xuan Han Guohui Fan Jie Qian Xuancheng Hu Shengjie Lai Zhongjie Li Zhimin Liu Luzhao Feng Weizhong Yang School of Population Medicine and Public Health Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences&Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijing 100730China Department of management science and information system Faculty of Management and EconomicsKunming University of Science and TechnologyKunming 650504China WorldPop School of Geography and Environmental ScienceUniversity of SouthamptonSouthampton SO171BJUK The Third Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University Kunming 650118China

Surveillance is an essential work on infectious diseases prevention and *** the pandemic occurred,the inadequacy of traditional surveillance was exposed,but it also provided a valuable opportunity to explore new surveillance *** study aimed to estimate the transmission dynamics and epidemic curve of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-Co V-2)Omicron BF.7 in Beijing under the emergent situation using Baidu index and influenza-like illness(ILI)surveillance.A novel hybrid model(multiattention bidirectional gated recurrent unit(MABG)-susceptible-exposed-infected-removed(SEIR))was developed,which leveraged a deep learning algorithm(MABG)to scrutinize the past records of ILI occurrences and the Baidu index of diverse symptoms such as fever,pyrexia,cough,sore throat,anti-fever medicine,and runny *** considering the current Baidu index and the correlation between ILI cases and coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)cases,a transmission dynamics model(SEIR)was formulated to estimate the transmission dynamics and epidemic curve of SARS-Co *** the COVID-19 pandemic,when conventional surveillance measures have been suspended temporarily,cases of ILI can serve as a useful indicator for estimating the epidemiological trends of *** the specific case of Beijing,it has been ascertained that cumulative infection attack rate surpass 80.25%(95%confidence interval(95%CI):77.51%-82.99%)since December 17,2022,with the apex of the outbreak projected to transpire on December *** culmination of existing patients is expected to occur three days subsequent to this *** reproduction number(Rt)represents the average number of secondary infections generated from a single infected individual at a specific point in time during an epidemic,remained below 1 since December 17,*** traditional disease surveillance systems should be complemented with information from modern surveillance data such as online data sources with advanced techn

关键词： COVID-19 epidemic curve Baidu search engine Influenza-like illness Deep learning Transmission dynamics model

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Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 129-141页

作者： Junling Ma Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of VictoriaVictoriaBCV8W 2Y2Canada

The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic,and is also closely related to the basic reproduction *** the growth rate from the epidemic curve can be a challenge,because of its decays with *** fast epidemics,the estimation is subject to over-fitting due to the limited number of data points available,which also limits our choice of models for the epidemic *** discuss the estimation of the growth rate using maximum likelihood method and simple models.

关键词： epidemic curve Exponential growth rate Maximum likelihood estimation Phenomenological models

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Estimating the quarantine failure rate for COVID-19

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 924-929页

作者： Meili Li Qianqian Yuan Pian Chen Baojun Song Junling Ma College of Science Donghua UniversityShanghai201620China Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Montclair State UniversityMontclairNJ07043USA Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of VictoriaVictoriaBCV8W 2Y2Canada

Quarantine is a crucial control measure in reducing imported COVID-19 cases and community ***,some quarantined COVID-19 patients may show symptoms after finishing quarantine due to a long median incubation period,potentially causing community *** assess the recommended 14-day quarantine policy,we develop a formula to estimate the quarantine failure rate from the incubation period distribution and the epidemic *** found that the quarantine failure rate increases with the exponential growth rate of the epidemic *** apply our formula to United States,Canada,and Hubei Province,*** the lockdown of Wuhan City,the quarantine failure rate in Hubei Province is about 4.1%.If the epidemic curve flattens or slowly decreases,the failure rate is less than 2.8%.The failure rate in US may be as high as 8.3%-11.5%due to a shorter 10-day quarantine period,while the failure rate in Canada may be between 2.5%and 3.9%.A 21-day quarantine period may reduce the failure rate to 0.3%-0.5%.

关键词： Quarantine Incubation period Exponential growth rate epidemic curve

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Resistance of Different Tomato Varieties against Tomato Powdery Mildew during Different Growth Stages

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Plant Diseases and Pests 2013年第2期4卷 15-17,44页

作者： Dong Huafang School of Agricultural Sciences Xichang College

The pathogen of tomato powdery mildew （Oidium neolycopersici Kiss） was simultaneously inoculated into four varieties during seedling, flowering and fruiting stages under the same environmental conditions by inducing inoculation method, so as to study the resistance during different growth stages. Different varieties of plants and the plants during different growth stages were investigated after inoculation for 12 d, and disease epidemic curves were drawn according to survey data. The results showed that different varieties performed different resistance against powdery mildew and the same variety also showed different resistance during different growth stages. The susceptible extent of Lujia was the heaviest during seedling and flowering sages, while it showed the strongest resistance during fruiting stage; improved 96 -8 showed the highest resistance during seedling stage, but performed the lowest resistance during fruiting stage.

关键词： Tomato Different growth stages Powdery mildew Disease epidemic curve

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