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A Damage Scenario for the 2012 Northern Italy Earthquakes and Estimation of the economic losses to Residential Buildings

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2017年第3期8卷 326-341页

作者： Fabrizio Meroni Thea Squarcina Vera Pessina Mario Locati Marco Modica Roberto Zoboli Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia(INGV) Sezione di MilanoVia Bassini 15MilanItaly Istituto di Ricerca sulla Crescita economica Sostenibile(IRCrES) Via Corti1220131 MilanItaly

In May 2012 a seismic sequence occurred in Northern Italy that was characterized by two main shocks with a magnitude range between 5.5 and 6. These shocks represent a good case study by which to quantify the monetary losses caused by a moderate earthquake in a densely populated and economically well-developed *** loss estimation accounts for damage to residential buildings, and considers the full effect of all the seismic aftershock events that lasted for nearly a month. The building damage estimation is based on the European Macroseismic Scale(EMS-98) definitions, which depict the effects of an earthquake on built-up areas in terms of observed intensities. Input data sources are the residential building census provided by Istituto Nazionale di Statistica—the Italian National Institute of Statistics(ISTAT)—and the official market value of real estate assets, obtained from the Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare—the Real Estate Market Observatory(OMI). These data make it possible to quantify the economic losses due to earthquakes, an economic indicator updated yearly. The proposed multidisciplinary method takes advantage of seismic,engineering, and economic data sets, and is able to provide a reasonable after the event losses scenario. Data are not gathered for each single building and the intensity values are not a simple hazard indicator, but, notwithstanding its coarseness, this method ensures both robust and reproducible results. As the local property value is availablethroughout the Italian territory, the present loss assessment can be effortlessly repeated for any area, and may be quickly reproduced in case of future events, or used for predictive economic estimations.

关键词： Earthquake damage economic losses EMS-98 intensity Northern Italy 20 May 2012 earthquake

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Depreciation factor equation to evaluate the economic losses from ground failure due to subsidence related to groundwater withdrawal

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Natural Science 2014年第3期6卷 108-113页

作者： Víctor Manuel Hernández-Madrigal Jesús Arturo Muniz-Jáuregui Víctor Hugo Garduno-Monroy Netzahualcoyotl Flores-Lázaro Sócrates Figueroa-Miranda Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias de La Tierra Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de HidalgoMoreliaMéxico Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México MoreliaMéxico

Subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal is a complex hydrogeological process affecting numerous cities settled on top of fluviolacustrine deposits. The discrete spatial variation in the thickness of these deposits, in combination with subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal, generates differential settlements and aseismic ground failure (AGF) characterized by a welldefined scarp. In cities, such AGF causes severe damages to urban infrastructure and considerable economic impact. With the goal of arriving to a general criterion for evaluating the economic losses derived from AGF, in the present work we propose the following equation: ELi = PVi*DFi. Where PVi is the value of a property “i”, and DFi is a depreciation factor caused by structural damages of a property “i” due to AGF. The DFi is calculated empirically through: . This last equation is based on the spatial relations of coexistence and proximity of property polygons and the AGF axis. The coexistence is valued as the quotient of the affectation area divided by the total area of the involved property;and the proximity to the AGF axis is expressed as the inverse of the perpendicular distance from the centroid of the property polygon to the AGF axis. The sum of these terms is divided by two to determine the percentage that affects the property value (PVi). These equations are relevant because it is the first indicator designed for the discrete assessment of the economic impacts due to AGF, and can be applied to real estate infrastructure from either urban or rural areas.

