检索结果-南通市图书馆

Experiments with the Improved Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation over South China

引用

Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2022年第2期28卷 139-153页

作者： MA Yun-qi REN Fu-min JIA Li DING Chen-chen State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081 China

In recent work,three physical factors of the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation(dsaef_ltp model)have been introduced,namely,tropical cyclone(TC)track,TC landfall season,and TC *** the present study,we set out to test the forecasting performance of the improved model with new similarity regions and ensemble forecast schemes *** experiments associated with the prediction of accumulated precipitation were conducted based on 47 landfalling TCs that occurred over South China during *** first experiment was designed as the dsaef_ltp model with TC track,TC landfall season,and intensity(dsaef_ltp-1).The other three experiments were based on the first experiment,but with new ensemble forecast schemes added(dsaef_ltp-2),new similarity regions added(dsaef_ltp-3),and both added(dsaef_ltp-4),*** showed that,after new similarity regions added into the model(dsaef_ltp-3),the forecasting performance of the dsaef_ltp model for heavy rainfall(accumulated precipitation≥250 mm and≥100 mm)improved,and the sum of the threat score(TS250+TS100)increased by 4.44%.Although the forecasting performance of dsaef_ltp-2 was the same as that of dsaef_ltp-1,the forecasting performance was significantly improved and better than that of dsaef_ltp-3 when the new ensemble schemes and similarity regions were added simultaneously(dsaef_ltp-4),with the TS increasing by 25.36%.Moreover,the forecasting performance of the four experiments was compared with four operational numerical weather prediction models,and the comparison indicated that the dsaef_ltp model showed advantages in predicting heavy ***,some issues associated with the experimental results and future improvements of the dsaef_ltp model were discussed.

关键词： landfalling tropical cyclone heavy rainfall forecast dsaef_ltp model forecasting performance South China

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

欢迎您,

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：

通借通还

欢迎您,

建议与咨询 留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案： 新增检索档案 确定 取消

请选择收藏分类： 新增自定义分类 确定 取消

通借通还

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：