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Depreciation factor equation to evaluate the economic losses from ground failure due to subsidence related to groundwater withdrawal

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Natural Science 2014年第3期6卷 108-113页

作者： Víctor Manuel Hernández-Madrigal Jesús Arturo Muniz-Jáuregui Víctor Hugo Garduno-Monroy Netzahualcoyotl Flores-Lázaro Sócrates Figueroa-Miranda Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias de La Tierra Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de HidalgoMoreliaMéxico Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México MoreliaMéxico

Subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal is a complex hydrogeological process affecting numerous cities settled on top of fluviolacustrine deposits. The discrete spatial variation in the thickness of these deposits, in combination with subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal, generates differential settlements and aseismic ground failure (AGF) characterized by a welldefined scarp. In cities, such AGF causes severe damages to urban infrastructure and considerable economic impact. With the goal of arriving to a general criterion for evaluating the economic losses derived from AGF, in the present work we propose the following equation: ELi = PVi*DFi. Where PVi is the value of a property “i”, and DFi is a depreciation factor caused by structural damages of a property “i” due to AGF. The DFi is calculated empirically through: . This last equation is based on the spatial relations of coexistence and proximity of property polygons and the AGF axis. The coexistence is valued as the quotient of the affectation area divided by the total area of the involved property;and the proximity to the AGF axis is expressed as the inverse of the perpendicular distance from the centroid of the property polygon to the AGF axis. The sum of these terms is divided by two to determine the percentage that affects the property value (PVi). These equations are relevant because it is the first indicator designed for the discrete assessment of the economic impacts due to AGF, and can be applied to real estate infrastructure from either urban or rural areas.

关键词： Aseismic Ground Failure Groundwater Withdrawal Related Subsidence Equation Depreciation economic losses

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conomic losses from reduced freshwater under future climate scenarios: An example from the Urumqi River,Tianshan Mountains

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Journal of Arid Land 2022年第2期14卷 139-153页

作者： ZHANG Xueting CHEN Rensheng LIU Guohua Qilian Alpine Ecology and Hydrology Research Station Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100012China College of Urban and Environment Sciences Northwest UniversityXi'an 710000China

As important freshwater resources in alpine basins,glaciers and snow cover tend to decline due to climate warming,thus affecting the amount of water available downstream and even regional economic development.However,impact assessments of the economic losses caused by reductions in freshwater supply are quite limited.This study aims to project changes in glacier meltwater and snowmelt of the Urumqi River in the Tianshan Mountains under future climate change scenarios(RCP2.6(RCP,Representative Concentration Pathway),RCP4.5,and RCP8.5)by applying a hydrological model and estimate the economic losses from future meltwater reduction for industrial,agricultural,service,and domestic water uses combined with the present value method for the 2030 s,2050 s,2070 s,and 2090 s.The results indicate that total annual glacier meltwater and snowmelt will decrease by 65.6%and 74.5%under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the 2090 s relative to the baseline period(1980-2010),respectively.Compared to the RCP2.6 scenario,the projected economic loss values of total water use from reduced glacier meltwater and snowmelt under the RCP8.5 scenario will increase by 435.10×10^(6) and 537.20×10^(6) CNY in the 2050 s and 2090 s,respectively,and the cumulative economic loss value for 2099 is approximately 2124.00×10^(6) CNY.We also find that the industrial and agricultural sectors would likely face the largest and smallest economic losses,respectively.The economic loss value of snowmelt in different sectorial sectors is greater than that of glacier meltwater.These findings highlight the need for climate mitigation actions,industrial transformation,and rational water allocation to be considered in decision-making in the Tianshan Mountains in the future.

