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discount rate of China’s New Energy Power Industry

Energy Engineering 2022年第1期119卷 315-329页

作者： Yafei Rong Xudong Sun School of Management China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing)Beijing100083China State Key Laboratory of Coal Resources and Safe Mining China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing)Beijing100083China

Under the dual pressures of energy crisis and environmental pollution,China’s new energy power industry has become a focal point for environmental management and requires greater investment.In this context,as a significant input of investment projects,discount rate requires a well-calibrated evaluation because new energy power investment projects are highly capital intensive.The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the discount rate of China’s new energy power industry.First,we use Moving Average to correct the parameters of capital asset pricing model(CAPM)and weighted average cost of capital,which extends the literature on the avoidance of CAPM noise information problem.Second,we study the industry-level annual discount rates of mainly China’s new energy power industries,including hydropower,nuclear power,wind power,and photovoltaic power industries for the period of 2014-2019.The results show that discount rates in China’s new energy power industries evolved differently between the years of 2014-2019 with average annual discount rates being 7.56%,5.83%,5.60%,and 8.64%,for the hydropower,nuclear power,wind power,and photovoltaic power industries,respectively.In 2019,the four annual discount rates were highest for the photovoltaic power industry(8.66%),followed by hydropower(7.17%),wind power(5.72%),and nuclear power industry(5.26%).Forecasting to 2020 from the 2019 evaluation base period,the discount rates are 6.37%,5.00%,6.57%,and 9.05%for the photovoltaic power,hydropower,wind power,and nuclear power industries,respectively.Under the different capital structures,their forecasts for the photovoltaic power,hydropower,wind power,and nuclear power industries in 2020 are,respectively,within[4.35%,9.24%],[3.92%,7.10%],[4.58%,10.40%],[5.46%,14.81%].We also discussed more details on capital structure and forecast period of discount rates for China’s new energy power industries.Our analysis shows that it is necessary to establish a new energy power industry database and steadily promote the implementation of po

关键词： discount rate China’s new energy power industry moving average capital asset price model weighted average cost of capital

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Choice of discount rate in reinforcement learning with long-delay rewards

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Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics 2022年第2期33卷 381-392页

作者： LIN Xiangyang XING Qinghua LIU Fuxian Department of Air Defense and Anti-Missile Air Force Engineering UniversityXi’an 710051China

In the world, most of the successes are results of longterm efforts. The reward of success is extremely high, but before that, a long-term investment process is required. People who are “myopic” only value short-term rewards and are unwilling to make early-stage investments, so they hardly get the ultimate success and the corresponding high rewards. Similarly, for a reinforcement learning(RL) model with long-delay rewards, the discount rate determines the strength of agent’s “farsightedness”.In order to enable the trained agent to make a chain of correct choices and succeed finally, the feasible region of the discount rate is obtained through mathematical derivation in this paper firstly. It satisfies the “farsightedness” requirement of agent. Afterwards, in order to avoid the complicated problem of solving implicit equations in the process of choosing feasible solutions,a simple method is explored and verified by theoreti cal demonstration and mathematical experiments. Then, a series of RL experiments are designed and implemented to verify the validity of theory. Finally, the model is extended from the finite process to the infinite process. The validity of the extended model is verified by theories and experiments. The whole research not only reveals the significance of the discount rate, but also provides a theoretical basis as well as a practical method for the choice of discount rate in future researches.

