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Evaluation of the influence of el niño–southern oscillation on air quality in southern China from long-term historical observations

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Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering 2022年第2期16卷 151-164页

作者： Shansi Wang Siwei Li Jia Xing Jie Yang Jiaxin Dong Yu Qin Shovan Kumar Sahu School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering Wuhan UniversityWuhan 430079China State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying Mapping and Remote SensingWuhan UniversityWuhan 430079China School of Environment Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Map Institute of Guangdong Province Guangzhou 510075China

Previous studies demonstrated that the el niño–southern oscillation(ENSo)could modulate regional climate thus influencing air quality in the low-middle latitude regions like southern China.However,such influence has not been well evaluated at a long-term historical scale.To filling the gap,this study investigated two-decade(2002 to 2020)aerosol concentration and particle size in southern China during the whole dynamic development of ENSo phases.Results suggest strong positive correlations between aerosol optical depth(AoD)and ENSo phases,as low AoD occurred during el niño while high AoD occurred during La niña event.Such correlations are mainly attributed to the variation of atmospheric circulation and precipitation during corresponding ENSo phase.Analysis of the angstrom exponent(AE)anomalies further confirmed the circulation pattern,as negative AE anomalies is pronounced in el niño indicating the enhanced transport of sea salt aerosols from the South China Sea,while the La niña event exhibits positive AE anomalies which can be attributed to the enhanced import of northern fine anthropogenic aerosols.This study further quantified the AoD variation attributed to changes in ENSo phases and anthropogenic emissions.Results suggest that the long-term AoD variation from 2002 to 2020 in southern China is mostly driven(by 64.2%)by the change of anthropogenic emissions from 2002 to 2020.However,the ENSo presents dominant influence(70.5%)on year-to-year variations of AoD during 2002–2020,implying the importance of ENSo on varying aerosol concentration in a short-term period.

关键词： El Niño-Southern Oscillation Aerosol concentration Aerosol particle size Contribution separation Decadal trend southern China

Enhanced Seasonal Predictability of Spring Soil Moisture over the Indo-China Peninsula for Eastern China Summer Precipitation under Non-ENSo Conditions

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第9期40卷 1632-1648页

作者： Chujie GAo Gen LI College of oceanography&State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Hohai UniversityNanjing 210024China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Tropical oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China

Seasonal prediction of summer precipitation over eastern China is closely linked to the East Asian monsoon circulation,which is largely affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSo).In this study,results show that spring soil moisture(SM)over the Indo-China peninsula(ICP)could be a reliable seasonal predictor for eastern China summer precipitation under non-ENSo conditions.When springtime SM anomalies are present over the ICP,they trigger a structured response in summertime precipitation over most of eastern China.The resultant south-to-north,tri-polar configuration of precipitation anomalies has a tendency to yield increased(decreased)precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and decreased(increased)in South and North China with a drier(wetter)spring soil condition in the ICP.The analyses show that ENSo exerts a powerful control on the East Asian circulation system in the ENSo-decaying summer.In the case of ENSo forcing,the seasonal predictability of the ICP spring SM for eastern China summer precipitation is suppressed.However,in the absence of the influence of ENSo sea surface temperature anomalies from the preceding winter,the SM anomalies over the ICP induce abnormal local heating and a consequent geopotential height response owing to its sustained control on local temperature,which could,in turn,lead to abnormal eastern China summer precipitation by affecting the East Asian summer monsoon circulation.The present findings provide a better understanding of the complexity of summer climate predictability over eastern China,which is of potential significance for improving the livelihood of the people.

关键词： summer precipitation El Niño-Southern Oscillation soil moisture Indo-China Peninsula eastern China East Asian summer monsoon

Will the Historic Southeasterly Wind over the Equatorial Pacific in March 2022 Trigger a Third-year La niña Event?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第1期40卷 6-13页

作者： Xianghui FANG Fei ZHENG Kexin LI Zeng-Zhen HU Hongli REN Jie WU Xingrong CHEN Weiren LAN Yuan YUAN Licheng FENG Qifa CAI Jiang ZHU Department of Atmospheric and oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China International Center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAACollege ParkMD 20740USA State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China National Climate Center Beijing 100081China National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Beijing 100081China Mailbox 5111 Beijing 100094China

Based on the updates of the Climate Prediction Center and International Research Institute for Climate and Society(CPC/IRI)and the China Multi-Model Ensemble(CMME)El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSo)outlook issued in April 2022,La niña is favored to continue through the boreal summer and fall,indicating a high possibility of a three-year La niña(2020-23).It would be the first three-year La niña since the 1998-2001 event,which is the only observed three-year La niña event since 1980.By examining the status of air-sea fields over the tropical Pacific in March 2022,it can be seen that while the thermocline depths were near average,the southeasterly wind stress was at its strongest since 1980.Here,based on a quaternary linear regression model that includes various relevant air-sea variables over the equatorial Pacific in March,we argue that the historic southeasterly winds over the equatorial Pacific are favorable for the emergence of the third-year La niña,and both the anomalous easterly and southerly wind stress components are important and contribute~50%of the third-year La niña growth,respectively.Additionally,the possible global climate impacts of this event are discussed.

