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第30届中国控制与决策会议

作者： Yunong Zhang Ruifeng Wang Min Yang Mingjie Zhu Chengxu Ye School of Information Science and Technology Sun Yat-sen University (SYSU) School of Computer Science Qinghai Normal University

In this paper, an improved method named addition-subtraction frequency（ASF） method, which is based on commensurability method, is used to predict the possible el nino events in the future. The paper first introduces commensurability method and clarifies the promotion of ASF method compared with the former. Additionally, this paper uses previous data to research the correct and inaccurate predictions of ASF method. Finally, ASF method is used to predict possible el nino events in 2019, 2020 and so forth.

关键词： Addition-subtraction frequency method Commensurability method el nino events Disaster prediction

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The relationship between ENSO cycle and temperature,precipitation and runoff in the Qilian mountain area

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2003年第3期13卷 293-298页

作者： LAN Yongchao,DING Yongjian,KANG Ersi,ZHANG Jishi(Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, CAS, Lanzhou 730000, China) Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute CAS Lanzhou 730000

el nino and La Nina are the events concerned internationally. The corresponding relationship between el nino events, temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Qilian mountain area are analyzed according to the date from the weather and the hydrometric stations in the area, the results show that effects of el nino events to temperature, precipitation and runoff are different in the different time and zones. When el nino occurs, temperature rises, but precipitation and runoff decrease in the whole Qilian mountain area, especially in the east and middle parts of the area. Temperature rises, precipitation and runoff still decrease in the eastern Qilian mountain area in the next year el nino occurring, but decrease extent is fewer. There are not obvious relationship between temperature, precipitation and runoff with el nino events in the western Qilian mountain area.

关键词： ENSO cycle el nino events runoff Qilian mountain area

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Land-Sea Interactions in Punta China(Baja California,Mexico):Addressing Anthropic and Natural Disturbances in a Retrospective Context

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Journal of Environmental Protection 2014年第16期5卷 1520-1530页

作者： Guillermo Torres-Moye Anamaria Escofet Department of Biology Faculty of Marine SciencesAutonomous University of Baja CaliforniaEnsenadaMexico Department of Marine Ecology Center of Scientific Research and High Education of EnsenadaEnsenadaMexico

In extensive SCUBA-diving surveys of kelp forests along 350 km of the Baja California peninsula coastline from the US-México borderline to Sacramento Reef, benthic species richness has been satisfactorily explained by environmental structural features such as bottom rugosity. However, values at Punta China embayment (PCE) departed significantly from the model whereas the adjacent Santo Tomás cove (STC) did not. In addition, in August 20, 2011, visibility was under 1 m at PCE and over 10 m at STC;these conditions presumably reflect the influence of the limestone extraction industry located on land. In order to investigate the case allowing for temporal comparisons, we set a regional research scenario similar to a 1993 pioneer study, comprising PCE and two contrasting sites (STC to the North, and San José embayment, SJE, to the South). Land and sea side were addressed separately, and a 1950-2012 time-span period was set in order to perform the analysis of retrospective data. Our results suggest that the current scenario results from the combined influence of a local, anthropic and chronic land-based disturbance represented by the progressive expansion of limestone extraction industry, and the episodic influence of a natural, large scale and acute disturbance represented by the 1982-83 and 1997-98 el nino events. The influence of both driving forces, however, is not necessarily equally distributed in space, yielding a regional mosaic of natural and social conditions. Our results confirm and expand previous knowledge in the area, and may contribute to?future basic and applied research.

关键词： Mexican Pacific Embayments Mining Industry el nino events Kelp Beds Safari Method

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