关键词： reinforcement learning(RL) discount rate longdelay reward Q-learning treasure-detecting model feasible solution

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Gender difference in network relationship between inter-temporal decisions and prefrontal activation levels in internet gaming disorder

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Psychoradiology 2023年第1期3卷 254-265页

作者： Hui Zheng Weiran Zhou Min Wang Hao-hao Dong Chunlei Lu Jia-lin Zhang Xue-feng Ma Yanbo Hu Guang-Heng Dong Department of Psychology Yunnan Normal UniversityKunmingYunnan Province 650500China Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders Brain Health InstituteNational Center for Mental DisordersShanghai Mental Health CenterShanghaijiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghai 200030China Center for Cognition and Brain Disorders The Affliated Hospital of Hangzhou Normal UniversityHangzhouZhejiang Province 11121 China School of Humanities and Social Science University of Science and Technology of ChinaHefei 230022PR.China Department of Psychology Nanjing UniversityNanjingJiangsu Province 210008China Department of Psychology Zhejiang Normal UniversityJinhuaZhejiang Province 321004China Institute of Developmental Psychology Beijing Normnal UniversityBeijing 100875China State Key Laboratory of Cognitive Neuroscience and Learning and IDG/McGovern Institute for Brain Research Beijing 100875China

Background:Impulsivity and decision-making are key factors in addiction.However,little is known about how gender and time sensitivity affect impulsivity in internet gaming disorder(IGD).Objective:To investigate the gender difference of impulsive decision-making and relevant brain responses in IGD.Methods:We conducted a functional magnetic resonance imaging(fMRI)study with 123 participants,including 59 IGD individuals(26 females)and 64 matched recreational game users(RGUs,23 females).Participants performed a delay-discounting task during fMRI scanning.We examined gender-by-group effects on behavioral and neural measures to explore the preference for immediate over delayed rewards and the associated brain activity.We also investigated the network correlations between addiction severity and behavioral and neural measures,and analyzed the mediating role of brain activity in the link between delay discounting parameters and IGD severity.Results:We found significant gender-by-group interactions.The imaging results revealed gender-by-group interactions in the dor-solateral prefrontal cortex,medial frontal gyrus,and inferior frontal gyrus(IFG).Post hoc analysis indicated that,for females,RGUs showed higher activity than IGD individuals in these brain regions,while for males IGD individuals exhibited higher activity than RGUs.The activation in the left IFG mediated the relation between Internet Addiction Test score and discount rate in females.In males,the activation in the right dlPFC mediated the relation between IAT score and time sensitivity.Discussion:Our findings imply that male IGD participants demonstrate impaired intertemporal decisions associated with neural dysfunction.Influencing factors for impulsive decision-making in IGD diverge between males(time sensitivity)and females(discount rate).These findings augment our comprehension of the neural underpinnings of gender differences in IGD and bear significant implications for devising effective intervention strategies for treating people with IGD.

关键词： internet gaming disorder delay discounting discount rate time sensitivity

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Estimation of lung cancer burden in Australia,the Philippines,and Singapore:an evaluation of disability adjusted life years

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Cancer Biology & Medicine 2017年第1期14卷 74-82页

作者： Suman Morampudi Neha Das Arun Gowda Anand Patil Phamax Analytic Resources Pvt.Ltd. Bengaluru 560095India

Objective: Lung cancer is one of the leading cancers and major causes of cancer mortality worldwide. The economic burden associated with the high mortality of lung cancer is high, which accounts for nearly $180 billion on a global scale in 2008. This paper aims to understand the economic burden of lung cancer in terms of disability adjusted life years(DALY) in Australia, the Philippines, and Singapore.Methods: The years of life lost(YLL) and years lost due to disability(YLD) were calculated using the formula developed by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability for diseases, injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020. The same formula is represented in the Global Burden of Disease template provided by the World Health Organization. Appropriate assumptions were made when data were unavailable and projections were performed using regression analysis to obtain data for 2015.Results: The total DALYs due to lung cancer in Australia, the Philippines, and Singapore were 91,695, 38,584, and 12,435,respectively, and the corresponding DALY rates per a population of 1,000 were 4.0, 0.4, and 2.2, respectively, with a discount rate of 3%. When researchers calculated DALYs without the discount rate, the burden of disease increased substantially; the DALYs were 117,438 in Australia, 50,977 in the Philippines, and 16,379 in Singapore. Overall, YLL or premature death accounted for more than 95% of DALYs in these countries.Conclusions: Strategies for prevention, early diagnosis, and prompt treatment must be devised for diseases where the major burden is due to mortality.

