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Research status of earthquake forecasting in hydraulicfracturing induced earthquakes

earthquake Science 2021年第3期34卷 286-298页

作者： Qian Wang Xinxin Yin Changsheng Jiang Cong Jiang Yan Zhang Hongyu Zhai Yanbao Zhang Guijuan Lai Fengling Yin Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake AdministrationBeijing 100081China Gansu earthquake Agency Lanzhou 730000China

In the new types of industrial activities including unconventional energy extraction associated with shale gas and hot dry rock,gas reservoir operations,CO2 geological storage,undergoing research on induced earthquake forecasting has become one of the forward positions of current *** for the intense actual demand,the immature research on induced earthquake forecasting has already been applied in pre-assessment of site safety and seismic hazard and risk *** work will review systematically recent advances in earthquake forecasting induced by hydraulic fracturing during industrial production from four aspects:earthquake occurrence probability,maximum expected magnitude forecasting,seismic risk analysis for engineering and social applications and key scientific *** terms of earthquake occurrence probability,we introduce statistical forecasting models such as an improved ETAS and non-stationary ETAS and physical forecasting models such as Seismogenic Index(SI)and hydro-mechanism *** on maximum expected magnitude forecasting has experienced four stages of linear relationship with net injection volume of fluid,power exponential relationship and physical forecasting regarding fault *** seismic risk analysis,we focus on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and quantitative geological susceptibility ***,this review is extended to key scientific problems that contain obtaining accurate fault scale and environmental stress state of reservoir,critical physical process of runaway rupture,complex mechanism of fault activation as well as physical mechanism and modeling of trailing *** work in understanding induced earthquake forecasting may contribute to unconventional energy development and production,seismic hazard mitigation,emergency management and scientific research as a reference.

关键词： induced earthquakes earthquake forecasting seismic hazard mitigation of earthquake disaster risk

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Intelligent Seismic-Acoustic System for Identifying the Location of the Areas of an Expected earthquake

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2016年第4期4卷 147-162页

作者： Telman Aliev Qambar Quluyev Farhad Pashayev Ulkar Sattarova Narmin Rzayeva Institute of Control Systems of the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences Baku Azerbaijan

A brief overview of the state-of-the-art in the field of earthquake study and forecasting is presented in this paper. We analyze the principles of the methods of determining the coordinates of earthquake focuses by means of ground seismic stations. We demonstrate that those methods cannot be used in the system for monitoring of the beginning of the earthquake preparation process (in the network of RNM ASP stations). As we know, the earthquake preparation process is accompanied by spreading noisy seismic-acoustic signals. Theoretically, the system for monitoring of the beginning of the earthquake preparation process is based on the technologies for seismic-acoustic signal processing-Robust Noise Monitoring (RNM). Noise characteristics determined by RNM technologies indicate the beginning of anomalous seismic processes (ASP) and, consequently, the possibility of ASP monitoring. Considering that the seismic-acoustic signal can be represented as the sum of the useful signal and noise, we present the technologies for determining noise characteristics. It is demonstrated in the paper that a change in the estimate of the cross-correlation function between the useful signal and the noise, noise variance and the value of noise correlation determine the beginning of ASP. One RNM ASP station determines the beginning of ASP within a radius of about 500 km. Determining the location of an expected earthquake requires a network of RNM ASP stations. We analyze the results of noise technology-based monitoring of anomalous seismic processes performed from July 2010 to June 2015 on nine seismic-acoustic stations built at the head of 10 m, 200 m, 300 m and 1400 - 5000 m deep wells. Based on the results of the experimental data obtained in the period covering over three years, an intelligent system has been built, which allows for identifying the location of the zone of an earthquake, using the combinations of time of change in the estimate of the correlation function between the useful

关键词： Seismic-Acoustic Signal Robust Noise Technologies RNM ASP Station Seismic-Acoustic Monitoring Centre earthquake forecasting

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