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Estimating the drought-Induced Yield Loss for Winter Wheat in a Semi-Arid Region of the Southern United States Using a drought index

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Agricultural Sciences 2024年第8期15卷 812-829页

作者： Prem Woli Qingwu Xue Gerald R. Smith Charles R. Long Francis M. Rouquette Jr. Texas A&M AgriLife Research Center Overton Texas USA Texas A&M AgriLife Research Center Amarillo Texas USA

The economy of most rural locations in the semi-arid region of Llano Estacado in the southern United States is predominantly based on agriculture, primarily beef and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production. This region is prone to drought and is projected to experience a drier climate. droughts that coincide with the critical phenological phases of a crop can be remarkably costly. Although drought cannot be prevented, its losses can be minimized through mitigation measures if it is predicted in advance. Predicting yield loss from an imminent drought is an important need of stakeholders. One way to fulfill this need is using an agricultural drought index, such as the Agricultural Reference index for drought (ARID). Being plant physiology-based, ARID can represent drought-yield relationships accurately. This study developed an ARID-based yield model for predicting the drought-induced yield loss for winter wheat in this region by accounting for its phenological phase-specific sensitivity to water stress. The reasonable values of the drought sensitivity coefficients of the yield model indicated that it could reflect the phenomenon of water stress decreasing the winter wheat yields in this region reasonably. The values of the various metrics used to evaluate the model, including Willmott index (0.86), Nash-Sutcliffe index (0.61), and percentage error (26), indicated that the yield model performed fairly well at predicting the drought-induced yield loss for winter wheat. The yield model may be useful for predicting the drought-induced yield loss for winter wheat in the study region and scheduling irrigation allocation based on phenological phase-specific drought sensitivity.

关键词： ARID drought drought index Growth-stage Model Phenological-Phase Prediction Semi-Arid Wheat Yield

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The Research about A Regional drought Identifying System Based on Dynamic drought index

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Meteorological and Environmental Research 2010年第9期1卷 94-96页

作者：王俊胡继超袁学所吴有华南京信息工程大学应用气象学院江苏南京210044 安徽省全椒县气象局安徽全椒239500 安徽省凤阳县气象局安徽凤阳233100

With the data of daily precipitation and daily evaporation,dynamic drought index was calculated and compared with the identification standard of drought grade to qualify the severity of *** to the dynamic drought index,a regional drought identifying system was developed for the watershed between the reach of the Yangtze River and Huaihe River in Anhui Province by using VC++ working platform and Access *** drought identifying system would be very useful to forecast and early warn the happening of drought in this area.

关键词： drought index drought identifying system Daily precipitation China

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index-based assessment of agricultural drought in a semi-arid region of Inner Mongolia, China

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Journal of Arid Land 2014年第1期6卷 3-15页

作者： Rui LI Atsushi TSUNEKAWA Mitsuru TSUBO United Graduate School of Agricultural Sciences Koyama-Minami 4-101Tottori University Arid Land Research Center Tottori University

Agricultural drought is a type of natural disaster that seriously impacts food *** the relationships among short-term rainfall,soil moisture,and crop growth are complex,accurate identification of a drought situation is *** this study,using a conceptual model based on the relationship between water deficit and crop yield reduction,we evaluated the drought process in a typical rainfed agricultural region,Hailar county in Inner Mongolia autonomous region,*** quantify drought,we used the precipitation-based Standardized Precipitation index(SPI),the soil moisture-based Crop Moisture index(CMI),as well as the Normalized Difference Vegetation index(NDVI).Correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relationships between dekad-scale drought indices during the growing season(May–September)and final yield,according to data collection from 2000 to *** results show that crop yield has positive relationships with CMI from mid-June to mid-July and with the NDVI anomaly throughout July,but no correlation with *** analysis of the relationship between the two drought indices shows that the NDVI anomaly responds to CMI with a lag of 1 dekad,particularly in *** examine the feasibility of employing these indices for monitoring the drought process at a dekad time scale,a detailed drought assessment was carried out for selected drought *** results confirm that the soil moisture-based vegetation indices in the late vegetative to early reproductive growth stages can be used to detect agricultural drought in the study ***,the framework of the conceptual model developed for drought monitoring can be employed to support drought mitigation in the rainfed agricultural region of Northern China.