关键词： Lung cancer DALY YLD YLL burden of disease DALY rate discount rate

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Research on Sales Strategy Based on Supermarket Pipeline Data

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Journal of Data Analysis and Information Processing 2020年第3期8卷 99-109页

作者： Shaoyong Hong Chun Yang Hongwei Wen Huashang College Guangdong University of Finance & Economics Guangzhou China

“Low profit and high sales” is a strategy to increase sales volume by reducing the profit of unit goods, so that businesses can gain more profits. For flexible goods, price reduction can increase the total revenue, but when the goods are lack of flexibility, price reduction will reduce the total revenue. In this paper, according to the sales data provided by a supermarket, we preprocess the data, establish appropriate indicators to measure the daily discount strength of the mall, and establish a mathematical model between the discount strength, sales and profit margin. Through these models, we found that meager profits do bring up sales, but too low discounts can also hurt total profits. In addition, when shopping malls implement discount promotions, they will also bring some negative effects, and we give some suggestions for this.

关键词： Low Profit and High Sales Profit Margin discount rate Price Elasticity of Demand

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影响古村落“煤转旅”公共治理有效性的因素分析

旅游管理

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旅游管理 2016年第6期 41-49页

作者：高翠翠刘改芳

随着资源型地区诅咒效应的凸显，古村落分布较为集中的山西省晋城市成为“以煤促旅”转型成效较为显著的地区。借鉴埃莉诺·奥斯特罗姆公共资源管理制度变迁的分析框架，在两次实地调研的基础上对晋城市郭峪村和皇城村“煤转旅”的发展... 详细信息

随着资源型地区诅咒效应的凸显，古村落分布较为集中的山西省晋城市成为“以煤促旅”转型成效较为显著的地区。借鉴埃莉诺·奥斯特罗姆公共资源管理制度变迁的分析框架，在两次实地调研的基础上对晋城市郭峪村和皇城村“煤转旅”的发展历程进行具象描述，并展开比较研究。同时从学理上对影响古村落“煤转旅”公共治理有效性的因素展开分析，借以丰富中国旅游产业发展中典型区域的研究成果。研究表明，基础产业的资金支持、改变规则的自主权利、体制精英的权威树立以及居民对贴现率的不同要求是造成古村落转型结果大相径庭的原因，也是影响古村落“煤转旅”公共治理有效性的因素。基础产业转型旅游产业的过程中，只有提供适应旅游产业发展的合理的要素配置才能实现对旅游资源的有效治理。

关键词：古村落公共治理资金自主权利体制精英贴现率 public governance finance autonomous right system elite discount rate

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海洋生态价值核算与应用初探

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统计与精算 2021年第2期

作者：王涛杨璐李琳琳王悦化蓉

开展海洋生态系统价值核算研究对于构建基于生态系统的海洋经济管理具有重要的理论意义和现实需求。以海洋生态价值核算为研究切入点，以完善海洋经济核算体系为目标，梳理出海洋生态系统核算的流程及内容。在研究路径上，首先分别从生... 详细信息

开展海洋生态系统价值核算研究对于构建基于生态系统的海洋经济管理具有重要的理论意义和现实需求。以海洋生态价值核算为研究切入点，以完善海洋经济核算体系为目标，梳理出海洋生态系统核算的流程及内容。在研究路径上，首先分别从生态系统流量和存量核算两个层面设计海洋生态服务和海洋生态资产价值核算框架，然后探索出基于供给使用表和资产负债表为手段的海洋生态系统与经济及人类活动的融合衔接，最终从生态服务权衡、价格估算、贴现率确定及整合列报四个方面提出下一步研究难点及探索方向。

关键词：海洋生态服务海洋生态资产生态经济贴现　　marine ecosystem services marine ecosystem assets ecological economy discount rate

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