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Comparison of the effects of soil moisture and el nino on summer precipitation in eastern China

Science China Earth Sciences 2020年第2期63卷 267-278页

作者： Juan ZHOU Zhiyan ZUO Xinyao RONG State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

The effects of spring soil moisture over the vast region from the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze River valley to North China(YRNC) and el Ni?o on the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) and precipitation in eastern China, as well as the relevant mechanisms, are investigated using the modified atmospheric model ECHAM5 coupled with the Common Land Model. These models are the atmospheric and land components of the climate system model developed at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS-CSM). The simulations show that both soil moisture anomalies in eastern China and el Ni?o sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies have significant influences on the EASM, with the effect of soil moisture being slightly greater than that of the el Ni?o. However, the impacts of soil moisture on EASM and rainfall in eastern China are markedly different from those of the el Ni?o. Wetter(drier) soil over the YRNC corresponds to less(more) precipitation over northern and southeastern China, and more(less) precipitation over the Yangtze River basin and northeastern China, as well as a strengthened(weakened) and westward-shifted(eastward-shifted) West Pacific Subtropical High and a deepened(shallower) East Asian trough, representing a weakened(strengthened) EASM pattern. During el Ni?o developing summers, an anomalous anticyclone extends from northeastern to northern China, and an anomalous cyclone occupies the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and southern China. Concurrently, the West Pacific Subtropical High is anomalously weaker than normal. As a result,rainfall anomalously increases over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and southern China, and decreases over northern and northeastern China. In el Ni?o decaying summers, there is an anomalous cyclone over northeastern China and an anomalous anticyclone over southern China. The convergence of southerly airflow and northerly winds leads to enhanced rainfall around northern China and the middle reaches of the Y

关键词： Soil moisture el nino East Asian summer monsoon Precipitation Numerical simulation

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Response of Growing Season Gross Primary Production to el nino in Different Phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation over Eastern China Based on Bayesian Model Averaging

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第9期38卷 1580-1595页

作者： Yueyue LI Li DAN Jing PENG Junbang WANG Fuqiang YANG Dongdong GAO Xiujing YANG Qiang YU Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of ScienceBeijing 100049China Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China National Ecosystem Science Data Center Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and ModelingInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau Northwest A&F UniversityShaanxi 712100China School of Life Sciences University of Technology SydneySydney 2007NSWAustralia

Gross primary production(GPP) plays a crucial part in the carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems.A set of validated monthly GPP data from 1957 to 2010 in 0.5°× 0.5° grids of China was weighted from the Multi-scale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project using Bayesian model averaging(BMA).The spatial anomalies of detrended BMA GPP during the growing seasons of typical el nino years indicated that GPP response to el nino varies with Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) phases: when the PDO was in the cool phase,it was likely that GPP was greater in northern China(32°–38°N,111°–122°E) and less in the Yangtze River valley(28°–32°N,111°–122°E);in contrast,when PDO was in the warm phase,the GPP anomalies were usually reversed in these two *** consistent spatiotemporal pattern and high partial correlation revealed that rainfall dominated this *** previously published findings on how el nino during different phases of PDO affecting rainfall in eastern China make the statistical relationship between GPP and el nino in this study theoretically *** paper not only introduces an effective way to use BMA in grids that have mixed plant function types,but also makes it possible to evaluate the carbon cycle in eastern China based on the prediction of el nino and PDO.

关键词： East China Bayesian model averaging Gross primary production el nino Pacific Decadal Oscillation Monsoon rainfall

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Reviewing the Oceanic nino Index(ONI) to Enhance Societal Readiness for el nino’s Impacts

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2020年第3期11卷 394-403页

作者： Michael H.Glantz Ivan J.Ramirez Consortium for Capacity Building/INSTAAR.University of Colorado BoulderCO 80309USA Department of Health and Behavioral Sciences University of Colorado DenverDenverCO 80204USA

NOAA’s Oceanic nino Index(ONI)is used to record for historical purposes the occurrence and duration of el nino episodes,based on the monitoring of sea surface temperatures(SSTs)in the central Pacific *** ONI is used to identify the onset of an above average SST threshold that persists for several months,encompassing both the beginning and end of an el nino *** first appearance of an anomalous seasonal value of 0.5℃suggests with a high probability that an el nino could emerge,but for heightened warnings,one must wait for several *** this article,we proposed that the ONI value of 0.7℃identifies a tipping point at which the el nino event becomes locked in,which can provide additional lead time for mitigative actions to be taken by societal decision *** preliminary findings suggest that a first appearance of 0.7℃value could serve as a credible marker of el nino’s locked-in phase,which can provide additional credibility to the current 0.5℃el nino onset indicator for at-risk societies to get ready for el nino’s foreseeable societal and ecological impacts.

