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Optimal decision-making in relieving global high temperature-related disease burden by data-driven simulation

Infectious disease Modelling 2024年第2期9卷 618-633页

作者： Xin-Chen Li Hao-Ran Qian Yan-Yan Zhang Qi-Yu Zhang Jing-Shu Liu Hong-Yu Lai Wei-Guo Zheng Jian Sun Bo Fu Xiao-Nong Zhou Xiao-Xi Zhang School of Global Health Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases ResearchShanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghaiPeople's Republic of China Institute of One Health Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityShanghaiPeople's Republic of China School of Public Health Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghaiPeople's Republic of China School of Data Science Fudan UniversityShanghaiPeople's Republic of China

The rapid acceleration of global warming has led to an increased burden of high temperature-related diseases(HTDs),highlighting the need for advanced evidence-based management *** have developed a conceptual framework aimed at alleviating the global burden of HTDs,grounded in the One Health *** framework refines the impact pathway and establishes systematic data-driven models to inform the adoption of evidence-based decision-making,tailored to distinct *** collected extensive national-level data from authoritative public databases for the years 2010–*** burdens of five categories of disease causes–cardiovascular diseases,infectious respiratory diseases,injuries,metabolic diseases,and non-infectious respiratory diseases–were designated as intermediate outcome *** cumulative burden of these five categories,referred to as the total HTD burden,was the final outcome *** evaluated the predictive performance of eight models and subsequently introduced twelve intervention measures,allowing us to explore optimal decision-making strategies and assess their corresponding *** model selection results demonstrated the superior performance of the Graph Neural Network(GNN)model across various *** simulations driven by the GNN model,we identified a set of optimal intervention strategies for reducing disease burden,specifically tailored to the seven major regions:East Asia and Pacific,Europe and Central Asia,Latin America and the Caribbean,Middle East and North Africa,North America,South Asia,and Sub-Saharan *** mitigation and adaptation measures,acting upon our categories of Infrastructure&Community,Ecosystem Resilience,and Health System Capacity,exhibited particularly strong performance for various regions and *** out of twelve interventions were included in the optimal intervention package for each region,including raising low-carbon energy use,increasing energy intensity,improving

关键词： High temperature-related diseases Data-driven simulation Optimal intervention disease burden Graph neural network Global warming

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Beyond Stitches: Analysis of disease burden in a Bangladeshi RMG Factory

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Health 2024年第7期16卷 688-702页

作者： Mariam Zaman Tayeb Ahmmed Nabila Binte Hossain S. M. Raysul Haque Ariful Islam Joarder Kamran ul Baset Department of Procurement SM Group Dhaka Bangladesh Department of Neurosurgery Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University (BSMMU) Dhaka Bangladesh Department of Public Health Independent University Bangladesh (IUB) Dhaka Bangladesh Department of Cardiology Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University (BSMMU) Dhaka Bangladesh

Introduction: Bangladesh has experienced remarkable growth in RMG over the past 25 years. With the knitwear industry providing more than 4 million direct jobs, providing better occupational health and safety of workers remains a challenge. Aim of the study: The aim of the study was to analyze the disease burden of a RMG factory, and to highlight occupational health risks. Methods: A cross-sectional study design was employed for this analysis. A 17-month data entry (January 2020 - May 2021) was gathered from the factory in-house clinic. The socio-demographic and clinical diagnosis entries of 8421 entries were analyzed. Result: The population of the factory workers is 5370, where 40% (2148) are female workers and 60% (3222) are male workers. The mean age of respondents is 30 years, with a SD of ±7 years. Among the chief complaints, the most common was vomiting (14%;2262) fever (14%;2247), runny nose (11%;1842), cough (9%;1465), and loose motion (8%;1364). In the diagnosis categories, gastrointestinal diseases were more predominantly diagnosed (35%;2978), followed by viral fever (21%;1772), neurological diseases (16.5%;1389) and musculoskeletal disorders (9%;768). The average cost of medicine for each respondent is BDT 36. The factory covered costs of all medication for 99% (8380) of respondents. Only 0.5% (37) was referred to a tertiary hospital for further evaluation. Conclusion: Garments workers suffer mostly from long-term occupational health hazards. Factory owners and policy makers can contribute in various ways to improving primary healthcare options for workers.

