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Clinical implications of doubling time of gastrointestinal submucosal tumors

World Journal of Gastroenterology 2016年第45期22卷 10015-10023页

作者： Shuko Koizumi Mitsuhiro Kida Hiroshi Yamauchi Kosuke Okuwaki Tomohisa Iwai Shiro Miyazawa Miyoko Takezawa Hiroshi Imaizumi Wasaburo Koizumi Department of Gastroenterology Kitasato University School of Medicine

AIM To evaluate the efficacy of doubling time(DT) of gastrointestinal submucosal tumors(GIST).METHODS From April 1987 through November 2012, a total of 323 patients were given a final histopathological diagnosis of GISTs on surgical resection or endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration(EUS-FNA) in Kitasato University East Hospital or Kitasato University Hospital. We studied 53 of these patients(34 with resected tumors and 19 with unresected tumors) whose tumors could be measured on EUS on at least two successive occasions. The histopathological diagnosis was GIST in 34 patients, leiomyoma in 5, schwannoma in 3, ectopic pancreas in 1, hamartoma in 1, cyst in 1, Brunner's adenoma in 1, and spindle-cell tumor in 7. We retrospectively calculated the DT of GISTs on the basis of the time course of EUS findings to estimate the growth rate of such *** The DT was 17.2 mo for GIST, as compared with 231.2 mo for leiomyoma, 104.7 mo for schwannoma, 274.9mo for ectopic pancreas, 61.2 mo for hamartoma, 49.0 mo for cyst, and 134.7 mo for Brunner's adenoma. The GISTs were divided into risk classes on the basis of tumor diameters and mitotic figures(Fletcher's classification). The classification was extremely low risk or low risk in 28 patients, intermediate risk in 3, and high risk in 3. DT of GIST according to risk was 24.0 mo for extremely low-risk plus low-risk GIST, 17.1 mo for intermediate-risk GIST, and 3.9 mo for high-risk GIST. DT of GIST was significantly shorter than that of leiomyoma plus schwannoma(P < 0.05), and DT of high-risk GIST was significantly shorter than that of extremely low-risk plus low-risk GIST(P < 0.05).CONCLUSION For GIST, a higher risk grade was associated with a significantly shorter DT. Small SMTs should initially be followed up within 6 mo after detection.

关键词： Gastrointestinal submucosal tumor doubling time Submucosal tumor Initial observational duration Endoscopic ultrasonography Endoscopic ultrasonography-guided fine needle aspiration Fletcher’s classification

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Prostate-specific antigen doubling time and response to cabazitaxel in a hormone-resistant metastatic prostate cancer patient

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The Journal of Biomedical Research 2015年第5期29卷 420-422页

作者： Marwan Ghosn Alain Dagher Fadi El-Karak Hematology-Oncology Department Faculty of MedicineSaint-Joseph University

We report a case of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer, who received prior treatment with docetaxel and was then given cabazitaxel as salvage therapy. The patient was monitored by prostate-specific antigen doubling time and prostate-specific antigen absolute value. The prostate-specific antigen doubling time was found to be a good response predictor in the patient.

关键词： prostate-specific antigen doubling time prostate cancer cabazitaxel docetaxel

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COVID-19 seeding time and doubling time model:an early epidemic risk assessment tool

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2020年第3期9卷 3-11页

作者： Lei Zhou Jiang-Mei Liu Xiao-Ping Dong Jennifer M.McGoogan Zun-You Wu Public Health Emergency Center Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention155 Changbai RoadChangping DistrictBeijing 102206China National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention155 Changbai RoadChangping DistrictBeijing 102206China Global Health Center Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention155 Changbai RoadChangping DistrictBeijing 102206China National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention155 Changbai RoadChangping DistrictBeijing 102206China

