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Two-Stage Production Planning Under Stochastic demand:Case Study of Fertilizer Manufacturing

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Computers, Materials & Continua 2022年第1期70卷 1195-1207页

作者： Chia-Nan Wang Shao-Dong Syu Chien-Chang Chou Viet Tinh Nguyen Dang Van Thuy Cuc Department of Industrial Engineering and Management National Kaohsiung University of Science and TechnologyKaohsiung80778Taiwan Sunline NP Telecommunications Co.Ltd Kaohsiung80778Taiwan Department of Shipping Technology National Kaohsiung University of Science and TechnologyKaohsiung80778Taiwan Faculty of Commerce Van Lang UniversityHo Chi Minh City70000Vietnam Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management International UniversityHo Chi Minh City70000Vietnam

Agriculture is a key facilitator of economic prosperity and nourishes the huge global population.To achieve sustainable agriculture,several factors should be considered,such as increasing nutrient and water efficiency and/or improving soil health and quality.Using fertilizer is one of the fastest and easiest ways to improve the quality of nutrients inland and increase the effectiveness of crop yields.Fertilizer supplies most of the necessary nutrients for plants,and it is estimated that at least 30%-50%of crop yields is attributable to commercial fertilizer nutrient inputs.Fertilizer is always a major concern in achieving sustainable and efficient agriculture.Applying reasonable and customized fertilizerswill require a significant increase in the number of formulae,involving increasing costs and the accurate forecasting of the right time to apply the suitable formulae.An alternative solution is given by two-stage production planning under stochastic demand,which divides a planning schedule into two stages.The primary stage has non-existing demand information,the inputs of which are the proportion of raw materials needed for producing fertilizer products,the cost for purchasing materials,and the production cost.The total quantity of purchased material and produced products to be used in the blending process must be defined to meet as small as possible a paid cost.At the second stage,demand appears under multiple scenarios and their respective possibilities.This stage will provide a solution for each occurring scenario to achieve the best profit.The two-stage approach is presented in this paper,the mathematical model of which is based on linear integer programming.Considering the diversity of fertilizer types,themathematicalmodel can advise manufacturers about which products will generate as much as profit as possible.Specifically,two objectives are taken into account.First,the paper’s thesis focuses on minimizing overall system costs,e.g.,including inventory cost,purchasing cost,unit cost,and ordering cost at Stag

关键词： Two-stage stochastic programming demand uncertainty planning blending fertilizer

Stackelberg game model of a supply chain under lead-time-dependent demand uncertainty

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Stackelberg game model of a supply chain under lead-time-dep...

STOCHASTIC COMPARISONS IN A PRICE-QUANTITY SETTING FIRM WITH UNCERTAIN demand AND EMERGENCY PROCUREMENT

2009中国控制与决策会议

作者： Jiao JIN~*,Tiao-jun XIAO,Dong FAN School of Management Science and Engineering,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China

＜正＞This paper develops a Stackelberg game theoretic model of a supply chain consisting of one manufacturer and one retailer to study pricing and production planning about lead-time and quantity.We assume that the retailer faces an uncertain demand where the uncertainty is related to lead-time.We investigate how uncertainty,capacity and salvage value influence the equilibrium outcome.We find that manufacturer’s maximum output within the lead-time is always equal to the retailer’s order quantity and the manufacturer can adjust the lead-time because the retailer can influence the demand by adjusting retail price.When the demand uncertainty is sufficiently small,the manufacturer shares most of the risk from demand uncertainty;otherwise,the retailer has to share part of the risk.

关键词： demand uncertainty pricing lead-time supply chain management game theory

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2013年第4期22卷 401-420页

作者： Minghui XU Xiaolin XU Yi-hui ZHOU School of Economics and Management Wuhan University School of Business Nanjing University Department of Biostatistics University of North Carolina

We consider a newsvendor problem with price-dependent demand, in either additive or multiplicative format. The newsvendor has two modes of purchasing： regular ordering at the beginning of the selling season and emergency ordering （if the realized demand exceeds the initial order quantity） at the end of the selling season. By stochastic comparisons, we systematically investigate the effects of demand magnitude and demand randomness on pricing and ordering quantity decisions as well as expected profit of the newsvendor, under both usual stochastic order （first order stochastic dominance） and convex order （less variable）. Our key findings include：（i） in contrary to the case where price is exogenous, a stochastically larger demand shock may even lead to a lower order quantity; （ii） a stochastically larger demand shock leads to a higher price for the additive demand case, but may lead to a lower price for the multiplicative demand case; （iii） a stochastically larger demand shock leads to a higher expected profit for both demand models; （iv） in general, a less variable demand leads to a higher expected profit for both demand models; and furthermore, a less variable demand shock has no effect on price for the additive demand model, but leads to a higher price for the multiplicative demand model. The implications of all these findings for pricing and order quantity are discussed in detail.

