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drought risk assessment in China:evaluation framework and influencing factors

Geography and Sustainability 2020年第3期1卷 220-228页

作者： Jiaqi Zhao Qiang Zhang Xiudi Zhu Zexi Shen Huiqian Yu Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Ministry of EducationBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

Global warming and rapid economic development have led to increased levels of disaster risk in *** attempts at assessing drought risk were highly subjective in terms of assessment methods and selection of the assessment indicators and which resulted in appreciable uncertainty in the results of these risk *** on the assumption that areas with historically high drought losses are more likely to suffer future high drought losses,we develop a new drought risk assessment model that includes historical drought loss *** this model,we map the regional differentiation of Chinese drought *** with high(extreme high)drought risk account for 4.3%of China’s *** significant high-risk areas have been identified:Northeast China,North China,the east part of Northwest China,the east part of Southwest China and a small part in the west of Northwest *** with high and extreme high drought risk are dominant in the Heilongjiang Province,accounting for 32%of the total area,followed by the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,with 26%of total *** contribution of each influencing factor has been quantified,which indicates that high-exposure and high-vulnerability account for the high-risk of *** recommend that measures like strengthening the protection of cultivated land and reducing dependence on the primary industry should be taken to mitigate to drought-induced losses.

关键词： drought risks drought risk evaluation framework drought hazard drought exposure drought vulnerability

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