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Understanding the el nio costero of 2017: The Definition Problem and Challenges of Climate Forecasting and Disaster Responses

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2017年第4期8卷 489-492页

作者： Ivan J.Ramírez Fernando Briones Department of Anthropology Colorado State University Consortium for Capacity Building/INSTAAR University of Colorado Graduate Program in Public Health Colorado State University

This preliminary study examines the definition problem and challenges of climate forecasting and disaster responses associated with the el nio costero(coastal) of2017, which developed rapidly with no warning and had catastrophic effects in Peru. Such a localized el nio was not documented since 1925. An initial review suggests that in addition to the characteristics of the event(surprise),government responses may have been inadequate(as media reported) because of conflicting forecast reports(U.S. and Peru), which provoked a hydrometeorological debate and stifled decision making. Partly to blame was the el nio definition problem, which can cause uncertainty and affect perception of risk, depending on which region of the equatorial Pacific one uses to identify an event. Responses were further complicated by the fact that some regions within Peru were experiencing drought prior to the el nio costero's onset and impacts from the el nio 2015–2016 were less than expected. Furthermore, a new government was in place, which may have hindered action. Thus, el nio costero provides lessons to heed, not only with respect to the forecast information, but also with reference to the context of the forecast and disaster setting, which can influence disaster responses to hydrometeorological threats.

关键词： Disaster risk reduction Ecuador el nio costero el nio forecast el nio-Southern oscillation Peru Teleconnections

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