关键词： Aseismic Ground Failure Groundwater Withdrawal Related Subsidence Equation Depreciation economic losses

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conomic losses from reduced freshwater under future climate scenarios: An example from the Urumqi River,Tianshan Mountains

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Journal of Arid Land 2022年第2期14卷 139-153页

作者： ZHANG Xueting CHEN Rensheng LIU Guohua Qilian Alpine Ecology and Hydrology Research Station Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100012China College of Urban and Environment Sciences Northwest UniversityXi'an 710000China

As important freshwater resources in alpine basins,glaciers and snow cover tend to decline due to climate warming,thus affecting the amount of water available downstream and even regional economic ***,impact assessments of the economic losses caused by reductions in freshwater supply are quite *** study aims to project changes in glacier meltwater and snowmelt of the Urumqi River in the Tianshan Mountains under future climate change scenarios(RCP2.6(RCP,Representative Concentration Pathway),RCP4.5,and RCP8.5)by applying a hydrological model and estimate the economic losses from future meltwater reduction for industrial,agricultural,service,and domestic water uses combined with the present value method for the 2030 s,2050 s,2070 s,and 2090 *** results indicate that total annual glacier meltwater and snowmelt will decrease by 65.6%and 74.5%under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the 2090 s relative to the baseline period(1980-2010),*** to the RCP2.6 scenario,the projected economic loss values of total water use from reduced glacier meltwater and snowmelt under the RCP8.5 scenario will increase by 435.10×10^(6) and 537.20×10^(6) CNY in the 2050 s and 2090 s,respectively,and the cumulative economic loss value for 2099 is approximately 2124.00×10^(6) *** also find that the industrial and agricultural sectors would likely face the largest and smallest economic losses,*** economic loss value of snowmelt in different sectorial sectors is greater than that of glacier *** findings highlight the need for climate mitigation actions,industrial transformation,and rational water allocation to be considered in decision-making in the Tianshan Mountains in the future.

关键词： glacier meltwater snowmelt freshwater supply water use economic losses future climate scenario climate change Tianshan Mountains

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Rapid estimation of disaster losses for the M6.8 Luding earthquake on September 5,2022

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Science China Earth Sciences 2023年第6期66卷 1334-1344页

作者： Wenqiang WANG Yilong LI Zhenguo ZHANG Danhua XIN Zhongqiu HE Wei ZHANG Xiaofei CHEN Department of Astronautical Science and Mechanics Harbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin 150001China Department of Earth and Space Sciences Southern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhen 518055China Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Geophysical High-resolution Imaging Technology Southern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhen 518055China

An M6.8 earthquake occurred in Luding,Sichuan Province,China,on September 5,*** towns and villages in the earthquake-stricken area are densely populated,the earthquake caused severe fatalities and economic *** estimation of earthquake intensity and disaster losses is significantly important for post-earthquake emergency rescue,scientific anti-seismic deployment,and the reduction of casualties and economic ***,we make a preliminary rapid estimation of the earthquake intensity and disaster losses in the aftermath of the Luding *** seismic intensity represents the distribution of earthquake disasters and the degree of ground damage and can be directly converted from the peak ground velocity(PGV)*** obtain a reliable PGV distribution map of this earthquake,we combined the finite-fault model constrained by seismic observations,with the complex three-dimensional(3D)geological environment and topographical features to perform strong ground motion ***,we compared the consistency between the simulated ground motion waveforms and observations,indicating the plausibility and reliability of *** addition,we transformed the PGV simulation results into intensity and obtained a physics-based map of the intensity distribution of the Luding *** maximum simulated intensity of this earthquake is IX,which is consistent with the maximum intensity determined from the postearthquake field *** on the simulated seismic intensity map of the Luding earthquake and the earthquake disaster loss estimation model,we rapidly estimated the death and economic losses caused by this *** estimated results show that the death toll caused by this earthquake is probably 50-300,with a mathematic expectation of *** the government should launch a Level II earthquake emergency response *** economic losses are likely to be 10-100 billion RMB,with a mathematical expectation of 23.205 billion *** seismic

关键词： Luding earthquake Ground motion simulation Seismic intensity Estimation of disaster losses Fatality economic losses

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Debris Flows Risk Analysis and Direct Loss Estimation:the Case Study of Valtellina di Tirano,Italy

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Journal of Mountain Science 2014年第2期11卷 288-307页

