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Transmission risk of Oropouche fever across the Americas

Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2023年第3期12卷 90-90页

作者： Daniel Romero-Alvarez Luis E.Escobar Albert J.Auguste Sara Y.Del Valle Carrie A.Manore Biodiversity Institute and Department of Ecology&Evolutionary Biology Uni-versity of KansasLawrenceKS 66044USA Information Systems and Mod-eling(A-1) Los Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNMUSA OneHealth Research Group Facultad de MedicinaUniversidad de las AméricasQuitoEcuador Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation Virginia TechBlacks-burgVA 24061USA Center for Emerging Zoonoticand Arthropod-Borne PathogensVirginia TechBlacksburgVA 24061USA Department of Ento-mology Fralin Life Science InstituteCollege of Agriculture and Life SciencesVirginia TechBlacksburgVA 24061USA Theoretical Biology and Biophysics(T-6) Los Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNMUSA

Background Vector-borne diseases(VBDs)are important contributors to the global burden of infectious diseases due to their epidemic potential,which can result in signifcant population and economic *** fever,caused by Oropouche virus(OROV),is an understudied zoonotic VBD febrile illness reported in Central and South *** epidemic potential and areas of likely OROV spread remain unexplored,limiting capacities to improve epidemiological *** To better understand the capacity for spread of OROV,we developed spatial epidemiology models using human outbreaks as OROV transmission-locality data,coupled with high-resolution satellite-derived vegetation phe‑*** were integrated using hypervolume modeling to infer likely areas of OROV transmission and emergence across the *** Models based on one-support vector machine hypervolumes consistently predicted risk areas for OROV transmission across the tropics of Latin America despite the inclusion of diferent parameters such as diferent study areas and environmental *** estimate that up to 5 million people are at risk of exposure to ***,the limited epidemiological data available generates uncertainty in *** example,some out‑breaks have occurred under climatic conditions outside those where most transmission events *** distribu‑tion models also revealed that landscape variation,expressed as vegetation loss,is linked to OROV *** Hotspots of OROV transmission risk were detected along the tropics of South *** loss might be a driver of Oropouche fever *** based on hypervolumes in spatial epidemiology might be considered an exploratory tool for analyzing data-limited emerging infectious diseases for which little understand‑ing exists on their sylvatic *** transmission risk maps can be used to improve surveillance,investigate OROV ecology and epidemiology,and inform early detection.

关键词： Oropouche virus Oropouche fever Spatial modeling Hypervolumes Distribution modeling Risk mapping One-class support vector machines convex-hulls

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