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VOC emission caps constrained by air quality targets based on response surface model:A case study in the Pearl River Delta Region,China

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2023年第1期123卷 430-445页

作者： Ya’nan Hu Bowen Shi Xin Yuan Chuanzeng Zheng Qing’e Sha Yufan Yu Zhijiong Huang Junyu Zheng Institute for Environmental and Climate Research Jinan UniversityGuangzhou 511436China Guangdong Polytechnic of Environmental Protection Engineering Guangzhou 528216China

Because of the recent growth in ground-level ozone and increased emission of volatile organic compounds(VOCs),VOC emission control has become a major concern in China.In response,emission caps to control VOC have been stipulated in recent policies,but few of them were constrained by the co-control target of PM_(2.5)and ozone,and discussed the factor that influence the emission cap formulation.Herein,we proposed a framework for quantification of VOC emission caps constrained by targets for PM_(2.5)and ozone via a new response surface modeling(RSM)technique,achieving 50%computational cost savings of the quantification.In the Pearl River Delta(PRD)region,the VOC emission caps constrained by air quality targets varied greatly with the NOxemission reduction level.If control measures in the surrounding areas of the PRD region were not considered,there could be two feasible strategies for VOC emission caps to meet air quality targets(160μg/m^(3)for the maximum 8-hr-average 90th-percentile(MDA8-90%)ozone and 25μg/m^(3)for the annual average of PM_(2.5)):a moderate VOC emission cap withemission reductions or a notable VOC emission cap with>60%NOxemission reductions.If the ozone concentration target were reduced to 155μg/m^(3),deep NOxemission reductions is the only feasible ozone control measure in PRD.Optimization of seasonal VOC emission caps based on the Monte Carlo simulation could allow us to gain higher ozone benefits or greater VOC emission reductions.If VOC emissions were further reduced in autumn,MDA8-90%ozone could be lowered by 0.3-1.5μg/m^(3),equaling the ozone benefits of 10%VOC emission reduction measures.The method for VOC emission cap quantification and optimization proposed in this study could provide scientific guidance for coordinated control of regional PM_(2.5)and O_(3)pollution in China.

关键词： Volatile organic compounds emission caps Air quality targets Response surface model Monte Carlo(MC)simulations

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