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Economic development, energy demand, and carbon emission prospects ofChina's provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan period: Application ofCMRCGE model

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2019年第3期10卷 165-173页

作者： LI Ji-Feng GU A-Lun MA Zhong-Yu ZHANG Cheng-Long SUN Zhen-Qing State Information Center Beijing100045China Institute o f energy Environment and EconomyTsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China State Grid energy Research Institute Co”Ltd”Beijing 102209China Tianjin Science and Technology University Tianjin300222China

This study focuses on a national regional coordinated development strategy and adopts China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium model to analyze the economic and social development, energy demand, and carbon emissions of the provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2021 2025) period based on the economic development and energy demand since the New Normal. The main conclusions are the following: 1) Under the guidance of the regional coordinated development strategy, 13 provinces/municipalities are expected to have a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of more than US$15,000, and 16 provinces/municipalities will have a per capita GDP of US$10,000 15,000. All provincial economies are expected to achieve steady and rapid development by the end of the 14th FYP. 2) The total energy consumption of the provinces is expected to reach 5.45 Gtce (excluding Tibet) in 2025, and the average annual growth rate is approximately 1.5%. The growth of energy demand will remain in low speed. The key point of energy demand will gradually shift from the eastern to the middle area, while the proportion of energy use in the western provinces will remain stable, which is consistent with the economic development stage and regional coordinated development strategy. 3) The annual average carbon intensity (mainly considering carbon emissions from energy use) of the provinces will approximately with most provinces dropping by over 4.0%. The trend of a considerable decline in carbon intensity, as observed in recent years, is expected to continue.

关键词： Coordinated development CMRCGE model 14th Five-Year Plan energy demand Carbon emissions

Overview of the Global Electricity System in Oman Considering energy demand Model Forecast

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energy Engineering 2023年第2期120卷 409-423页

作者： Ahmed Al-Abri Kenneth E.Okedu Department of Electrical and Communication Engineering National University of Science and TechnologyPC 111MuscatSultanate of Oman Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering Nisantasi UniversityIstanbulTurkey

Lately,in modern smart power grids,energy demand for accurate forecast of electricity is gaining attention,with increased interest of *** is due to the fact that a good energy demand forecast would lead to proper responses for electricity *** addition,proper energy demand forecast would ensure efficient planning of the electricity industry and is critical in the scheduling of the power grid capacity and management of the entire power *** most power systems are been deregulated and with the rapid introduction and development of smart-metering technologies in Oman,new opportunities may arise considering the efficiency and reliability of the power system;like price-based demand response *** programs could either be a large scale for household,commercial or industrial ***,excellent demand forecasting models are crucial for the deployment of these smart metering in the power grid based on good knowledge of the electricity market ***,in this paper,an overview of the Oman regulatory regime,financial mechanism,price control,and distribution system security standard were *** so,the energy demand forecast in Oman was analysed,using the econometric model to forecasts its energy peak *** energy econometric analysis in this study describes the relationship between the growth of historical electricity consumption and macro-economic parameters(by region,and by tariff),considering a case study of Mazoon Electricity Distribution Company(MZEC),which is one of the major power distribution companies in Oman,for effective energy demand in the power grid.

关键词： energy forecast energy demand load demand power grids electricity sector

Rooftop photovoltaic （PV） halls： Achieving economic energy demand systems for industrial benefit via lowering

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Frontiers of Architectural Research 2012年第4期1卷 326-333页

作者： Bruno Lee Marija Trcka Jan L.M. Hensen Materials innovation institute (M2i) Delft 2628 The Netherlands Department of the Built Environment Eindhoven University of Technology (TU/e) Eindhoven 5612 AZ The Netherlands

Industrial hails are characterized with their retatively high roof-to-floor ratio, which facilitates ready deployment of renewable energy generation, such as photovoltaic （PV） systems, on the rooftop. To promote deployment of renewable energy generation, feed-in tariff （FIT） higher than the electricity rate is available in many countries to subsidize the capital investment. FIT comes in different forms. For net FIT, in order to maximize the economic benefit, surplus electridty generation at each hour is desirable. One way to achieve surplus electricity generation is by increasing generation capacity, which is synonymous to higher capital investment. In fact, surplus electricity generation can also be achieved by lowering the energy demand of the building. This particularly the case for industrial hatls, which are usually subject to high energy demand for space conditioning in order to remove the excess heat gain due to the many power-intensive processes. Building energy performance simulation toots can be used to explore the different building design options that could lower the energy demand. In this paper, single-objective optimization on investment return will be deployed to study the cost effectiveness among different options in lowering energv demand. It Will-be demonstrated with a case study of a warehouse.

关键词： Industrial halls Photovoltaic PV systems Cost-benefit analysis energy performancesimulation Optimization energy demand

Urban Physics： Effect of the micro-climate on comfort, health and energy demand

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Frontiers of Architectural Research 2012年第3期1卷 197-228页

作者： Peter Moonen Thijs Defraeye Viktor Dorer Bert Blocken Jan Carmeliet ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich ZUrich Switzerland Empa Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology KUL Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Leuven Belgium TU/e Eindhoven University of Technology Eindhoven The Netherlands

The global trend towards urbanisation explains the growing interest in the study of the modification of the urban climate due to the heat island effect and global warming, and its impact on enersy use of buildings. Also urban comfort, health and durability, referring respectively to pedestrian wind/ thermal comfort, pollutant dispersion and wind-driven rain are of interest. Urban Physics is a well- established discipline, incorporating relevant branches of physics, environmental chemistry, aerodynamics, meteorolosy and statistics. Therefore, Urban Physics is well positioned to provide keycontributions to the current urban problems and challenges. The present paper addresses the role of Urban Physics in the study of wind comfort, thermal comfort, energy demand, pollutant dispersion and wind-driven rain. Furthermore, the three major research methods applied in Urban Physics, namely field experiments, wind tunnel experiments and numerical simulations are discussed. Case studies illustrate the current challenges and the relevant contributions of Urban Physics.