关键词： glacier meltwater snowmelt freshwater supply water use economic losses future climate scenario climate change Tianshan Mountains

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Rapid estimation of disaster losses for the M6.8 Luding earthquake on September 5,2022

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Science China Earth Sciences 2023年第6期66卷 1334-1344页

作者： Wenqiang WANG Yilong LI Zhenguo ZHANG Danhua XIN Zhongqiu HE Wei ZHANG Xiaofei CHEN Department of Astronautical Science and Mechanics Harbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin 150001China Department of Earth and Space Sciences Southern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhen 518055China Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Geophysical High-resolution Imaging Technology Southern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhen 518055China

An M6.8 earthquake occurred in Luding,Sichuan Province,China,on September 5,2022.Since towns and villages in the earthquake-stricken area are densely populated,the earthquake caused severe fatalities and economic losses.Rapid estimation of earthquake intensity and disaster losses is significantly important for post-earthquake emergency rescue,scientific anti-seismic deployment,and the reduction of casualties and economic losses.Therefore,we make a preliminary rapid estimation of the earthquake intensity and disaster losses in the aftermath of the Luding earthquake.The seismic intensity represents the distribution of earthquake disasters and the degree of ground damage and can be directly converted from the peak ground velocity(PGV)map.To obtain a reliable PGV distribution map of this earthquake,we combined the finite-fault model constrained by seismic observations,with the complex three-dimensional(3D)geological environment and topographical features to perform strong ground motion simulation.Then,we compared the consistency between the simulated ground motion waveforms and observations,indicating the plausibility and reliability of simulations.In addition,we transformed the PGV simulation results into intensity and obtained a physics-based map of the intensity distribution of the Luding earthquake.The maximum simulated intensity of this earthquake is IX,which is consistent with the maximum intensity determined from the postearthquake field survey.Based on the simulated seismic intensity map of the Luding earthquake and the earthquake disaster loss estimation model,we rapidly estimated the death and economic losses caused by this earthquake.The estimated results show that the death toll caused by this earthquake is probably 50-300,with a mathematic expectation of 89.Thus the government should launch a Level II earthquake emergency response plan.The economic losses are likely to be 10-100 billion RMB,with a mathematical expectation of 23.205 billion RMB.Such seismic intensity simulations and rapid estimation of di

关键词： Luding earthquake Ground motion simulation Seismic intensity Estimation of disaster losses Fatality economic losses

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Global Effect of Climate Change on Seasonal Cycles,Vector Population and Rising Challenges of Communicable Diseases:A Review

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Journal of Atmospheric Science Research 2023年第1期6卷 21-59页

作者： Nidhi Yadav Ravi Kant Upadhyay Department of Zoology D.D.U.Gorakhpur UniversityGorakhpur273009India

This article explains ongoing changes in global climate and their effect on the resurgence of vector and pathogen populations in various parts of the world.Today,major prevailing changes are the elevation of global temperature and accidental torrent rains,floods,droughts,and loss of productivity and food commodities.Due to the increase in water surface area and the longer presence of flood water,the breeding of insect vectors becomes very high;it is responsible for the emergence and re-emergence of so many communicable diseases.Due to the development of resistance to chemicals in insect pests,and pathogens and lack of control measures,communicable zoonotic diseases are remerging with high infectivity and mortality.This condition is becoming more alarming as the climate is favoring pathogen-host interactions and vector populations.Rapid changes seen in meteorology are promoting an unmanageable array of vector-borne infectious diseases,such as malaria,Japanese encephalitis,filarial,dengue,and leishmaniasis.Similarly,due to unhygienic conditions,poor sanitation,and infected ground and surface water outbreak of enteric infections such as cholera,vibriosis,and rotavirus is seen on the rise.In addition,parasitic infection ascariasis,fasciolosis,schistosomiasis,and dysentery cases are increasing.Today climate change is a major issue and challenge that needs timely quick solutions.Climate change is imposing non-adaptive forced human migration territorial conflicts,decreasing ecosystem productivity,disease outbreaks,and impelling unequal resource utilization.Rapid climate changes,parasites,pathogens,and vector populations are on the rise,which is making great threats to global health and the environment.This article highlighted the necessity to develop new strategies and control measures to cut down rising vector and pathogen populations in endemic areas.For finding quick solutions educational awareness,technology up-gradation,new vaccines,and safety measures have to be adopted to break the cycle of dreadful communicable

关键词： Global climate change Biodiversity loss Loss of life Habitat economic losses Biomarkers Challenges and solutions

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Financial losses Associated with Bovine Brucellosis (Brucella abortus) in Carchi-Ecuador

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Open Journal of Animal Sciences 2023年第2期13卷 205-216页

