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Effect of el nino southern oscillations on the incidence of enteric fever in Ahmedabad,India from 1985 to 2017

Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2019年第12期12卷 552-558页

作者： Veena Iyer Susanna Abraham Cottagiri Ayushi Sharma Divya Nair Mehul S.Raval Bhavin Solanki Dileep Mavalankar Indian Institute of Public Health Gandhinagar Opposite Air Force HQNear Lekavada Bus StopCRPF P.O.Gandhinagar 382042GujaratIndia ICT Department School of TechnologyPandit Deendayal Petroleum UniversityGandhinagarIndia Medical Officer of Health Ahmedabad Municipal CorporationAhmedabadGujaratIndia

Objective:To explore the relationship between climate variables and enteric fever in the city of Ahmedabad and report preliminary findings regarding the influence of el nino southern oscillations and Indian Ocean Dipole over enteric fever ***:A total of 29808 Widal positive enteric fever cases reported by the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation and local climate data in 1985-2017 from Ahmedabad Meteorology Department were *** nino,La Nina,neutral and Indian Ocean Dipole years as reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for the same period were compared for the incidence of enteric ***:Population-normalized average monthly enteric fever case rates were the highest for el nino years(25.5),lower for La Nina years(20.5)and lowest for neutral years(17.6).A repeated measures ANOVA analysis showed no significant difference in case rates during the three yearly el nino southern oscillations ***,visual profile plot of estimated marginal monthly means showed two distinct characteristics:an early rise and peaking of cases in the el nino and La Nina years,and a much more restrained rise without conspicuous peaks in neutral *** analysis based on monthly el nino southern oscillations categories was conducted to detect differences in median monthly case *** case rates in strong and moderate el nino months and strong La Nina months were significantly dissimilar from that during neutral months(Pel nino southern oscillations events influence the incidence of enteric fever cases in Ahmedabad,and further investigation from more cities and towns is required.

关键词： Enteric fever and climate el nino,La Nina and Enteric fever el nino southern oscillations Typhoid Indian Ocean Dipole Salmonella and climate

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