关键词： RMG disease burden Work Related disease Communicable disease Occupational Safety

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Clinical epidemiology and disease burden of bronchiolitis in hospitalized children in China:a national cross-sectional study

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World Journal of Pediatrics 2023年第9期19卷 851-863页

作者： Jiao Tian Xin‑Yu Wang Lin‑Lin Zhang Meng‑Jia Liu Jun‑Hong Ai Guo‑Shuang Feng Yue‑Ping Zeng Ran Wang Zheng‑De Xie Beijing Key Laboratory of Pediatric Respiratory Infectious diseases Key Laboratory of Major Diseases in ChildrenMinistry of EducationNational Clinical Research Center for Respiratory DiseasesResearch Unit of Critical Infection in ChildrenChinese Academy of Medical Sciences2019RU016Laboratory of Infection and VirologyBeijing Pediatric Research InstituteBeijing Children’s HospitalCapital Medical UniversityNational Center for Children’s HealthNan Li Shi Lu 56#Beijing 100045China Big Data Center Beijing Children’s HospitalCapital Medical UniversityNational Center for Children’s HealthBeijingChina Medical Record Management Ofce Beijing Children’s HospitalCapital Medical UniversityNational Center for Children’s HealthBeijingChina

Background Bronchiolitis is a common acute lower respiratory tract infection(ALRTI)and the most frequent cause of hospitalization of infants and young children with *** syncytial virus is the main pathogen that leads to severe *** disease burden is relatively *** date,few descriptions of the clinical epidemiology and disease burden of children hospitalized for bronchiolitis are *** study reports the general clinical epidemiological characteristics and disease burden of bronchiolitis in hospitalized children in *** This study included the face sheet of discharge medical records collected from 27 tertiary children’s hospitals from January 2016 to December 2020 that were aggregated into the FUTang Update medical REcords(FUTURE)*** sociodemographic variables,length of stay(LOS)and disease burden of children with bronchiolitis were analyzed and compared using appropriate statistical *** In total,42,928 children aged 0–3 years were hospitalized due to bronchiolitis from January 2016 to December 2020,accounting for 1.5%of the total number of hospitalized children of the same age in the database during the period and 5.31%of the hospitalizations for *** male to female ratio was 2.01:***,more boys than girls were observed in different regions,age groups,years,and *** 1–2 year age group had the greatest number of hospitalizations for bronchiolitis,while the 29 days–6 months group had the largest proportion of the total inpatients and inpatients with ALRTI in the same age *** terms of region,the hospitalization rate of bronchiolitis was the highest in East ***,the number of hospitalizations from 2017 to 2020 showed a decreasing trend from that in ***,the peak hospitalizations for bronchiolitis occurred in *** rates in North China in autumn and winter were higher than those in South China,while hospitalization rates in South China were h

关键词： Bronchiolitis Children Clinical epidemiology disease burden Respiratory syncytial virus

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Epidemiological characteristics and disease burden of infectious mononucleosis in hospitalized children in China:A nationwide retrospective study

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Virologica Sinica 2022年第5期37卷 637-645页

作者： Mengjia Liu Xinyu Wang Linlin Zhang Guoshuang Feng Yueping Zeng Ran Wang Zhengde Xie Beijing Key Laboratory of Pediatric Respiratory Infectious diseases Key Laboratory of Major Diseases in ChildrenMinistry of EducationNational Clinical Research Center for Respiratory DiseasesLaboratory of Infection and VirologyBeijing Pediatric Research InstituteBeijing Children's HospitalCapital Medical UniversityNational Center for Children's HealthBeijing100045China Research Unit of Critical Infection in Children 2019RU016Chinese Academy of Medical SciencesBeijingChina Big Data Center Beijing Children's HospitalCapital Medical UniversityNational Center for Children's HealthBeijing100045China Medical Record Management Office Beijing Children's HospitalCapital Medical UniversityNational Center for Children's HealthBeijing100045China

Epstein-Barr virus(EBV)is very common,with the infection rate in adults over 90%*** mononucleosis(IM)is caused by primary infection with *** IM patients are generally considered to have a favorable prognosis,but a few patients will also develop *** with severe symptoms will require ***,the disease burden of children hospitalized with IM in China has been rarely *** this study,we included the Face sheets of discharge medical records from 27 member children's hospitals of Futang Research Center of Pediatric Development from Jan 1st,2016 to Dec 31st,2020,and medical information such as gender,age,region,time of admission,length of stay and expenditure were *** were 24,120 IM cases,which accounted for 0.42%(24,120/5,693,262)of all hospitalized cases during this *** ratio of male to female was 1.48:*** for IM in the 4-6 years age group was the highest among inpatients of all age *** numbers increased year by year between 2016 and 2020,and the monthly hospitalization was generally high from Jul to Sep but reduced from Jan to Feb per ***/pneumonia and hepatic dysfunction were two common complications in hospitalized IM *** median length of stay was 8 days,and the median cost of hospitalization was 970.59 US *** study will help understand the epidemiological characteristics and disease burden of hospitalized children with IM in China.

