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Observation-Oriented Causal Discovery for cultivation abandonment of Rice Terraces: Focusing on an Effect of Cultural Endemism on Decision-Making in Toraja, Indonesia

引用

Agricultural Sciences 2016年第2期7卷 100-113页

作者： Ayako Oide Osamu Kozan Tomoko Doko Wenbo Chen Center for Southeast Asian Studies Kyoto University Kyoto Japan Graduate School of Asian and African Area Studies Kyoto University Kyoto Japan Nature & Science Consulting Co. Ltd. Yokohama Japan Keio Research Institute at SFC Keio University Fujisawa Japan

Previous discussion about the factors of the expanding trend of abandoned cultivation had focused only on universal factors and lacked evaluation of the regionality of the phenomenon. This paper demonstrated the Toraja’s regional characteristics and the influence of cultural endemism on decision-making about abandoning cultivation by an observation-oriented approach. Based on a causal framework constructed by field observation and geospatial data generation, an adjustment for overt covariates using the multivariate logistic regression model to draw the causal effect from hidden covariates was examined in two rice terraces with different water systems, i.e. irrigated field and rain-fed field. The result of sub-group analysis revealed that decisions about abandoning cultivation in Toraja were greatly associated with disadvantageous factors for intensive farming, i.e. “number of adjacent fields” and “soil erosion” rather than advantageous factors, i.e. “area of field” and “distance to roads”. Moreover, the result of interaction analysis which controlled the effect of topography revealed the powerful effect of particular decision factors only in rain-fed rice terrace: the “distance to roads” factor’s fairly negative contribution on abandoning cultivation (Odds ratio = 9.94E - 01, P value = 2.03E - 11), as well as the “number of adjacent field” factor’s positive contribution on abandoning cultivation (Odds ratio = 1.13E+00, P value = 3.65E - 04). Given the evidence from the explanation of these results by customary laws and land inheritance system for each site, therefore, it could be concluded that the screening and detection of cultural endemism’s influence was achieved using the algorithm this paper proposes.

关键词： cultivation abandonment Decision-Making Rice Terrace Observation-Oriented Multivariate Logistic Regression Sub-Group Interaction InSAR Soil Erosion GIS

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