关键词： Advisory Disasters Early warning el nino el nino Southern Oscillation ENSO Hydrometeorological hazards Oceanic nino Index ONI

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Hydroclimatic anomalies in China during the post-Laki years and the role ofconcurring el nino

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2021年第2期12卷 187-198页

作者： GAO Chao-Chao YANG Lin-Shan LIU Fei Department of Environmental Science Zhejiang UniversityHangzhou310058China Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere‒Ocean System Ministry of Education School of Atmospheric SciencesSun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai519082China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory Zhuhai519082China

Arctic is warming at an alarming speed causing accelerated melting of Greenland and rising of sea level,and geoengineering by injectingaerosol into stratosphere(SAI)has been proposed as a backup approach to mitigate ***,studies suggest that SAI implementationmay have adverse impacts on global especially monsoon precipitation,and Northern Hemisphere high-latitude injections may have dis-proportionally high effects than tropical *** 1783e1784 CE Laki eruption in Iceland provides an analogy to study the climatic andthe subsequent socioecological responses to Arctic SAI,and China possesses a rich legacy of documents recording climatic disasters anddescribing their direct impacts on agriculture and *** the most recent summer precipitation reconstructions and the documentary data,this study presents a systemic analysis of the hydroclimatic anomalies as well as the societal and ecological consequences in China following the1783e1784 CE Laki *** results from multi-proxies show severe drought conditions in eastern China during the post-Laki years,accompanied by large scale locust breakout,famine and human *** drought and associated disasters first emerged in the North ChinaPlain in 1784 CE,intensified and expanded to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in 1785 *** drought and famine stresses inChina are part of the very unsettled climate conditions experienced across the Northern Hemispheric world during the *** isolating theENSO-induced precipitation from the reconstructed summer precipitation changes,our results indicate that the Laki eruption did cause severedrought in monsoon China during the next three *** drought responses in the 1783e1784 were largely counter-balanced by the wettinginduced by the concurring strong el Ni~no *** results help to enhance our understanding of the hydroclimate consequence of NH highlatitude volcanic eruption in China,and the potential role climate interna

关键词： 1783‒1784 CE Laki eruption Hydroclimatic anomalies China el nino Proxy reconstruction

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Responses of Cloud-Radiative Forcing to Strong el nino Events over the Western Pacific Warm Pool as Simulated by CAMS-CSM

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第3期34卷 499-514页

作者： Baichao ZHANG Zhun GUO Xiaolong CHEN Tianjun ZHOU Xinyao RONG Jian LI Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology Nanjing 210044 Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100101 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

Cloud-radiative forcing(CRF)at the top of the atmosphere(TOA)over the western Pacific warm pool(WP)shows unique characteristics in response to el nino *** this region,the responses of CRF to el nino events have been a useful metric for evaluating climate *** data are used to analyze the CRF anomalies to el nino events simulated by the new and old versions of the Climate System Model of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS-CSM),which has participated in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP).Here,simulations for super el nino years,el nino years,and normal years are compared with *** results show that the mean values of both longwave CRF(LWCRF)and shortwave CRF(SWCRF)in CAMS-CSM are weaker than the observations for each category of el nino *** with the old version of CAMS-CSM,the decrease in LWCRF during el nino events is well simulated by the new version of ***,both new and old models cannot reproduce the anomalous SWCRF in el nino *** biases in the CRF response to el nino events are attributed to the biases in the cloud vertical structure because of a weaker crash of the Walker circulation in *** to the modification of the conversion rate from cloud droplets to raindrops in the cumulus convection scheme,the new version of CAMS-CSM has better CRF skills in normal years,but biases in el nino events still exist in the new *** the response of the Walker circulation to el nino events is key to higher skills in simulating the cloud radiative responses.

关键词： cloud-radiative forcing(CRF) el nino model evaluation warm pool(WP) western Pacific

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Response of nearshore circulation outside Yangtze Estuary to el nino events

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Water Science and Engineering 2016年第2期9卷 145-154页

作者： Wen-yan Zhang Zheng Gong Chang-kuan Zhang Wei Tan State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Hohai University Nanjing 210098 China CCCC Third Harbor Consultants Co. Ltd. Shanghai 210030 China Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Coast Ocean Resources Development and Environment Security Hohai University Nanjing 210098 China

With consideration of the comprehensive effects of runoff from the Yangtze River, East China Sea background circulation, and tidal currents,a regional circulation model, including the Yangtze Estuary, Hangzhou Bay, and adjacent sea areas was established. The 2002/2003 el Ni^no event was chosen for study of the anomalies of circulation outside the Yangtze Estuary. The coastal and ocean current systems of the East China Sea and the current structure outside the Yangtze Estuary were accurately described. The results of vertical circulation analysis basically coincide with those of horizontal circulation analysis, showing that the circulation outside the Yangtze Estuary is mainly affected by the Taiwan warm current, runoff from the Yangtze Estuary, and the tide-induced residual current. The el Ni^no event weakens Yangtze Estuary circulation to a certain degree, and the impacts are more significant in summer than in winter. During the 2002/2003 el Ni^no event, the flux of the Taiwan warm current decreases, and the northward component of the Taiwan warm current decreases by half in February 2003 compared to the previous year. However, its path is relatively stable.