关键词： Epstein-Barr virus(EBV) Infectious mononucleosis(IM) Children Epidemiological characteristics disease burden

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Changing trends of disease burden of gastric cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions:Findings from Global burden of disease Study

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Chinese Journal of Cancer Research 2021年第1期33卷 11-26页

作者： Tongchao Zhang Hui Chen Xiaolin Yin Qiufeng He Jinyu Man Xiaorong Yang Ming Lu Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics School of Public HealthCheeloo College of MedicineShandong UniversityJinan 250012China Clinical Epidemiology Unit Qilu Hospital of Shandong UniversityJinan 250012China Clinical Research Center of Shandong University Jinan 250012China

Objective:China is one of the countries with the heaviest burden of gastric cancer(GC)in the *** the epidemiological trends and patterns of GC in China can contribute to formulating effective prevention ***:The data on incidence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs)of GC in China from1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global burden of disease Study(2019).The estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)was calculated to evaluate the temporal trends of disease burden of GC,and the package Nordpred in the R program was used to perform an age-period-cohort analysis to predict the numbers and rates of incidence and mortality in the next 25 ***:The number of incident cases of GC increased from 317.34 thousand in 1990 to 612.82 thousand in2019,while the age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)of GC decreased from 37.56 per 100,000 in 1990 to 30.64 per 100,000 in 2019,with an EAPC of-0.41[95%confidence interval(95%CI):-0.77,-0.06].Pronounced temporal trends in mortality and DALYs of GC were *** the next 25 years,the numbers of new GC cases and deaths are expected to increase to 738.79 thousand and 454.80 thousand,respectively,while the rates of incidence and deaths should steadily *** deaths and DALYs attributable to smoking were different for males and ***:In China,despite the fact that the rates of GC have decreased during the past three decades,the numbers of new GC cases and deaths increased,and will continue to increase in the next 25 *** strategies are needed to reduce the burden of GC,such as screening and early detection,novel treatments,and the prevention of risk factors.

关键词： Gastric cancer disease burden temporal trend risk factor prediction

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Impact of adalimumab on disease burden in moderate-to-severe ulcerative colitis patients: The one-year, real-world UCanADA study

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2022年第34期28卷 5058-5075页

作者： Talat Bessissow Geoffrey C Nguyen Osman Tarabain Laurent Peyrin-Biroulet Nathalie Foucault Kevin McHugh Joannie Ruel Department of Medicine McGill University Health CenterMontreal H3G 1A4QuebecCanada Mount Sinai Hospital Inflammatory Bowel disease Centre Toronto M5T 3L9OntarioCanada Dr.O.Tarabain Clinic Windsor N8W 1E6OntarioCanada Department of Gastroenterology University of LorraineCHRUNancyNancy F-54000France AbbVie Corporation Saint-Laurent H4S 1Z1QuebecCanada Department of Medicine Sherbrooke University Hospital CenterSherbrooke J1H 5N4QuebecCanada

BACKGROUND A gap remains in documenting the impact of anti-tumor necrosis factor therapy on disease burden in ulcerative colitis(UC)patients treated in a real-world *** use of patient-reported outcomes(PROs)has been discussed as a primary endpoint in the context of the FDA PRO Guidance,for labelling ***,the efficacy and safety of adalimumab have been demonstrated in pivotal trials;however,data are needed to understand how clinical results translate into improvements in key aspects of the daily lives of UC patients,such as symptoms,health-related quality of life(HRQoL),and *** To assess real-world effectiveness of adalimumab on PRO measures in patients with moderate-to-severe *** UCanADA was a single arm,prospective,1-year multicenter Canadian post-marketing observational study in which multiple PRO questionnaires were completed—with psychologic distress/depression symptoms as the primary endpoint—by patients with moderate-to-severe *** were performed during patients’routine care visit schedule,which was at the initiation of adalimumab(baseline),after induction(approximately 8 wk),and 52 wk after *** optional assessments between weeks 8 and 52 were collected at least once but no more than two times during this *** safety events and per-protocol adverse events were *** From 23 Canadian centres,100 patients were enrolled and 48 completed the *** with the Patient Health Questionnaire–9 items at week 52,61.5%(40/65)[95%confidence interval(CI):49.7%-73.4%]of the patients improved in psychologic distress/depression symptoms,which was slightly higher in completers[65.9%(29/44);95%CI:51.9%-79.9%].At week 52,clinical response and clinical remission were achieved respectively by 65.7%(44/73)and 47.8%(32/73)of the *** odds of improving depressive symptoms for those achieving a clinical remission at week 52 was 7.94 higher compared with those not achieving a clinic