关键词： drought assessment drought index dekad time scale rainfed agriculture

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Annual growth of Fagus orientalis is limited by spring drought conditions in Iran’s Golestan Province

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Journal of Forestry Research 2024年第1期35卷 128-142页

作者： Khalil Ghorbani Jahangir Mohammadi Laleh Rezaei Ghaleh Department of Water Engineering Faculty of Water and Soil EngineeringGorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural ResourcesGorganIran Department of Forestry Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural ResourcesGorganIran Department of Water Engineering Faculty of AgricultureUrmia UniversityUrmiaIran

Due to the lack of a uniform and accurate defi-nition of‘drought’,several indicators have been introduced based on different variables and methods,and the efficiency of each of these is determined according to their relationship with *** relationship between two drought indices,SPI(standardized precipitation index)and SPEI(standard-ized precipitation-evapotranspiration index)in different sea-sons was investigated using annual rings of 15 tree samples to determine the effect of drought on the growth of oriental beech(Fagus orientalis Lipsky)in the Hyrcanian forests of northern *** different evapotranspiration calcula-tion methods were evaluated on SPEI efficiency based on Hargreaves-Samani,Thornthwaite,and Penman-Monteith methods using the step-by-step M5 decision tree regression *** results show that SPEI based on the Penman-Monteith in a three-month time scale(spring)had similar temporal changes and a better relationship with annual tree rings(R^(2)=0.81)at a 0.05 significant *** change and a decreasing trend in the time series of annual tree rings are similar to the variation in the SPEI based on the Penman-Monteith *** affecting evapotranspiration,temperature,wind speed,and sunshine hours(used in the Penman-Monteith method),increased but precipitation *** non-linear modeling methods,SPEI based on Penman-Monteith best illustrated climate changes affecting tree growth.

关键词： Climate change drought index Hyrcanian forests SPEI'Annual growth rings Fagus orientalis

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Estimating the Yield Loss of Winter Wheat from drought in the United States Southern Plains Region as Influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

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Agricultural Sciences 2024年第9期15卷 1018-1034页

作者： Prem Woli Gerald R. Smith Charles R. Long Francis M. Rouquette, Jr. Texas A&M AgriLife Research Center Overton USA

Wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) production is a major economic activity in most regional and rural areas in the Southern Plains, a semi-arid region of the United States. This region is vulnerable to drought and is projected to experience a drier climate in the future. Since the interannual variability in climate in this region is linked to an ocean-atmospheric phenomenon, called El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), droughts in this region may be associated with ENSO. droughts that occur during the critical growth phases of wheat can be extremely costly. However, the losses due to an impending drought can be minimized through mitigation measures if it is predicted in advance. Predicting the yield loss from an imminent drought is crucial for stakeholders. One of the reliable ways for such prediction is using a plant physiology-based agricultural drought index, such as Agricultural Reference index for drought (ARID). This study developed ENSO phase-specific, ARID-based models for predicting the drought-induced yield loss for winter wheat in this region by accounting for its phenological phase-specific sensitivity to drought. The reasonable values of the drought sensitivity coefficients of the yield model for each ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña, or Neutral) indicated that the yield models reflected reasonably well the phenomena of water stress decreasing the winter wheat yields in this region during different ENSO phases. The values of various goodness-of-fit measures used, including the Nash-Sutcliffe index (0.54 to 0.67), the Willmott index (0.82 to 0.89), and the percentage error (20 to 26), indicated that the yield models performed fairly well at predicting the ENSO phase-specific loss of wheat yields from drought. This yield model may be useful for predicting yield loss from drought and scheduling irrigation allocation based on the phenological phase-specific sensitivity to drought as impacted by ENSO.

关键词： ARID drought drought index ENSO El Niño Growth-Stage Model Phenological-Phase Prediction Semi-Arid Wheat Yield Loss

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Comparison of Two drought Indices in Studying Regional Meteorological drought Events in China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第1期31卷 187-195页

作者： Yongmei WANG Fumin REN Yilei ZHAO Yunjie LI Yuncheng Meteorological Observatory Yuncheng 044000 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 95810 Troops Beijing 100076 Zhuhai Meteorological Observatory Zhuhai 519000