关键词： el nino Princeton ocean model Yangtze Estuary Circulation Taiwan warm current

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Tanzanian rainfall responses to el nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events during 1951-2015

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2021年第6期14卷 41-47页

作者： Dickson Mbigi Ziniu Xiao State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina University of Chinese Academy of Sciences BeijingChina Department of Physics University of Dar es SalaamDar es SalaamTanzania

The relative impacts of Indian and Pacific Ocean processes on Tanzanian rainfall was evaluated using composite and correlation *** was found that the seasonal responses of rainfall to positive Indian Ocean Dipole(pIOD)and el nino events are substantial from September-October-November(SON)to December-January-February(DJF),whereas the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)exerts more control than el nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)in both *** associated relationship with the sea surface temperature(SST)and large-scale atmo-spheric circulations revealed distinct *** the pure pIOD years,there is above-normal rainfall over the entire country.A strong rainfall condition is evident over the Lake Victoria basin and coastal and northeastern highland parts of the country during SON,while areas of the central and southern highlands exhibit substantial rains during *** the pure el-nino events,Tanzania has suffered from insignificant,weak,and non-coherent rainfall conditions during ***,a contrasting insignificant rainfall signature is found between the north-ern and southern parts of the country during the subsequent DJF *** the co-occurrence of pIOD and el nino,significant,excessive rainfall conditions are restricted to over the northern coast and northeastern areas of the country during SON,consistent with the rainfall pattern for pIOD.A weak,positive rainfall condition is observed over the entire country in the following season of ***,in terms of Tanzanian rainfall,the IOD/ENSO variability and the associated impacts can be explained by the anomalous SST and circulation anomalies.

关键词： Rainfall Indian Ocean Dipole el nino Tanzania

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THE PREVIOUS STRATOSPHERE CHARACTERISTICS OF el nino

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Chinese Science Bulletin 1992年第10期37卷 842-846页

作者：顾润源刘晓东王玉玺 Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000PRC Lanzhou Institute of Plateau Atmospheric Physics Lanzhou 730000PRC

el Nio usually happens with the anomaly of general circulation of atmosphere and climate in the world. el Nio has close statistical relationships with the rainfall decrease in Africa, the monsoon weakening in India, and the Australian aridity. In recent years, it is also pointed out that there is a certain correlation between el Nio and Chinese climate and weather. In el Nio year, the summer temperature is lower than normal in the northeast of China. The happening and development of el Nio can also cause the anomalies of rainfalls in Changjiang River valley and the typhoon in China. Therefore, the fore-

关键词： el nino stratosphere departure

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Sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical North Atlantic during el nino decaying years

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2021年第6期14卷 14-19页

作者： Xinyu Duan Feng Xue Fei Zheng International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Climate Center of Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province LanzhouChina

Based on reanalysis data from 1979 to 2016,this study focuses on the sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly of the tropical North Atlantic(TNA)in el nino decaying *** TNA SST exhibits a clear warm trend during this *** composite result for 10 el nino events shows that the TNA SST anomaly reaches its maximum in spring after the peak of an el nino event and persists until *** general,the anomaly is associated with three factors-namely,el nino,the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),and a long-term trend,leading to an increase in local SST up to 0.4℃,0.3℃,and 0.35℃,respectively.A comparison between 1983 and 2005 indicates that the TNA SST in spring is affected by el Niño,as well as the local SST in the preceding winter,which may involve a long-term trend *** addition,the lead-lag correlation shows that the NAO leads the TNA SST by 2-3 *** comparing two years with an opposite phase of the NAO in winter(i.e.,1992 and 2010),the authors further demonstrate that the NAO is another important factor in regulating the TNA SST anomaly.A negative phase of the NAO in winter will reinforce the el nino forcing substantially,and vise *** other words,the TNA SST anomaly in the decaying years is more evident if the NAO is negative with el ***,the combined effects of el nino and the NAO must be considered in order to fully understand the TNA SST variability along with a long-term trend.

关键词： Tropical North Atlantic Sea surface temperature anomaly North Atlantic Oscillation el nino

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INFLUENCE OF el nino ON WEATHER AND CLIMATE IN CHINA

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 1992年第1期6卷 117-131页

作者：刘永强丁一汇 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing

el nino as well as the Southern Oscillation is one of the strongest signals known so far over climatic noise in interannual variations of the atmosphere and oceans.A great number of studies have shown definitely relationships be- tween the events and climatic anomalies in *** this review,observational results obtained in the recent several years are first *** the possible physical mechanisms on the influence of el nino are presented and,finally, the associated problems are discussed.

关键词： el nino drought and floor typhoon cool summer China

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