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Trade space for time for inspecting an earthquake cycle by modern seismological observation: The central-southern part of the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block

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earthquake Research Advances 2023年第4期3卷 49-57页

作者： Yue Liu Zhongliang Wu Peng Wang Zhigang Shao Yongxian Zhang Institute of earthquake Forecasting China Earthquake Administration100036BeijingChina

The central-southern part of the eastern border of the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block provides the research strategy of ‘trade space for time' with an interesting fault system, where the segments have similar focal mechanisms and cover almost continuous spectra of elapse rates. We experiment to study the seismological characteristics of different segments with different elapse rates. We employed the de-clustered earthquake catalog for the calculation of b values for each segment. The analysis revealed that different segments have similar b values,which implies that, although different segments have different periods of earthquake recurrence, the 'natural time' for the whole fault system elapses with a homogeneous pace. We extended the earthquake potential score(EPS)for nowcasting earthquakes to a quasi-EPS(q EPS). It is found that q EPS increases with the increase of elapse rates,albeit for those fault segments whose elapse rates have exceeded 1, q EPS may better reflect the seismic hazard.

关键词： The Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block earthquake recurrence Nowcasting earthquakes The Gutenberg-Richter b-value Gaussian-like distribution

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recurrence Behaviors of earthquakes along the Kefallinia Transform Fault, Ionian Sea, Greece

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earthquake Research in China 2007年第4期21卷 409-419页

作者： Qi Cheng Athanassios Ganas Huang Fuqiong Chen Yong George Drakatos Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Institute of Geodynamics National Observatory of Athens ll810 Athens Greece Institute of earthquake Science CEA Beijing 100036 China

We examined the whole strong earthquake recurrence behaviors of two fault zones along the Kefallinia Transform, Ionian Sea, Greece, using seismological data and statistical methods. Our data include 29 events with M 〉 5.5 for the period 1636 - 2003. We found different recurrence behaviors for the Kefallinia Fault Zone （clustering and time-predictable recurrence behaviors） and the Letkada Fault Zone （near random and non-slip-predictable or non-time-predictable recurrence nature）. The different modes may be attributed to：（a） segment interaction along-strike （Kefallinia） by static triggering and （b） the influence of fault systems to the north and east on the recurrence on Lefkada. Within the active periods, earthquake recurrence intervals are distributed in a more dispersed fashion, and can be fitted well by a Weibull distribution. In contrast, the distribution of the quiet periods is relatively less dispersed and difficult to describe by suitable probability functions.

关键词： Historical earthquake Active fault zone earthquake recurrence Probability distribution Greece

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维普期刊数据库

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Study on the recurrence Probability of Strong earthquakes of Faults

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earthquake Research in China 2014年第2期28卷 152-163页

作者： Zhu Yuanqing Xie Chaodi Song Xiuqing Qin Haowen earthquake Administration of Shanghai Municipality Department of Geophysics Yunnan University

Based on the physical model of Brownian passage time,the probabilities of recurrence of strong earthquakes on the major active faults in China are calculated in different predictive time spans,based mainly on the analysis of the earthquake preparation process before a strong earthquake occurs. Furthermore,the seismic risks on active faults are studied. The results show that the earthquake probabilities on the Xianshuihe fault,the Altyn Tagh fault,the east Kunlun fault and Xiaojiang fault are significantly greater than other faults in the Chinese mainland,which indicates that the level of stress accumulation on these faults are higher than on other faults. Therefore,these faults may have a seismic risk for strong earthquake in future.

关键词： Seismic risk Brownian passage time model Conditional probability Fault earthquake recurrence

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