作者： Marcelo Ibarra Martin Campos Christian Ibarra Urgilés Gladys Danny Huera Milena Gutiérrez Andrea Chamorro Luis Núñez Facultad de Industrias Agropecuarias y Ciencias Ambientales. Carrera Agropecuaria. Universidad Politécnica Estatal del Carchi (UPEC). Antisana S/N y Av Universitaria Tulcán Ecuador. Doctorando de la Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias Universidad Nacional de Rosario Rosario Argentina Universidad Politécnica Estatal del Carchi (UPEC). Antisana S/N y Av Universitaria Tulcán Ecuador Facultad de Industrias Agropecuarias y Ciencias Ambientales Carrera Agropecuaria Tulcán Ecuador Universidad Politécnica Estatal del Carchi Maestrante Centro de Postgrado Tulcán Ecuador Facultad de Comercio Internacional Administración y Economía Empresarial Carrera de Comercio Exterior Universidad Politécnica Estatal del Carchi Tulcán Ecuador Facultad de Industrias Agropecuarias y Ciencias Ambientales Carrera de Enfermería Universidad Politécnica Estatal del Carchi Carchi Ecuador Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud Carrera de Medicina Veterinaria One Health Research Group Universidad de Las Américas (UDLA) Quito Ecuador

Brucellosis is an infectious disease of worldwide distribution, which has a great economic impact due to the productive and reproductive losses that it causes, in addition to the serious public health problem. The aim of this study is to estimate the economic losses, through financial analysis, caused by bovine brucellosis in the province of Carchi, over a one-year period. A random sampling was used to determine the prevalence in the study area, where 2976 animals were considered, and the Rose Bengal (RB) test was used as a screening test and the Fluorescence Polarized Assay (FPA) as a confirmatory test, obtaining a prevalence of 8.2% (244/2976). In addition, parameters associated to the losses caused by brucellosis in cattle were determined by literature review. To estimate costs, field information was collected through a survey of a total of 100 randomly selected farmers. The loss estimated due to calves lost as a result of abortions and neonatal death was USD. 79170.00. The loss due to death of 4 cows as a result of metritis was estimated at USD. 5000.00. The cost of examination and treatment of aborted cows was USD. 20100.00. The losses due to reduction in milk production from aborted and non-aborted seropositive cows were estimated at USD. 158114.21. The financial losses due to brucellosis in province of Carchi were estimated at USD. 262384.21.

关键词： Bovine Brucellosis economic losses Carchi-Ecuador

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Markers for Global Climate Change and Its Impact on Social, Biological and Ecological Systems: A Review

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American Journal of Climate Change 2020年第3期9卷 159-203页

作者： Ravi Kant Upadhyay Department of Zoology D. D. U. Gorakhpur University Gorakhpur India

Present article sketches out major climate induced changes in marine, aquatic and terrestrial life. Few important biomarkers such as ecological, meteorological, socioeconomic, thermal, biophysical and biological, behavioral markers of climate change and global environmental stress have been highlighted to predict the future challenges and finding appropriate solutions. Though, so many climate change induced effects are visible but few unpredictable effects may be seen in future. Therefore, all such effects have been acknowledged, and tried to find appropriate solutions. Most visible effect is collection of high amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which is responsible for green house effect and causing natural calamities round the globe. It is not only jeopardized the survival of terrestrial, fresh water animals mainly planktons, bottom dwellers;coral reefs, algae, fish fauna in marine environment belong to different taxon but also responsible for disruption of ocean’s food web due to non-assimilation of extra carbon dioxide by the ocean water. There is a sharp decline in fresh water and sea shore micro-flora and micro-fauna. Other major visible effects are loss of biodiversity, depletion of forests, land degradation, severe floods and draughts. On other hand sudden changes in weather conditions causing irreparable devastations due to hurricanes and typhoons, storms, lightening, earthquakes and tsunamis are normally on rise. Both economic and ecological breakdowns are occurring more frequently which are more impactful and persistent. Climate change is major human health stressor;it is making fragmentation of socio-cultural bonds and reducing fertility of soil finally crop production. Climate change is imposing non-adaptive forced human migration, territorial conflicts, decreasing ecosystem productivity, disease out breaks, and impelling unequal resource utilization.

关键词： Global Climate Change Biodiversity Loss Loss of Life Habitat economic losses Biomarkers Challenges and Solutions

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