关键词： disease burden Patient-reported outcome Depressive symptoms Ulcerative colitis Adalimumab Real-world data

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Global and Regional Trends and Projections of Infective Endocarditis-Associated disease burden and Attributable Risk Factors from 1990 to 2030

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Chinese Medical Sciences Journal 2022年第3期37卷 181-194,I0003页

作者： Lijin Lin Yemao Liu Juanjuan Qin Fang Lei Wenxin Wang Xuewei Huang Weifang Liu Xingyuan Zhang Zhigang She Peng Zhang Xiaojing Zhang Zhaoxia Jin Hongliang Li Department of Cardiology Renmin Hospital of Wuhan UniversityWuhan 430060China Department of Cardiovascular Huanggang Central HospitalHuanggangHubei Province438021 China Institute of Model Animal Wuhan UniversityWuhan 430071China Huanggang Institute of Translational Medicine HuanggangHubei Province438802 China School of Basic Medical Science Wuhan UniversityWuhan 430071China

Objective To forecast the future burden and its attributable risk factors of infective endocarditis(IE).Methods We analyzed the disease burden of IE and its risk factors from 1990 to 2019 using the Global burden of disease 2019 database and projected the disease burden from 2020 to 2030 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort *** By 2030,the incidence of IE will increase uncontrollably on a global scale,with developed countries having the largest number of cases and developing countries experiencing the fastest *** affected population will be predominantly males,but the gender gap will *** elderly in high-income countries will bear the greatest burden,with a gradual shift to middle-income *** incidence of IE in countries with middle/high-middle social-demographic indicators(SDI) will surpass that of high SDI *** China,the incidence rate and the number of IE will reach 18.07 per 100,000 and 451,596 in 2030,*** deaths and heart failure will continue to impose a significant burden on society,the burden on women will increase and surpass that on men,and the elderly in high-SDI countries will bear the heaviest *** systolic blood pressure has become the primary risk factor for IE-related *** This study provides comprehensive analyses of the disease burden and risk factors of IE worldwide over the next *** IE-associated incidence will increase in the future and the death and heart failure burden will not be appropriately ***,age,regional,and country heterogeneity should be taken seriously to facilitate in making effective strategies for lowering the IE disease burden.

关键词： infective endocarditis disease burden risk factors Bayesian age-period-cohort model projection

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Epidemiological and disease burden Profiles of Leukemias and Malignant Lymphomas: Overview and Trends in the Republic of Moldova and Worldwide

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International Journal of Clinical Medicine 2023年第2期14卷 79-95页

作者： Vasile Musteata Department of Hematology Institute of Oncology Chisinau Republic of Moldova Discipline of Hematology Nicolae Testemitanu State University of Medicine and Pharmacy Chisinau Republic of Moldova

Introduction: Hematological malignancies (HM) are relatively frequent nosological entities within the structure of morbidity by malignant tumors, exhibiting a severe evolution, restrained prognosis and negative socio-economic impact in the advanced stages and phases. Objective: The objective of the study was to identify the epidemiological patterns, and to evaluate the epidemiological trends and disease burden issues of HM in the Republic of Moldova and worldwide. Materials and Methods: The following research methods were used: epidemiological, descriptive statistics, clinico-analytic. The diagnosis was proved in all cases by histopathological, cytological, cytogenetic, molecular and immunophenotyping examinations. The qualitative type researches were performed and enriched by the narrative synthesis of the data. From the specialized international bibliographic sources and official statistics concerning HM. The narrative review of the reference sources was fulfilled in the form of a synthesis. Results: The number of newly diagnosed and followed-up patients with HM at the Institute of Oncology in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 amounted respectively to 725, 802, 613, 628, 536 and 528, the incidence (new cases per 100,000 population) being 17.6, 19.5, 14.9, 17.7, 15.1 and 20.3. In 2021 HM constituted 6.2% of all newly-diagnosed cases with malignant tumors in the Republic of Moldova. In the same year Hodgkin lymphoma was diagnosed in 10.04% of cases, non-Hodgkin’s lymphomas—in 31.63%, multiple myeloma and plasma cells neoplasms—in 7.77%, lymphoid leukemias—in 17.42%, myeloid leukemias—in 12.31%, monocytic leukemias—in 0.95%, and other leukemias—in 16.29%. In 2019 the male rate was 51.5%, and the female rate—48.5%. Within 2 years males were 266 (50.4%), females—262 (49.6%). The age of 50 - 79 years prevailed in both genders (males—65%, females—72.5%). The children constituted 4.0% of the newly diagnosed cases, 4.8% of those under the follow-up at the end of the ye

