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Assessing Maize drought hazard for Agricultural Areas Based on the Fuzzy Gamma Model

Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2013年第3期12卷 532-540页

作者： LIU Xing-peng ZHANG Ji-quan CAI Wei-ying TONG Zhi-jun Natural Disaster Research Institute College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Northeast Normal University Key Laboratory for Vegetation Ecology Ministry of Education/Northeast Normal University College of Tourism Changchun University

drought is one of the severe meteorological disasters and causes of serious losses for agricultural productions, and early assessment of drought hazard degree is critical in management of maize farming. This study proposes a novel method for assessment of maize drought hazard in different growth stages. First, the study divided the maize growth period into four critical growth stages, including seeding, elongation, tasseling, and filling. Second, maize drought causal factors were selected and the fuzzy membership function was established. Finally, the study built a fuzzy gamma model to assess maize drought hazards, and the gamma 0.93 was finally established using Monte Carlo Analysis. Performing fuzzy gamma operation with 0.93 for gamma and classifying the area yielded a map of maize drought hazards with four zones of light, moderate, severe, and extreme droughts. Using actual field collected data, seven selected samples for drought hazard degree were examined, the model output proved to be a valid tool in the assessment maize drought hazard. This model will be very useful in analyzing the spatial change of maize drought hazard and influence on yield, which is significant for drought management in major agricultural areas.

关键词： maize growth period fuzzy gamma modeling drought hazard

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drought risk assessment in China:Evaluation framework and influencing factors

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Geography and Sustainability 2020年第3期1卷 220-228页

作者： Jiaqi Zhao Qiang Zhang Xiudi Zhu Zexi Shen Huiqian Yu Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Ministry of EducationBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

Global warming and rapid economic development have led to increased levels of disaster risk in *** attempts at assessing drought risk were highly subjective in terms of assessment methods and selection of the assessment indicators and which resulted in appreciable uncertainty in the results of these risk *** on the assumption that areas with historically high drought losses are more likely to suffer future high drought losses,we develop a new drought risk assessment model that includes historical drought loss *** this model,we map the regional differentiation of Chinese drought *** with high(extreme high)drought risk account for 4.3%of China’s *** significant high-risk areas have been identified:Northeast China,North China,the east part of Northwest China,the east part of Southwest China and a small part in the west of Northwest *** with high and extreme high drought risk are dominant in the Heilongjiang Province,accounting for 32%of the total area,followed by the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,with 26%of total *** contribution of each influencing factor has been quantified,which indicates that high-exposure and high-vulnerability account for the high-risk of *** recommend that measures like strengthening the protection of cultivated land and reducing dependence on the primary industry should be taken to mitigate to drought-induced losses.

关键词： drought risks drought risk evaluation framework drought hazard drought exposure drought vulnerability

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