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Effect of introducing weather parameters on the accuracy of milk production forecast models

Information Processing in Agriculture 2020年第1期7卷 120-138页

作者： Fan Zhang John Upton Laurence Shalloo Philip Shine Michael D.Murphy Department of Process Energy and Transport EngineeringCork Institute of TechnologyCo.CorkIreland Animal and Grassland Research Innovation Centre Teagasc MooreparkCo.CorkIreland

The objective of this study was to analyze the effect of adding meteorological data to the training process of two milk production forecast *** two models chosen were the nonlinear auto-regressive model with exogenous input(NARX)and the multiple linear regression(MLR)*** accuracy of these models were assessed using seven different combinations of precipitation,sunshine hours and soil temperature as additional model training *** data(daily milk yield and days in milk)from 39 pasture-based Holstein-Friesian Irish dairy cows were selected to compare to the model outputs from a central *** models were trained using historical milk production data from three lactation cycles and were employed to predict the total daily milk yield of a fourth lactation cycle for each individual cow over short(10-day),medium(30-day)and long-term(305-day)forecast *** NARX model was found to provide a greater prediction accuracy when compared to the MLR model when predicting annual individual cow milk yield(kg),with R2 values greater than 0.7 for 95.5%and 14.7%of total predictions,*** results showed that the introduction of sunshine hours,precipitation and soil temperature data improved the prediction accuracy of individual cow milk prediction for the NARX model in the short,medium and long-term forecast *** hours was shown to have the largest impact on milk production with an improvement of forecast accuracy observed in 60%and 70%of all predictions(for all 39 test cows from both groups).However,the overall improvement in accuracy was small with a maximum forecast error reduction of 4.3%.Thus,the utilization of meteorological parameters in milk production forecasting did not have a substantial impact on forecast accuracy.

关键词： Milk production forecasting dairy modelling Model optimization Meteorological data

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