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An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus(2019-nCov)

Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 248-255页

作者： Biao Tang Nicola Luigi Bragazzi Qian Li Sanyi Tang Yanni Xiao Jianhong Wu The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityXi’an710049People’s Republic of China Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Department of Mathematics and StatisticsYork UniversityTorontoOntarioM3J 1P3Canada School of Mathematics and Statistics Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityXi’an710049People’s Republic of China School of Mathematics and Information Science Shaanxi Normal UniversityXi’an710119People’s Republic of China Fields-CQAM Laboratory of Mathematics for Public Health York UniversityTorontoOntarioM3J 1P3Canada

The basic reproduction number of an infectious agent is the average number of infections one case can generate over the course of the infectious period,in a naïve,uninfected *** is well-known that the estimation of this number may vary due to several methodological issues,including different assumptions and choice of parameters,utilized models,used datasets and estimation *** the spreading of the novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV)infection,the reproduction number has been found to vary,reflecting the dynamics of transmission of the coronavirus outbreak as well as the case reporting *** to significant variations in the control strategies,which have been changing over time,and thanks to the introduction of detection technologies that have been rapidly improved,enabling to shorten the time from infection/symptoms onset to diagnosis,leading to faster confirmation of the new coronavirus cases,our previous estimations on the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV need to be *** using time-dependent contact and diagnose rates,we refit our previously proposed dynamics transmission model to the data available until January 29th,2020 and re-estimated the effective daily reproduction ratio that better quantifies the evolution of the *** estimated when the effective daily reproduction ratio has fallen below 1 and when the epidemics will *** updated findings suggest that the best measure is persistent and strict *** epidemics will continue to grow,and can peak soon with the peak time depending highly on the public health interventions practically implemented.

关键词： Novel coronavirus emerging and reemerging pathogens Mathematical modeling Basic reproduction number Effective daily reproduction ratio

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