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Seasonal evolution of the effects of the el nino–southern oscillation on lower stratospheric water vapor:Delayed effects in late winter and early spring

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2019年第6期3卷 489-500页

作者： YuJing Liao QuanLiang Chen Xin Zhou School of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information Technology and Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province

Water vapor in the stratosphere makes a significant contribution to global climate change by altering the radiative energy budget of the Earth’s climate *** many previous studies have shown that the el Ni?o–southern oscillation(ENSO)has significant effects on the water vapor content of the stratosphere in terms of the annual or seasonal mean,a comprehensive analysis of the seasonal evolution of these effects is still *** reanalysis data and satellite observations,we carried out a composite analysis of the seasonal evolution of stratospheric water vapor during el Ni?o/La Ni?a peaks in winter and decays in *** ENSO has a distinct hysteresis effect on water vapor in the tropical lower *** el Ni?o/La Ni?a events moisten/dry out the tropical lower stratosphere in both winter and spring,whereas this wetting/dehydration effect is more significant in *** pattern is due to a warmer temperature in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere during the el Ni?o spring phase,which causes more water vapor to enter the stratosphere,and vice versa for La Ni?*** delayed warming/cooling in the lower stratosphere during the el Ni?o/La Ni?a decay in spring leads to the seasonal evolution of ENSO effects on water vapor in the lower stratosphere.

关键词： el nino-southern oscillation stratospheric water vapor seasonal evolution

Using CMIP5 model outputs to investigate the initial errors that cause the “spring predictability barrier” for el Nio events

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Science China Earth Sciences 2015年第5期58卷 685-696页

作者： ZHANG Jing DUAN WanSuo ZHI XieFei Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

Most ocean-atmosphere coupled models have difficulty in predicting the E1 Nifio-southern oscillation （ENSO） when starting from the boreal spring season. However, the cause of this spring predictability barrier （SPB） phenomenon remains elusive. We investigated the spatial characteristics of optimal initial errors that cause a significant SPB for E1 Nifio events by using the monthly mean data of the pre-industrial （PI） control runs from several models in CMIP5 experiments. The results indicated that the SPB-related optimal initial errors often present an SST pattern with positive errors in the central-eastern equatorial Pa- cific, and a subsurface temperature pattern with positive errors in the upper layers of the eastern equatorial Pacific, and nega- tive errors in the lower layers of the western equatorial Pacific. The SPB-related optimal initial errors exhibit a typical La Ni- fia-like evolving mode, ultimately causing a large but negative prediction error of the Nifio-3.4 SST anomalies for el Nifio events. The negative prediction errors were found to originate from the lower layers of the western equatorial Pacific and then grow to be large in the eastern equatorial Pacific. It is therefore reasonable to suggest that the E1 Nifio predictions may be most sensitive to the initial errors of temperature in the subsurface layers of the western equatorial Pacific and the Nifio-3.4 region, thus possibly representing sensitive areas for adaptive observation. That is, if additional observations were to be preferentially deployed in these two regions, it might be possible to avoid large prediction errors for E1 Nifio and generate a better forecast than one based on additional observations targeted elsewhere. Moreover, we also confirmed that the SPB-related optimal initial errors bear a strong resemblance to the optimal precursory disturbance for E1 Nifio and La Nifia events. This indicated that im- provement of the observation network by additional observations in the ident

关键词： el nino-southern oscillation spring predictability barrier optimal initial errors optimal precursory disturbance

A brief review of ENSO theories and prediction

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Science China Earth Sciences 2020年第4期63卷 476-491页

作者： Xianghui FANG Ruihuang XIE Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Innovation Center of Ocean and Atmosphere System Zhuhai Fudan Innovation Research InstituteZhuhai 518057China CAS Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves Institute of Oceanologyand Center for Ocean Mega-ScienceChinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao)Qingdao 266237China

Although the el Ni?o-southern oscillation(ENSO) originates and develops in the equatorial Pacific, it has substantial climatic impacts around the globe. Thus, the ability to effectively simulate and predict ENSO one or more seasons in advance is of great societal importance, but this remains a challenging task. The main obstacles are the diversity, complexity,irregularity, and asymmetry of ENSO. The purpose of this article is to organically integrate the understanding of ENSO based on current progress on the physical mechanisms, prediction, and connections between the interannual ENSO phenomenon and physical processes on other time and space scales, and to provide guidance for future studies by extracting specific important questions.