Background:As COVID-19 makes its way around the globe,each nation must decide when and how to *** many knowledge gaps persist,and many countries lack the capacity to develop complex models to assess risk and *** paper aimed to meet this need by developing a model that uses case reporting data as input and provides a four-tiered risk assessment ***:We used publicly available,country/territory level case reporting data to determine median seeding number,mean seeding time(ST),and several measures of mean doubling time(DT)for *** then structured our model as a coordinate plane with ST on the x-axis,DT on the y-axis,and mean ST and mean DT dividing the plane into four quadrants,each assigned a risk *** analysis was performed and countries/territories early in their outbreaks were assessed for ***:Our main finding was that among 45 countries/territories evaluated,87%were at high risk for their outbreaks entering a rapid growth phase *** furthermore found that the model was sensitive to changes in DT,and that these changes were consistent with what is officially known of cases reported and control strategies implemented in those ***:Our main finding is that the ST/DT Model can be used to produce meaningful assessments of the risk of escalation in country/territory-level COVID-19 epidemics using only case reporting *** model can help support timely,decisive action at the national level as leaders and other decision makers face of the serious public health threat that is COVID-19.

关键词： Seeding time doubling time Case report Risk assessment SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19

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Th–U cycle performance analysis based on molten chloride salt and molten fluoride salt fast reactors

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Nuclear Science and Techniques 2020年第8期31卷 116-128页

作者： Liao-Yuan He Shao-Peng Xia Xue-Mei Zhou Jin-Gen Chen Gui-Min Liu Yang Zou Rui Yan Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesShanghai 201800China CAS Innovative Academies in TMSR Energy System Chinese Academy of SciencesShanghai 201800China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

The recent development of molten salt fast reactors has generated a renewed interest in them. As compared to traditional solid fuel fast neutron systems, it has many unique advantages, e.g., lower fissile inventory,no initial criticality reserve, waste reduction, and a simplified fuel cycle. It has been recognized as an ideal reactor for achieving a closed Th–U cycle. Based on the carrier salt, molten salt fast reactors could be divided into either a molten chloride salt fast reactor(MCFR) or a molten fluoride salt fast reactor(MFFR);to compare their Th–U cycle performance, the neutronic parameters in a breeding and burning(B&B) transition scenario were studied based on similar core geometry and power. The results demonstrated that the required reprocessing rate for an MCFR to achieve self-breeding was lower than that of an ***, the breeding capability of an MCFR was better than that of an MFFR;at a reprocessing rate of 40 L/day,using LEU and Pu as start-up fissile materials, the doubling time(DT) of an MFFR and MCFR were 88.0 years and 48.0 years, and 16.5 years and 16.2 years, ***, an MCFR has lower radio-toxicity due to lower buildup of fission products(FPs) and transuranium(TRU),while an MFFR has a larger, delayed neutron fraction with smaller changes during the entire operation.

关键词： Th–U cycle Molten salt fast reactor Breeding capability doubling time

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Implementation of a real-time, data-driven online Epidemic Calculator for tracking the spread of COVID-19 in Singapore and other countries

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 1159-1172页

作者： Fook Fah Yap Minglee Yong Nanyang Technological University School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering50 Nanyang AveSingapore639798Singapore Nanyang Technological University National Institute of Education1 Nanyang WalkSingapore637616Singapore

While there are many online data dashboards on COVID-19,there are few analytics available to the public and non-epidemiologists to help them gain a deeper insight into the COVID-19 pandemic and evaluate the effectiveness of social intervention *** address the issue,this study describes the methods underlying the development of a realtime,data-driven online Epidemic Calculator for tracking COVID-19 growth *** publicly available infection case and death data,the calculator is used to estimate the effective reproduction number,final epidemic size,and death *** a case study,we analyzed the results for Singapore during the"Circuit Breaker"period from April 7,2020 to the end of May *** calculator shows that the stringent measures imposed have an immediate effect of rapidly slowing down the spread of the *** about two weeks,the effective reproduction number reduced to about *** then,the number has been fluctuating around 1.0 for more than a *** COVID-19 Epidemic Calculator is available in the form of an online Google Sheet and the results are presented as Tableau Public dashboards at *** making the calculator readily accessible online,the public can have a tool to assess the effectiveness of measures to control the pandemic meaningfully.