作者： Jan BLAHUT Thomas GLADE Simone STERLACCHINI Department of Engineering Geology Institute of Rock Structure and Mechanics Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic Geomorphic Systems and Risk Research Group Department of Geography and Regional Research University of Vienna Institute for the Dynamic of Environmental Processes National Research CouncilCNR-IDPA

andslide risk analysis is one of the primary studies providing essential instructions to the subsequent risk management process. The quantification of tangible and intangible potential losses is a critical step because it provides essential data upon which judgments can be made and policy can be formulated. This study aims at quantifying direct economic losses from debris flows at a medium scale in the study area in Italian Central Alps. Available hazard maps were the main inputs of this study. These maps were overlaid with information concerning elements at risk and their economic value. Then, a combination of both market and construction values was used to obtain estimates of future economic losses. As a result, two direct economic risk maps were prepared together with risk curves, useful to summarize expected monetary damage against the respective hazard probability. Afterwards, a qualitative risk map derived using a risk matrix officially provided by the set of laws issued by the regional government, was prepared. The results delimit areas of high economic as well as strategic importance which might be affected by debris flows in the future. Aside from limitations and inaccuracies inherently included in risk analysis process, identification of high risk areas allows local authorities to focus their attention on the “hot-spots”, where important consequences may arise and local （large） scale analysis needs to be performed with more precise cost-effectiveness ratio. The risk maps can be also used by the local authorities to increase population’s adaptive capacity in the disaster prevention process.

关键词： Debris flows Risk analysis economic losses Central Alps Italy

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Markers for Global Climate Change and Its Impact on Social, Biological and Ecological Systems: A Review

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American Journal of Climate Change 2020年第3期9卷 159-203页

作者： Ravi Kant Upadhyay Department of Zoology D. D. U. Gorakhpur University Gorakhpur India

Present article sketches out major climate induced changes in marine, aquatic and terrestrial life. Few important biomarkers such as ecological, meteorological, socioeconomic, thermal, biophysical and biological, behavioral markers of climate change and global environmental stress have been highlighted to predict the future challenges and finding appropriate solutions. Though, so many climate change induced effects are visible but few unpredictable effects may be seen in future. Therefore, all such effects have been acknowledged, and tried to find appropriate solutions. Most visible effect is collection of high amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which is responsible for green house effect and causing natural calamities round the globe. It is not only jeopardized the survival of terrestrial, fresh water animals mainly planktons, bottom dwellers;coral reefs, algae, fish fauna in marine environment belong to different taxon but also responsible for disruption of ocean’s food web due to non-assimilation of extra carbon dioxide by the ocean water. There is a sharp decline in fresh water and sea shore micro-flora and micro-fauna. Other major visible effects are loss of biodiversity, depletion of forests, land degradation, severe floods and draughts. On other hand sudden changes in weather conditions causing irreparable devastations due to hurricanes and typhoons, storms, lightening, earthquakes and tsunamis are normally on rise. Both economic and ecological breakdowns are occurring more frequently which are more impactful and persistent. Climate change is major human health stressor;it is making fragmentation of socio-cultural bonds and reducing fertility of soil finally crop production. Climate change is imposing non-adaptive forced human migration, territorial conflicts, decreasing ecosystem productivity, disease out breaks, and impelling unequal resource utilization.

关键词： Global Climate Change Biodiversity Loss Loss of Life Habitat economic losses Biomarkers Challenges and Solutions

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Global Effect of Climate Change on Seasonal Cycles,Vector Population and Rising Challenges of Communicable Diseases:A Review

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Journal of Atmospheric Science Research 2023年第1期6卷 21-59页

作者： Nidhi Yadav Ravi Kant Upadhyay Department of Zoology D.D.U.Gorakhpur UniversityGorakhpur273009India