关键词： el nino-southern oscillation Mechanism Prediction Complexity

Winter-spring minimum temperature variations inferred from tree-ring δ^(13)C in southeastern China

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Journal of Forestry Research 2024年第5期35卷 182-190页

作者： Wenli Li Feifei Zhou Heng Zhang Keyan Fang Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Eco-Geographical Process(MOE) College of Geographic SciencesFujian Normal UniversityFuzhou 350007People’s Republic of China

Long-term temperature variations inferred from high-resolution proxies provide an important context to evaluate the intensity of current ***,tem-perature reconstructions in humid southeastern China are scarce and particularly lack long-term data,limiting us to obtain a complete picture of regional temperature *** this study,we present a well-verified reconstruction of winter-spring(January–April)minimum temperatures over southeastern China based on stable carbon isotopic(δ^(13)C)records of tree rings from Taxus wallichiana *** from 1860 to *** reconstruction accounted for 56.4%of the total observed *** periods occurred during the 1860s–1910s and 1960s–*** temperatures have had an upward trend since the 1920s,most of the cold extremes were in recent *** el Niño-southern oscillation(ENSO)variance acted as a key modulator of regional winter-spring minimum temperature ***,teleconnections between them were a nonlinear process,i.e.,a reduced or enhanced ENSO variance may result in a weakened or intensified temperature-ENSO relationship.

关键词： Tree rings Carbon isotope Southeastern China Extreme coldness el nino-southern oscillation

ENSO-Like Pacing of the Asian Summer Monsoon during the Early Holocene

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第2期34卷 325-335页

作者： Xiaohua SHAO Tao WANG Yongjin WANG Hai CHENG Kan ZHAO Xinggong KONG School of Geography Nanjing University of Information Science & TechnologyNanjing 210044China Public Meteorological Service Center of Anhui Province Hefei 230031China Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment Ministry of EducationNanjing Normal UniversityNanjing 210023China Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application Nanjing 210023China Institute of Global Environmental Change Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityXi’an 710049China Department of Geology and Geophysics University of MinnesotaMN 55455USA

We present a230Th-dated stalagmite oxygen isotope(δ^18O)record from Loushanguan Cave in the Yangtze River valley,***^δ18O record,if viewed as a proxy of the Asian summer monsoon(ASM)intensity,provides an ASM history for the early Holocene with clear centennial-scale variability.A significant approximately 200-yr cycle between 10.2 and 9.1 ka BP(before present,where"present"is defined as the year AD 1950),as revealed by spectral power analyses,is of global significance and is probably forced by the Suess or de Vries cycle of solar ***,we explore a physical mechanism to explain the relationship between the solar activity and the ASM.A strong coherence between the ASM and el Ni?o–southern oscillation(ENSO)has been observed by performing crosswavelet analyses on this *** study suggests that a strong(weak)ASM state corresponds to a warm(cold)ENSO,which is consistent with modern meteorological observations but contrasts with previous studies on regions far from the Meiyu *** argue that the centennial fluctuations of the ASM are a fundamental characteristic forced by the solar activity,with the ENSO variability as a *** relationship between ENSO and the ASM displayed spatial heterogeneity on the centennial scale during the early Holocene,which is a more direct analogue to the observed modern interannual variability of the ASM.

关键词： isotope records Asian summer monsoon el nino-southern oscillation centennial scale solar activity Yangtze River valley early Holocene

A Robustness Analysis of CMIP5 Models over the East Asia-Western North Pacific Domain

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Engineering 2017年第5期3卷 773-778页

作者： Tianjun Zhou Xiaolong Chen Bo Wu Zhun Guo Yong Sun Liwei Zou Wenmin Man Lixia Zhang Chao He State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP） is an international community-based infrastructure that supports climate model intercomparison, climate variability, climate prediction, and climate projection. Improving the performance of climate models over East Asia and the western North Pacific has been a challenge for the climate-modeling community. In this paper, we provide a synthesis robustness analysis of the climate models participating in CMIP-Phase 5 （CMIP5）. The strengths and weaknesses of the CMIP5 models are assessed from the perspective of climate mean state, interannual variability, past climate change during the mid-Pliocene （MP） and the last millennium, and climate projection. The added values of regional climate models relative to the driving global climate models are also assessed. Although an encouraging increase in credibility and an improvement in the simulation of mean states, interannual variability, and past climate changes are visible in the progression from CMIP3 to CMIPS, some previously noticed biases such as the ridge position of the western North Pacific subtropical high and the associated rainfall bias are still evident in CMIP5 models. Weaknesses are also evident in simulations of the interannual amplitude, such as el nino- southern oscillation （ENSO）-monsoon relationships. Coupled models generally show better results than standalone atmospheric models in simulating both mean states and interannual variability. Multi-model intercomparison indicates significant uncertainties in the future projection of climate change, although precipitation increases consistently across models constrained by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Regional ocean-atmosphere coupled models are recommended for the dynamical downscaling of climate change oroiections over the East Asia-western North Pacific domain.