The composite-drought index （CI）, improved weighted average of precipitation index （IWAP）, and the objective identification technique for regional extreme events （OITREE） were employed to detect China＇s regional meteorolo- gical drought events （CRMDEs） during 1961-2010. Compared with existing references, CI and IWAP both showed strong ability in identifying CRMDEs. Generally, the results of CI and IWAP were consistent, especially for extreme and severe CRMDEs. During 1961-2010, although the frequencies of extreme and severe CRMDEs based on C! and IWAP both showed weak decreasing trends, the two mean-integrated indices both showed increasing but not signifi- cant trends. However, the results of IWAP were more reasonable than CI＇s in two aspects. Firstly, the monthly fre- quency of extreme and severe CRMDEs based on IWAP showed a clear seasonal variation, which coincided with the seasonal variation of the East Asian monsoon over central-eastern China, whereas the frequency based on CI presen- ted a much weaker seasonal variation. Secondly, the two sets of results were sometimes inconsistent with respect to the start and end times of a CRMDE, and CRMDEs based on CI generally showed two unreasonable phenomena：（1） under non-drought conditions, a severe drought stage could suddenly occur in a large area; and （2） during the follow- ing period, drought could alleviate gradually in cases of non-precipitation. Comparative analysis suggested that the IWAP drought index possesses obvious advantages in detecting and monitoring regional drought events.

关键词： drought index regional drought China comparative analysis

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Evaluation of the applicability of multiple drought indices in the core zone of “westerlies-dominated climatic regime”

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Science China Earth Sciences 2023年第7期66卷 1504-1520页

作者： Huiwen GUO Wei HUANG Tingting XIE Shuai MA Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems(Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environmental SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China

drought indices are frequently used to measure the intensity,start and end of ***,the performances of these indices depend on regions and the type of ***,it is necessary to evaluate whether these indices are applicable for a given *** study evaluated the ability of the self-calibrating Palmer drought Severity index(sc PDSI),the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration index(SPEI),and the Standardized Moisture Anomaly index(SZI) to describe the dry-wet conditions and drought events in the core zone of the “westerlies-dominated climatic regime”.The results showed that the 12-month SZI(SZI12) and SPEI(SPEI12) have good correlations with precipitation and PET respectively,while the sc PDSI can capture the changes in precipitation and soil *** Xinjiang region of China,the SZI12 and sc PDSI showed that this region gradually became wetter during 1961–2014,which was consistent with increased precipitation,decreased PET,and improved ***,the SPEI12 showed significant drying due to the strong influence of the PET,suggesting that this index exaggerated the drought conditions in this *** in Kazakhstan and the southern Central Asian regions has increased slightly over the past 50 years,but the PET has greatly increased,altogether,all three indices suggested a drying trend in Central *** evaluation of the ability of these drought indices to identify typical drought events in Xinjiang region of China suggested that the sc PDSI can better detect the typical drought events compared with the *** conclusion,the sc PDSI is the most suitable index for characterizing the long-term trend of hydroclimate conditions and drought events in the core zone of the “westerlies-dominated climatic regime”.This study provides a theoretical basis for the rational utilization and improvement of the drought index,which is critical for monitoring,attributing,and predicting of drought events in arid areas.

关键词： drought index Applicability of the drought index Hydroclimate conditions Potential evapotranspiration drought events

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Comparison of three remotely sensed drought indices for assessing the impact of drought on winter wheat yield

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International Journal of Digital Earth 2020年第4期13卷 504-526页

作者： Jianxi Huang Wen Zhuo Ying Li Ran Huang Fernando Sedano Wei Su Jinwei Dong Liyan Tian Yanbo Huang Dehai Zhu Xiaodong Zhang College of Land Science and Technology China Agricultural UniversityBeijingPeople’s Republic of China Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing for Agri-Hazards Ministry of AgricultureBeijingPeople’s Republic of China CMA·Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique ZhengzhouPeople’s Republic of China Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences ZhengzhouPeople’s Republic of China Department of Geographical Sciences University of MarylandCollege ParkMDUSA Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingPeople’s Republic of China Department of Geography College of GeosciencesTexas A&M UniversityCollege StationTXUSA United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research ServiceCrop Production Systems Research UnitStonevilleMSUSA

Agricultural drought threatens food *** remote-sensing drought indices have been developed,but their different principles,assumptions and physical quantities make it necessary to compare their suitability for drought monitoring over large ***,we analyzed the performance of three typical remote sensing-based drought indices for monitoring agricultural drought in two major agricultural production regions in Shaanxi and Henan provinces,northern China(predominantly rain-fed and irrigated agriculture,respectively):vegetation health index(VHI),temperature vegetation dryness index(TVDI)and drought severity index(DSI).We compared the agreement between these indices and the standardized precipitation index(SPI),soil moisture,winter wheat yield and National Meteorological drought Monitoring(NMDM)*** average,DSI outperformed the other indices,with stronger correlations with SPI and soil *** also corresponded better with soil moisture and NMDM *** jointing and grain-filling stages of winter wheat are more sensitive to water stress,indicating that winter wheat required more water during these ***,the correlations between the drought indices and SPI,soil moisture,and winter wheat yield were generally stronger in Shaanxi province than in Henan province,suggesting that remote-sensing drought indices provide more accurate predictions of the impacts of drought in predominantly rain-fed agricultural areas.

