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Development and validation of a prediction model for early screening of people at high risk for colorectal cancer

World Journal of Gastroenterology 2024年第5期30卷 450-461页

作者： Ling-Li Xu Yi Lin Li-Yuan Han Yue Wang Jian-Jiong Li Xiao-Yu Dai Department of General Surgery Ningbo No.2 HospitalNingbo 315000Zhejiang ProvinceChina Center for Health Economics Faculty of Humanities and Social SciencesUniversity of NottinghamNingbo 315100Zhejiang ProvinceChina Department of Global Health Ningbo Institute of Life and Health IndustryUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesNingbo 315000Zhejiang ProvinceChina School of Public Health Medical College of Soochow UniversitySuzhou 215123Jiangsu ProvinceChina

BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat *** early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still not *** China,the incidence of CRC in the Yangtze River Delta region is increasing dramatically,but few studies have been ***,it is necessary to develop a simple and efficient early screening model for *** To develop and validate an early-screening nomogram model to identify individuals at high risk of *** Data of 64448 participants obtained from Ningbo Hospital,China between 2014 and 2017 were retrospectively *** cohort comprised 64448 individuals,of which,530 were excluded due to missing or incorrect *** 63918,7607(11.9%)individuals were considered to be high risk for CRC,and 56311(88.1%)were *** participants were randomly allocated to a training set(44743)or validation set(19175).The discriminatory ability,predictive accuracy,and clinical utility of the model were evaluated by constructing and analyzing receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and calibration curves and by decision curve ***,the model was validated internally using a bootstrap resampling *** Seven variables,including demographic,lifestyle,and family history information,were *** logistic regression analysis revealed that age[odds ratio(OR):1.03,95%confidence interval(CI):1.02-1.03,P<0.001],body mass index(BMI)(OR:1.07,95%CI:1.06-1.08,P<0.001),waist circumference(WC)(OR:1.03,95%CI:1.02-1.03 P<0.001),lifestyle(OR:0.45,95%CI:0.42-0.48,P<0.001),and family history(OR:4.28,95%CI:4.04-4.54,P<0.001)were the most significant predictors of high-risk *** lifestyle was a protective factor,whereas family history was the most significant risk *** area under the curve was 0.734(95%CI:0.723-0.745)for the final validation set ROC curve and 0.735(95%CI:0.728-0.742)for the training s

关键词： Colorectal cancer early screening model High-risk population Nomogram model Questionnaire survey Dietary habit Living habit

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