This article explains ongoing changes in global climate and their effect on the resurgence of vector and pathogen populations in various parts of the ***,major prevailing changes are the elevation of global temperature and accidental torrent rains,floods,droughts,and loss of productivity and food *** to the increase in water surface area and the longer presence of flood water,the breeding of insect vectors becomes very high;it is responsible for the emergence and re-emergence of so many communicable *** to the development of resistance to chemicals in insect pests,and pathogens and lack of control measures,communicable zoonotic diseases are remerging with high infectivity and *** condition is becoming more alarming as the climate is favoring pathogen-host interactions and vector *** changes seen in meteorology are promoting an unmanageable array of vector-borne infectious diseases,such as malaria,Japanese encephalitis,filarial,dengue,and ***,due to unhygienic conditions,poor sanitation,and infected ground and surface water outbreak of enteric infections such as cholera,vibriosis,and rotavirus is seen on the *** addition,parasitic infection ascariasis,fasciolosis,schistosomiasis,and dysentery cases are *** climate change is a major issue and challenge that needs timely quick *** change is imposing non-adaptive forced human migration territorial conflicts,decreasing ecosystem productivity,disease outbreaks,and impelling unequal resource *** climate changes,parasites,pathogens,and vector populations are on the rise,which is making great threats to global health and the *** article highlighted the necessity to develop new strategies and control measures to cut down rising vector and pathogen populations in endemic *** finding quick solutions educational awareness,technology up-gradation,new vaccines,and safety measures have to be adop

关键词： Global climate change Biodiversity loss Loss of life Habitat economic losses Biomarkers Challenges and solutions

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Financial losses Associated with Bovine Brucellosis (Brucella abortus) in Carchi-Ecuador

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Open Journal of Animal Sciences 2023年第2期13卷 205-216页

作者： Marcelo Ibarra Martin Campos Christian Ibarra Urgilés Gladys Danny Huera Milena Gutiérrez Andrea Chamorro Luis Núñez Facultad de Industrias Agropecuarias y Ciencias Ambientales. Carrera Agropecuaria. Universidad Politécnica Estatal del Carchi (UPEC). Antisana S/N y Av Universitaria Tulcán Ecuador. Doctorando de la Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias Universidad Nacional de Rosario Rosario Argentina Universidad Politécnica Estatal del Carchi (UPEC). Antisana S/N y Av Universitaria Tulcán Ecuador Facultad de Industrias Agropecuarias y Ciencias Ambientales Carrera Agropecuaria Tulcán Ecuador Universidad Politécnica Estatal del Carchi Maestrante Centro de Postgrado Tulcán Ecuador Facultad de Comercio Internacional Administración y Economía Empresarial Carrera de Comercio Exterior Universidad Politécnica Estatal del Carchi Tulcán Ecuador Facultad de Industrias Agropecuarias y Ciencias Ambientales Carrera de Enfermería Universidad Politécnica Estatal del Carchi Carchi Ecuador Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud Carrera de Medicina Veterinaria One Health Research Group Universidad de Las Américas (UDLA) Quito Ecuador

Brucellosis is an infectious disease of worldwide distribution, which has a great economic impact due to the productive and reproductive losses that it causes, in addition to the serious public health problem. The aim of this study is to estimate the economic losses, through financial analysis, caused by bovine brucellosis in the province of Carchi, over a one-year period. A random sampling was used to determine the prevalence in the study area, where 2976 animals were considered, and the Rose Bengal (RB) test was used as a screening test and the Fluorescence Polarized Assay (FPA) as a confirmatory test, obtaining a prevalence of 8.2% (244/2976). In addition, parameters associated to the losses caused by brucellosis in cattle were determined by literature review. To estimate costs, field information was collected through a survey of a total of 100 randomly selected farmers. The loss estimated due to calves lost as a result of abortions and neonatal death was USD. 79170.00. The loss due to death of 4 cows as a result of metritis was estimated at USD. 5000.00. The cost of examination and treatment of aborted cows was USD. 20100.00. The losses due to reduction in milk production from aborted and non-aborted seropositive cows were estimated at USD. 158114.21. The financial losses due to brucellosis in province of Carchi were estimated at USD. 262384.21.

关键词： Bovine Brucellosis economic losses Carchi-Ecuador

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