关键词： Price-dependent newsvendor stochastic comparison demand uncertainty pricing emergency supply option

Major government customer and management earnings forecasts

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Frontiers of Business Research in China 2020年第3期14卷 350-369页

作者： Agnes C.S.Cheng Wenli Huang Shaojun Zhang School of Accounting and Finance Faculty of BusinessThe Hong Kong Polytechnic UniversityHung HomKowloonHong KongChina

This paper examines whether customer base composition in the US,that is,whether a firm's major customers are government entities or publicly traded companies,affects the properties of its management earnings forecasts(MEFs).Using a sample of 1,168 MEFs from 1998 to 2014,we find that firms whose major customers are government entities(i.e.,govemment suppliers)issue more precise and more accurate MEFs than firms whose major customers are public companies(i.e.,corporate suppliers).Moreover,when managers disclose negative information to the market,earnings forecasts issued by government suppliers have greater price impact than those issued by corporate suppliers.Collectively,our empirical results suggest that having major govemment customers has a positive impact on the quality of MEFs.

关键词： Customer-supplier relationship demand uncertainty Government supplier Information spillover Management earnings forecasts(MEFs)

THE demand DISRUPTION MANAGEMENT PROBLEM FOR A SUPPLY CHAIN SYSTEM WITH NONLINEAR demand FUNCTIONS

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Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2003年第1期12卷 82-97页

作者： MinghuiXU XiangtongQI GangYU HanqinZHANG ChengxiuGAO SchoolofMathematicsandStatistics WuhanUniversityWuha430072HubeiP.R.China DepartmentofManagementScienceandInformationSystems TheUniversityofTexasAustinTexas78712U.S.A AcademyofMathematicsandSystemSciences TheChineseAcademyofSciencesBeijing100080P.R.China

This paper addresses the problem of handling the uncertainty of demand in a one-supplier-one-retailer supply chain system. demand variation often makes the real production different from what is originally planned, causing a deviation cost from the production plan. Assume the market demand is sensitive to the retail price in a nonlinear form, we show how to effectively handle the demand uncertainty in a supply chain, both for the case of centralized-decision-making system and the case of decentralized-decision-making system with perfect coordination.

关键词： Supply chain management disruption management demand uncertainty

GROUP-BUYING ONLINE AUCTION AND OPTIMAL INVENTORY POLICY IN UNCERTAIN MARKET

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Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2004年第2期13卷 202-218页

作者： JianCHEN YunhuiLIU XipingSONG SchoolofEconomicsandManagementTsinghuaUniversity Beijing100084P.R.China DepartmentofSystemEngineeringandEngineeringManagementTheChineseUniversityofHongKong ShatinNTHongKongP.RChina

In this paper we consider a group-buying online auction (GBA) model for a monopolistic manufacturer selling novel products in the uncertain market. Firstly, we introduce the bidder's dominant strategy, after which we optimize the GBA price curve and the production volume together. Finally, we compare the GBA with the traditional posted pricing mechanism and find that the GBA is highly probable to be advantageous over the posted pricing mechanism in some appropriate market environments.

关键词： Group-buying auction newsvendor model demand uncertainty

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到岸价格模式生鲜供应链需求信息共享与激励

Comparison of Group-Buying Online Auction and Posted Pricing Mechanism in an Uncertain Market

管理科学 2023年第9期

作者：但斌陈振江刘墨林马崧萱

针对到岸价格商务模式生鲜供应链面临的市场需求风险，考虑销售商拥有需求预测信息并可决策是否向供应商共享，构建动态博弈模型分析了该供应链中的信息共享策略，设计了相应的需求信息共享激励契约。研究表明：需求信息共享利于供应商... 详细信息

针对到岸价格商务模式生鲜供应链面临的市场需求风险，考虑销售商拥有需求预测信息并可决策是否向供应商共享，构建动态博弈模型分析了该供应链中的信息共享策略，设计了相应的需求信息共享激励契约。研究表明：需求信息共享利于供应商根据市场需求波动合理调整保鲜努力和产品供应量，缓解供应商和销售商面临的产品滞销与缺货风险；供应商冒险策略下，只有当新鲜度弹性较高时销售商才愿意共享需求信息，而在供应商保守策略下，当新鲜度弹性较低时，若市场波动不太低或信息精度较高，销售商也会主动进行信息共享；一定条件下，需求信息共享能够提高供应链整体绩效，通过转移支付契约能够激励销售商信息共享，实现供应链各成员利润的帕累托改善。

关键词：生鲜供应链到岸价格模式需求不确定信息共享激励契约　　fresh produce supply chain cost insurance and freight business model demand uncertainty information sharing incentive contract

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Journal of Electronic Science and Technology of China 2004年第3期2卷 1-5页

作者： CHEN Jian, LIU Yunhui, SONG Xiping (School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 China Department of System Engineering and Engineering Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong Shatin NT Hong Kong China) School of Economics and Management Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 China Department of System Engineering and Engineering Management The Chinese University of Hong Kong Shatin NT Hong Kong China

demand uncertainty is a key factor for the seller's decision making, especially in the e-business environment, for the website to sell products through the online auction. In this paper, two kinds of demand uncertainties are considered: the consumer regime uncertainty and the inherent randomness of the market environment. Then, how to use a novel business model and group-buying auction (GBA) is analyzed in such a market environment. Based on the comparison of the GBA and the posted price mechanism, some conditions that favor the GBA are provided.

关键词： group-buying auction demand uncertainty posted pricing mechanism

Genetic algorithms for Uncertain Pricing-Inventory Models with Multiple Interdependent Products

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Genetic algorithms for Uncertain Pricing-Inventory Models wi...