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Human influence on the duration of extreme temperature events in Asia's hotspot regions

Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 312-326页

作者： Zi-Meng WANG Hong-Yun MA Wei LI Hai-Shan CHEN Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Observations and models indicate that human activities exert a considerable impact on the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events,which are associated with global ***,changes in the duration of extreme temperature events and their association with human influence have not been considered in most ***,the possible relationship between the observed changes in the warm and cold spell duration(WSDI and CSDI)in hotspot regions during 1960-2014 and human influence was investigated based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis version 1 and Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)*** projection based on these attribution results was also *** optimal fingerprinting technique was used to compare observed changes in WSDI and CSDI to simulated changes averaged across eight CMIP6 *** show that anthropogenic(ANT)forcing contributed to the observed increase in WSDI in the three hotspot regions(West Asia,South Asia and Southeast Asia),with the majority of the changes being attributed to greenhouse gas ***,a generally weak ANT signal can be observed in the decreasing trend of CSDI and can be detected in South and Southeast *** influence of aerosol forcing remains undetected in either WSDI or CSDI,which differs from the results for frequency and intensity of extreme *** attribution results revealed that the constrained projection of WSDI is lower than the raw projection for 2015-2100 in West Asia and Southeast ***,no differences in future CSDI changes are found in Southeast Asia between the constrained and raw projections.

关键词： Extreme temperature events Duration detection attribution Constraint projection Hotspot regions

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