关键词： Agricultural drought remote sensing drought index winter wheat yield

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Tree mortality and biomass loss in drought-aff ected forests of East Texas,USA

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Journal of Forestry Research 2021年第1期32卷 67-80页

作者： Mukti Ram Subedi Weimin Xi Christopher B.Edgar Sandra Rideout-Hanzak Ming Yan Department of Biological and Health Sciences Texas A&M University-KingsvilleKingsvilleTX 78363USA Department of Forest Resources University of MinnesotaSt.PaulMN 55108USA Department of Rangeland and Wildlife Sciences and Caesar Kleberg Wildlife Research Institute Texas A&M University-KingsvilleKingsvilleTX 78363USA School of Life Sciences Shanxi Normal UniversityLinfen 041004People’s Republic of China

Changes in tree mortality due to severe drought can alter forest structure,composition,dynamics,ecosystem services,carbon fl uxes,and energy interactions between the atmosphere and land *** utilized long-term(2000‒2017,3 full inventory cycles)Forest Inventory and Analysis(FIA)data to examine tree mortality and biomass loss in drought-aff ected forests for East Texas,*** that experienced six or more years of droughts during those censuses were selected based on 12-month moderate drought severity[Standardized Precipitation Evaporation index(SPEI)-1.0].Plots that experienced other disturbances and inconsistent records were excluded from the *** total,222 plots were retained from nearly 4000 *** nonlinear mixed models(GNMMs)were used to examine the changes in tree mortality and recruitment rates for selected *** results showed that tree mortality rates and biomass loss to mortality increased overall,and across tree sizes,dominant genera,height classes,and *** average mortality rate of 5.89%year−1 during the study period could be incited by water stress created by the regional prolonged and episodic drought *** overall plot and species-group level recruitment rates decreased during the study *** mortality showed mixed results regarding basal area and forest density using all plots together and when analyzed the plots by stand origin and *** mortality rates of smaller trees were detected and were likely compounded by densitydependent *** analysis of drought-induced tree mortality using hydro-meteorological data along with drought severity and length gradient is suggested to better understand the eff ects of drought on tree mortality and biomass loss around and beyond East Texas in the southeastern United States.

关键词： Generalized nonlinear mixed model Endogenous factors drought index Standardized precipitation evaporation index(SPEI) Above-ground biomass Competition index Biomass lost to mortality East Texas

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Comparative evaluation of impacts of climate change and droughts on river flow vulnerability in Iran

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Water Science and Engineering 2020年第4期13卷 265-274页

作者： Zahra Noorisameleh Shahriar Khaledi Alireza Shakiba Parviz Zeaiean Firouzabadi William AGough MMonirul Qader Mirza Faculty of Earth Sciences Shahid Beheshti UniversityTehran ***Iran Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences University of Toronto ScarboroughToronto M1C 1A4Canada Faculty of Geographical Sciences Kharazmi UniversityTehran 15719-14911Iran

Rivers in arid and semi-arid regions are threatened by droughts and climate *** study focused on a comparative evaluation of the impacts of climate change and droughts on the vulnerability of river flows in three basins with diverse climates in *** standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index(SPEI)and precipitation effectiveness variables(PEVs)extracted from the conjunctive precipitation effectiveness index(CPEI)were used to analyze the drought *** investigate hydrological droughts in the basins,the normalized difference water index(NDWI)and the streamflow drought index(SDI)were calculated and *** effects of droughts were assessed under various representative concentration pathway(RCP)*** in the number of wet days and precipitation depth restricted hydrological droughts,whereas an increasing number of dry days amplified their *** projected increases in dry days and precipitation over short durations throughout a year under future climate scenarios would produce changes in drought and flood periods and ultimately impact the frequency and severity of hydrological *** RCP 4.5,an increase in the frequencies of moderate and severe meteorological/hydrological droughts would further affect the Central Desert *** RCPs 2.6 and 8.5,the frequencies of severe and extreme droughts would increase,but the drought area would be smaller than that under RCP 4.5,demonstrating less severe drought *** to the shallow depths of most rivers,SDI was found to be more feasible than NDWI in detecting hydrological droughts.©2020 Hohai *** and hosting by Elsevier *** is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license(http://***/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

关键词： Climate change River flow Precipitation drought index Standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index Iran

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