关键词： Fietd experiments Wind tunnet experi-ments Nurnerical simutations Computationat fluiddynamics (CFD) Wind comfort Thermal comfort energy demand Pollutant dispersion Wind-driven rain

Prediction of primary energy demand in China based on AGAEDE optimal model

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2016年第1期16卷 16-29页

作者： Lu Liu Junbing Huang Shiwei Yu School of Economics Southwestern University of Finance and Economics School of Economics and Management China University of Geosciences

In this article,we present an application of Adaptive Genetic Algorithm energy demand Estimation(AGAEDE) optimal model to improve the efficiency of energy demand *** coefficients of the two forms of the model(both linear and quadratic) are optimized by AGA using factors,such as GDP,population,urbanization rate,and R&D inputs together with energy consumption structure,that affect *** the spurious regression phenomenon occurs for a wide range of time series analysis in econometrics,we also discuss this problem for the current artificial intelligence *** simulation results show that the proposed model is more accurate and reliable compared with other existing methods and the China's energy demand will be 5.23 billion TCE in 2020 according to the average results of the AGAEDE optimal *** discussion illustrates that there will be great pressure for China to fulfill the planned goal of controlling energy demand set in the National energy demand Project(2014—2020).

关键词： AGAEDE optimal model spurious regression artificial intelligence model energy demand

Scenario Formation of energy demand and CO_2 Emissionsfor Sustainable China

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2008年第4期6卷 41-45页

作者： Wei Baoren Yagita Hiroshi Suzhou University of Science and Technology Suzhou Jiangsu 215011 China Nippon Institute of Technology Saitama Pref. 345-8501 Japan

Co-integration theory has been employed in this paper and Granger causes are found between urbanization rate and GDP, between capital stock and GDP. Scenario analysis of GDP is performed using the GDP model established in the paper. The energy consumptions in Germany, Japan and other developed countries are analyzed and compared with the energy consumption in China. Environmental friendly scenario of energy demand and CO2 emissions for sustainable China has been formed based on the results of comparison. Under environmental friendly scenario, the primary energy consumption will be 4.31 billion ton coal equivalence （tee） and CO2 emissions will be 1.854 billion t-c in 2050; energy per capital will be 3.06 tee that is 1.8 times of energy consumed in 2005 in China and 51% of consumed energy per capital in Japan in 2003. In 2050, the energy requirement of unit GDP will be 20% lower than that of Germany in 2003, but will be still 37% higher than that in Japan in 2003. It is certain that to fulfill the environmental friendly Scenario of energy demand and CO2 emissions is a difficult task and it needs long term efforts of the whole society, not only in production sectors but also in service and household sectors,

关键词： energy demand CO2 emissions scenario analysis cointegration

Long-term energy demand and CO_2 Problem in the PRC

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Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics 1991年第1期2卷 29-41页

作者： LQ YingzhongInst. for Techno-Economics and energy System Analysis. P.O. Box 1021, Beijing 102201, China Inst. for Techno-Economics and energy System Analysis. P.O. Box 1021 Beijing 102201 China

The long-term energy demand in China and the-Chinese share in global CO2 emission are forecasted on the basis of scenarios of population growth and economy development up to 2050 proposed in view of the interaction of energy, economy, environment and social development. The total energy demand in 2050 will reach 4.4~ 5.4 billion tce. It is shown in energy supply analysis that coal is China’s major energy in primary energy supply. The share of CO2 emission in the future Chinese energy system will be out of proportion to its energy consumption share because of the high persentage of coal to be consumed. It will reach about 27%. The nuclear option which would replace 30.7% of coal in the total primary energy supply will reduce the share by 9.8%. So the policy considerations on the future Chinese energy system is of great importance to the global CO2 issues.

关键词： Long-term forecast energy demand CO2emission Climate change.

Study on the Determinants of energy demand in China

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Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics 2002年第3期13卷 17-23页

作者： W ei W eixian Institute of Finance, Xiamen University, Xianmen 361005, P.R.China Institute of Finance Xiamen University Xiamen 361005 P. R. China

Based on the modern economic theory and the characteristics of China's energy consumption, this paper analyzes the determinants of energy demand in China, builds up a China's energy demand model, and examines the long-run relationship between China's aggregate energy consumption and the main economic variables such as GDP by using the Johansen multivariate approach. It is found that there exists unique long-run relationship among the variables in the model over the sampling period. An error-correction model provides an appropriate framework for forecasting the short-run fluctuations in the aggregate demand of China.

关键词： energy demand Cointegration Error-correction model.

Impact of Economic Transformation on energy demand in Southwest China and Forecast

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经济管理学刊（中英文版） 2022年第2期11卷 54-60页

作者： Yuanyao Gao Southwest Petroleum University ChengduSichuan610500China

"Economic transformation"has become the main path to promote China's social and economic development,and many regions have increased the importance and attention to"economic transformation",and the Southwest region is no *** cities in Southwest China are developing new energy sources to promote economic development and economic *** transformation and economic development in Southwest China are mutually influencing and interacting,while energy development in Southwest China and its local economic development are mutually promoting and influencing,so economic transformation also affects energy demand and development in Southwest *** importance of economic transformation should be taken into consideration.

关键词： Southwest Region energy demand Economic Transformation Impact and Forecast