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Climate change impact and adaptation on wheat yield, water use and water use efficiency at North Nile Delta

Frontiers of Earth Science 2020年第3期14卷 522-536页

作者： Marwa Gamal Mohamed Ali Mahmoud Mohamed Ibrahim Ahmed El Baroudy Michael Fullen El-Said Hamad Omar Zheli Ding Ahmed Mohammed Saad Kheir Soil and Water Department Faculty of AgricultureTanta UniversityTanta33516Egypt Soils Water and Environment Research InstituteAgricultural Research CenterGiza12411Egypt Faculty of Science and Engineering The University of WolverhamptonWolverhamptonWV11LYUK Haikou Experimental Station Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences(CATAS)Haikou570000China

Investigation of climate change impacts on food security has become a global hot *** so,efforts to mitigate these issues in arid regions have been ***,in this paper,further research is discussed based on data obtained from various crop and climate *** dssatcrop models(CMs)(CERESWheat and N-Wheat)were calibrated with two wheat cultivars(Gemiza9 and Misr1).A baseline simulation(1981-2010)was compared with different scenarios of simulations using three Global Climate models(GCMs)for the 2030s,2050s and *** impacts of climate change were assessed using the GCMs and CMs under the high emission Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP8.5).Results predicted decreased wheat grain yields by a mean of 8.7%,11.4%and 13.2%in the 2030s,2050s and 2080s,respectively,relative to the baseline *** impacts of climatic change are probable,despite some uncertainties within the GCMs(i.e.,2.1%,5.0%and 8.0%)and CMs(i.e.,2.2%,6.0%and 9.2%).Changing the planting date with a scenario of plus or minus 5 or 10 days from the common practice was assessed as a potentially effective adaptation option,which may partially offset the negative impacts of climate *** the sowing date by 10 days(from 20 November to 30 November)proved the optimum scenario and decreased further reduction in wheat yields resulting from climate change to 5.2%,6.8%and 8.5%in the 2030s,2050s and 2080s,respectively,compared with the 20 November *** planting 5-days earlier scenario showed a decreased impact on climate change ***,the 10-days early planting scenario increased yield reduction under projected climate *** cultivar Misr1 was more resistant to rising temperature than *** the negative impacts of projected climate change on wheat production,water use efficiency would slightly *** ensemble of multi-model estimated impacts and adaptation uncertainties of climate change can assist decision-makers in planning clima

关键词： dssat models scenarios adaptation water use efficiency climate change

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