关键词： Hematological Malignancies Epidemiological Patterns Incidence Mortality Disability-Adjusted Life-Years disease burden Management

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burden of non-communicable diseases in China and its provinces, 1990–2021: Results from the Global burden of disease Study 2021

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中华医学杂志(英文版) 2024年第19期137卷 2024 Aug 28页

作者： Liu Hanxiao Yin Peng Qi Jinlei Zhou Maigeng Department of Epidemiology School of Public Health Cheeloo College of Medicine Shandong University Jinan Shandong China National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable disease Control and Prevention Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing China

Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the primary causes of disability and death. The aim of this study is to analyze the disease burden of NCDs in China from 1990 to ***: This study used data on NCDs in China and its provinces from the Global burden of diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. The study analyzed the disease burden of NCDs in 2021 and its changes from 1990 to 2021 using indicators including deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).Results: Between 1990 and 2021, the NCD burden in China exhibited an upward trend. In 2021, China had 10.6 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 9.0–12.2) million deaths and 349.3 (95% UI: 301.5–401.2) million DALYs due to NCDs, accounting for 91.0% (95% UI: 90.4–91.7%) of all deaths and 86.7% (95% UI: 86.0–87.4%) of all DALYs. NCDs caused a lower disease burden in females than in males. Cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms were the main NCD level 2 causes of deaths and DALYs, resulting in 5.1 (95% UI: 4.3–5.9) and 2.8 (95% UI: 2.3–3.4) million deaths and 100.2 (95% UI: 84.6–116.6) million and 71.2 (95% UI: 59.3–85.2) million DALYs in 2021, respectively. Chronic respiratory diseases were the third leading cause of NCD deaths, while musculoskeletal disorders were the third leading cause of NCD DALYs. Qinghai, Xizang, and Heilongjiang had the highest age-standardized mortality rates and age-standardized DALY rates (per 100,000) for NCDs, while Hong Kong Special Administration Region (SAR), Macao SAR, and Shanghai recorded the lowest age-standardized mortality rates and age-standardized DALY ***: NCDs caused a high disease burden in China and exhibited heterogeneity across sexes and provinces. China needs to focus on addressing key NCDs and implement intervention measures tailored to the disease distribution characteristics to reduce the NCD burden.

关键词： Non-communicable diseases disease burden Deaths Disability-adjusted life years Cardiovascular disease Neoplasms Chronic respiratory disease Musculoskeletal disorders

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Trend Analysis of the burden of Hypertensive Heart disease in China from 1990 to 2021

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Journal of Clinical and Nursing Research 2024年第9期8卷 240-248页

作者： Yanli Yang Shiliang Xi Ying Li The First Clinical Medical College of Three Gorges University Yichang 443003Hubei ProvinceChina Department of Electrocardiogram(ECG)Diagnostic Yichang Central People’s HospitalYichang 443003Hubei Province China Department of Pain Yichang Central People’s HospitalYichang 443003Hubei ProvinceChina

Objective:To quantitatively analyze the burden of hypertensive heart disease(HHD)in China and provide a scientific basis for prevention and control ***:Data from the Global burden of disease 2021 database were used to assess the disease burden,deaths,years lived with disability(YLDs),and risk factors for HHD in the Chinese population from 1990 to ***:From 1990 to 2021,HHD cases in China increased from 1.5 million to 3.9 million,with an average annual growth rate of 2.83%.Prevalence rose from 127.76/100,000 to 259.00/100,000,while age-standardized prevalence decreased by 0.68%*** deaths increased from 232,478 to 320,247,with a mortality rate rise from 19.76/100,000 to 22.56/100,000,though age-standardized mortality decreased by 2.68%*** rose from 124,386 to 301,426,with the rate increasing by 2.20%annually,while age-standardized YLDs decreased by 0.67%*** sodium intake and low fruit consumption were key risk factors for HHD *** related to low vegetable intake decreased until 2005 and then rose,while deaths from lead exposure showed a similar ***:HHD cases and prevalence increased significantly,but age-standardized prevalence and mortality rates declined,reflecting the impact of an aging population and improved health *** rise in YLDs highlights the long-term impact on patients’quality of *** risk factors included high sodium intake and low fruit consumption,emphasizing the importance of dietary improvements in HHD *** remains a significant public health challenge in China,requiring continuous research and targeted prevention strategies.

关键词： Hypertensive heart disease disease burden Attribution risk factors China

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