关键词： El Niño-Southern Oscillation three-year La niña strongest southeasterly wind air-sea interaction

The Subsurface and Surface Indian ocean Dipoles and Their Association with ENSo in CMIP6 models

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第6期40卷 975-987页

作者： Ge SoNG Rongcai REN State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

This study assesses the reproducibility of 31 historical simulations from 1850 to 2014 in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6) for the subsurface(Sub-IoD) and surface Indian ocean Dipole(IoD) and their association with el ni?o-southern oscillation(ENSo). Most CMIP6 models can reproduce the leading east-west dipole oscillation mode of heat content anomalies in the tropical Indian ocean(TIo) but largely overestimate the amplitude and the dominant period of the Sub-IoD. Associated with the much steeper west-to-east thermocline tilt of the TIo, the vertical coupling between the Sub-IoD and IoD is overly strong in most CMIP6 models compared to that in the ocean Reanalysis System 4(oRAS4). Related to this, most models also show a much tighter association of Sub-IoD and IoD events with the canonical ENSo than observations. This explains the more(less) regular Sub-IoD and IoD events in autumn in those models with stronger(weaker) surface-subsurface coupling in TIo. Though all model simulations feature a consistently low bias regarding the percentage of the winter–spring Sub-IoD events co-occurring with a Central Pacific(CP) ENSo, the linkage between a westward-centered CP-ENSo and the Sub-IoD that occurs in winter–spring, independent of the IoD, is well reproduced.

关键词： CMIP6 subsurface Indian ocean Dipole surface Indian ocean Dipole El Niño-Southern Oscillation

CoVID-19 and Ecosyndemic Vulnerability: Implications for el niño-Sensitive Countries in Latin America

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2021年第1期12卷 147-156页

作者： Ivan J.Ramírez Jieun Lee Department of Health and Behavioral Sciences University of Colorado DenverDenverCO 80217USA Consortium for Capacity Building Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research(INSTAAR)University of Colorado BoulderBoulderCO 80308USA Department of Geography GISand SustainabilityUniversity of Northern ColoradoGreeleyCO 80639USA

Latin America has emerged as an epicenter of the CoVID-19 pandemic.Brazil,Peru,and Ecuador report some of the highest CoVID-19 rates of incidence and deaths in the region.These countries also face synergistic threats from multiple infectious diseases(that is,ecosyndemic)and quasi-periodic el niño-related hazards every few years.For example,Peru,which is highly sensitive to el niño,already copes with an ecosyndemic health burden that heightens during and following weather and climate extreme events.Using an ecosyndemic lens,which draws on a multi-disease hazard context of place,this commentary highlights the importance of el niño as a major factor that not only may aggravate CoVID-19 incidence in the future,but also the broader health problem of ecosyndemic vulnerability in Latin America.

关键词： Coronavirus CoVID-19 Ecosyndemic el niño El Niño-Southern Oscillation Infectious disease vulnerability Latin America

Contrasting Impacts of Three Types of ENSo Event on Boreal Autumn Rainfall over Southwest China

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2021年第10期9卷 14-27页

作者： Jiajie Hu Wei Wang Yining Tan College of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information Technology Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu China

The autumn precipitation over southwest China is one of the main causes of meteorological disasters. Using observed monthly station rainfall data and HadISST and NCEP/NCAR analysis data, the impacts of three types of el niño-southern oscillation (ENSo) events on the boreal autumn rainfall over southwest China were determined. over southwest China, autumn rainfall constitutes > 20% of the total annual rainfall and a marked decline in autumn rainfall commenced around 1990. During La niormal;">ña events, there is surplus (deficit) over the middle (northwest and southeast) of southwest China. In cnetral Pacific (CP) el niño events, the autumn rainfall anomaly shows a deficiency over China. The large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in the three ENSo categories also exhibit distinct characteristics. During CP el niormal;">ño autumns, the pressure anomaly over the North Pacific ocean displays a “” structure, with a high-pressure anomaly over the Asian continent. An anomalous cyclone appears over the western North Pacific (WNP). In EP el niormal;">ño autumns, the pressure anomaly over the North Pacific ocean has a “” structure, with a low-pressure anomaly over the Asian continent. An anomalous anticyclone appears over the WNP and the 500-hPa anomalies are opposite to those of CP el niormal;">ormal;">ño events. During La niormal;">ña autumns, the characteristics of circulation pres

关键词： El Niño-Southern Oscillation Autumn Rainfall Integrated Water Vapor Transport Southwest China