关键词： COVID-19 Reproduction number doubling time Epidemic calculator Singapore

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Sensitivity of UK Covid-19 deaths to the timing of suppression measures and their relaxation

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 525-535页

作者： John S.Dagpunar Department of Mathematical Sciences University of SouthamptonUniversity RoadSouthamptonSO171BJUnited Kingdom

In this paper I examine the sensitivity of total UK Covid-19 deaths and the demand for intensive care and ward beds,to the timing and duration of suppression periods during a 500-day *** is achieved via a SEIR *** an expected latent period of 4.5 days and infectious period of 3.8 days,R0 was first estimated as 3.18 using observed death rates under unmitigated spread and then under the effects of the total lockdown(R0-0.60)beginning 23 *** case fatality rate given infection is taken as 1%.Parameter values for mean length of stay and conditional probability of death for ICU and non-ICU hospital admissions are guided by Ferguson et al.(2020).Under unmitigated spread the model predicts around 600,000 deaths in the *** with one exposed person at time zero and a suppression consistent with an R0 of 0.60 on day 72,the model predicts around 39,000 deaths for a first wave,but this reduces to around 11,000 if the intervention takes place one week *** the initial suppression were in place until day 200 and then relaxed to an R0 of 1.5 between days 200 and 300,to be followed by a return to an R0 of 0.60,the model predicts around 43,000 *** would increase to around 64,000 if the release from the first suppression takes place 20 days *** results indicate the extreme sensitivity to timing and the consequences of even small delays to suppression and premature relaxation of such measures.

关键词： Covid-19 SEIR model Lockdown Suppression Halving time doubling time

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Effect of Salinity on Growth of Mussels,Mytilus edulis,with Special Reference to Great Belt(Denmark)

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Open Journal of Marine Science 2012年第4期2卷 167-176页

作者： Hans Ulrik Riisgard Line Bottiger Daniel Pleissner Marine Biological Research Centre University of Southern DenmarkKertemindeDenmark

The effects of salinities between 10 and 30 psu on the growth of blue mussels, Mytilus edulis, were studied in laboratory feeding experiments and compared to the growth of mussels suspended in net-bags in the brackish water Great Belt, Denmark. In the laboratory, 3 series of growth experiments were conducted: in Series #1, groups of mussels were exposed to 10, 15, 25 and 30 psu, in Series #2, two groups of mussels were exposed to 10 and 30 psu, respectively, for 15 days (first period) where upon the mussels were exposed to the reversed salinities for another 15 days (second period). In Series #3, two groups of mussels were initially exposed to 15 and 25 psu for 22 days whereupon the mussel groups were exposed to the reversed salinities for another 17 days. In the laboratory experiments there was a tendency towards reduced growth with decreasing salinity, reflected as reduced shell growth rate and decreasing weight specific growth rate with falling salinity. The shell growth rate was relatively low in the first feeding period compared to the second period, and mussels that were initially exposed to 10 psu, where the growth was low, exhibited fast growth when subsequently exposed to 30 psu, and reversed when 30 psu mussels were exposed to 10 psu. The study showed that mussels are able to adjust growth at changing salinities, and the observed effect of salinity could partly be explained by a temporary shell valve closure after a sudden change in salinity. The specific growth rate of mussels measured in laboratory experiments at salinities between 15 to 25 psu (4.2% to 4.8% d–1) were comparable to the growth of mussels in the field experiment (3.2% to 4.0% d–1) where the salinity varied between 24 and 13 psu during the growth period.

关键词： Mussels Mytilus edulis Salinity Effects Growth Rates Condition Index doubling time

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