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Risk estimation and prediction of the transmission of coronavirus disease-2019(COVID-19)in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2020年第4期9卷 146-147页

作者： Hui Wan Jing-An Cui Guo-Jing Yang Jiangsu Key Lab for NSLSCS School of Mathematical SciencesNanjing Normal UniversityNanjingChina Department of Mathematics School of ScienceBeijing University of Civil Engineering and ArchitectureBeijingChina Hainan Medical University Haikou571199China Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute Socinstrasse 57BaselCH-4002Switzerland University of Basel BaselSwitzerland

Background In December 2019,an outbreak of coronavirus disease(later named as COVID-19)was identified in Wuhan,China and,later on,detected in other parts of *** aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of the evolution of interventions and self-protection measures,estimate the risk of partial lifting control measures and predict the epidemic trend of the virus in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province based on the published data and a novel mathematical *** A novel COVID-19 transmission dynamic model incorporating the intervention measures implemented in China is ***-19 daily data of the mainland of China excluding Hubei province,including the cumulative confirmed cases,the cumulative deaths,newly confirmed cases and the cumulative recovered cases between 20 January and 3 March 2020,were archived from the National Health Commission of China(NHCC).We parameterize the model by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method and estimate the control reproduction number(Rc),as well as the effective daily reproduction ratio-Re(t),of the disease transmission in the mainland of China excluding Hubei *** The estimation outcomes indicate that Rc is 3.36(95%CI:3.20–3.64)and Re(t)has dropped below 1 since 31 January 2020,which implies that the containment strategies implemented by the Chinese government in the mainland of China are indeed effective and magnificently suppressed COVID-19 ***,our results show that relieving personal protection too early may lead to a prolonged disease transmission period and more people would be infected,and may even cause a second wave of epidemic or *** calculating the effective reproduction ratio,we prove that the contact rate should be kept at least less than 30%of the normal level by April,*** To ensure the pandemic ending rapidly,it is necessary to maintain the current integrated restrict interventions and self-protection measures,including travel restriction

关键词： COVID-19 Risk estimation and prediction Intervention measure Contact tracing Control reproduction number effective daily reproduction ratio Mathematical model

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An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus(2019-nCov)

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 248-255页

作者： Biao Tang Nicola Luigi Bragazzi Qian Li Sanyi Tang Yanni Xiao Jianhong Wu The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityXi’an710049People’s Republic of China Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Department of Mathematics and StatisticsYork UniversityTorontoOntarioM3J 1P3Canada School of Mathematics and Statistics Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityXi’an710049People’s Republic of China School of Mathematics and Information Science Shaanxi Normal UniversityXi’an710119People’s Republic of China Fields-CQAM Laboratory of Mathematics for Public Health York UniversityTorontoOntarioM3J 1P3Canada

The basic reproduction number of an infectious agent is the average number of infections one case can generate over the course of the infectious period,in a naïve,uninfected *** is well-known that the estimation of this number may vary due to several methodological issues,including different assumptions and choice of parameters,utilized models,used datasets and estimation *** the spreading of the novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV)infection,the reproduction number has been found to vary,reflecting the dynamics of transmission of the coronavirus outbreak as well as the case reporting *** to significant variations in the control strategies,which have been changing over time,and thanks to the introduction of detection technologies that have been rapidly improved,enabling to shorten the time from infection/symptoms onset to diagnosis,leading to faster confirmation of the new coronavirus cases,our previous estimations on the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV need to be *** using time-dependent contact and diagnose rates,we refit our previously proposed dynamics transmission model to the data available until January 29th,2020 and re-estimated the effective daily reproduction ratio that better quantifies the evolution of the *** estimated when the effective daily reproduction ratio has fallen below 1 and when the epidemics will *** updated findings suggest that the best measure is persistent and strict *** epidemics will continue to grow,and can peak soon with the peak time depending highly on the public health interventions practically implemented.

关键词： Novel coronavirus Emerging and reemerging pathogens Mathematical modeling Basic reproduction number effective daily reproduction ratio

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