关键词： East Asian monsoon Western North Pacific climate el nino-southern oscillation Past climate change Climate projection Coupled climate model Regional climate model

Singularly Perturbed Solution of Coupled Model in Atmosphere-ocean for Global Climate

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Chinese Geographical Science 2008年第2期18卷 193-196页

作者： MO Jiaqi LIN Wantao WANG Hui Department of Mathematics Anhui Normal University Wuhu 241000 China Division of Computational Science E-Institutes of Shanghai Universities at SJTU Shanghai 200240 China Huzhou Teachers College Huzhou 313000 China LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Chinese Academy ofMeteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China

A box model of the interhemispheric thermohaline circulation (THC) in atmosphere-ocean for global cli-mate is considered. By using the multi-scales method, the asymptotic solution of a simplified weakly nonlinear model is discussed. Firstly, by introducing first scale, the zeroth order approximate solution of the model is obtained. Sec-ondly, by using the multi-scales, the first order approximate equation of the model is found. Finally, second order ap-proximate equation is formed to eliminate the secular terms, and a uniformly valid asymptotic expansion of solution is decided. The multi-scales solving method is an analytic method which can be used to analyze operation sequentially. And then we can also study the diversified qualitative and quantitative behaviors for corresponding physical quantities. This paper aims at providing a valid method for solving a box model of the nonlinear equation.

关键词： atmosphere-ocean el nino-southern oscillation singular perturbation approximate solution

INTERANNUAL ANOMALY IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY AROUND KOREA BY WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2015年第2期4卷 49-63页

作者： JAE-WON CHOI SEUNG-WOOK LEE JEOUNG-YUN KIM National Institute of Meteorological Sciences

In this study, the correlation between the frequency of summer tropical cyclones(TC) affecting areas around Korea over the last 37 years and the western North Pacifi c monsoon index(WNPMI) was analyzed. A clear positive correlation existed between the two variables, and this high positive correlation remained unchanged even when excluding el Ni?o-southern oscillation(ENSO) years. To investigate the causes of the positive correlation between these two variables, ENSO years were excluded, after which the 8 years with the highest WNPMI(strong WNPM phase) and the 8 years with the lowest WNPMI(weak WNPM phase) were selected, and the average difference between the two phases was *** the strong WNPM phase, TCs usually occurred in the eastern waters of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacifi c, and tended to pass the East China Sea on their way north toward Korea and Japan. In the weak WNPM phase, TCs usually occurred in the western waters of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacifi c, and tended to pass the South China Sea on their way west toward the southeastern Chinese coast and the Indochina peninsula. Therefore, TC intensity was higher in the strong WNPM phase, during which TCs are able to gain suffi cient energy from the sea while moving a long distance to areas nearby Korea. TCs also tended to occur more often in the strong WNPM *** the difference between the two phases regarding 850 h Pa and 500 h Pa streamline, anomalous cyclones were reinforced in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacifi c, while anomalous anticyclones were reinforced in mid-latitude East Asian areas. Due to these two anomalous pressure systems, anomalous southeasterlies developed in areas near Korea, with these anomalous southeasterlies playing the role of anomalous steering fl ows making the TCs head toward areas near Korea. Also, due to the anomalous cyclones developed in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacifi c, more TCs could occur in the s

关键词： tropical cyclone western North Pacific monsoon el nino-southern oscillation Korea

Trends in Latent and Sensible Heat Fluxes over the southern Ocean

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2012年第2期2卷 159-173页

作者： Lejiang Yu Zhanhai Zhang Mingyu Zhou Shiyuan Zhong Donald H.Lenschow Binrui Li Xianqiao Wang Shiming Li Huiding Wu Bo Sun Applied Hydrometeorological Research Institute Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina Polar Research Institute of China ShanghaiChina National Marine Environment Forecast Center BeijingChina Michigan State University East LansingUSA National Center for Atmospheric Research BoulderUSA

In this study, the trends in latent and sensible heat fluxes (LHF and SHF) over the southern Ocean (oceans south of 35?S) and the contributions of the Antarctic oscillation (AAO), the Pacific-South America teleconnection patterns (PSA1 and PSA2) and The el Ni?o-southern oscillation (ENSO) to these heat fluxes were investigated using the Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Fluxes (OAFlux) dataset from 1979 to 2008. Significant positive annual trends in LHF occur over the Agulhas Current, the Brazil Current, the oceans in the vicinity of New Zealand and southern Australia, and the eastern Pacific Ocean near between 35?S and 40?S. Significant negative seasonal trends occur in LHF which differ among the four seasons. The spatial pattern and seasonal variation of the trends in SHF over the southern Ocean are similar to those of LHF. The spatial patterns of the trends in LHF and SHF caused by the AAO, PSA1, PSA2 and southern oscillation Index (SOI) indices show a wave-like feature, varying with different seasons, that can be explained by the anomalous meridional wind associated with the four indices. The above four indices account for a small portion of the trend in LHF and SHF. The residual trends in LHF over the southern Ocean may be explained by a climate shift in the late 1990s for the four seasons. But the residual trends in SHF over the southern Ocean are not associated with the climate shift.

关键词： southern Ocean Antarctic oscillation Pacific-South America Teleconnection el nino-southern oscillation Heat Flux