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A stochastic method for convective storm identification,tracking and nowcasting

Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2008年第12期18卷 1557-1563页

作者： Lei Han~(a,b) Shengxue Fu~a Guang Yang~c Hongqing Wang~b Yongguang Zheng~d Yingjing Lin~b a College of Information Science and Engineering.Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266101,China b Department of Atmospheric Science,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China c Department of Probability and Statistics,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China d National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China College of Information Science and Engineering Ocean University of China Qingdao 266101 China Department of Atmospheric Science Peking University Beijing 100871 China Department of Probability and Statistics Peking University Beijing 100871 China National Meteorological Center Beijing 100081 China

The convective storm identification,tracking and nowcasting method is one of the important nowcasting methodologies against severe convective *** severe convective cases,such as storm shape or rapid velocity changes,existing methods are apt to provide unsatisfied storm identification,tracking and nowcasting *** overcome these difficulties,this paper proposes a novel approach to identify,track and short-term forecast (nowcast) of convective storms.A mathematical morphology-based storm identification method is adopted which can identify storm cells accurately in a cluster of *** for the difficult tracking problem,sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method is utilized to simplify the tracking *** is not only inherently suitable for handling complicated splits and mergers, but also capable of handling the case of storm-missing *** order to provide more accurate forecast of a storm position,this method takes the advantages of the cross-correlation *** qualitative and quantitative evaluations show the efficiency and robustness of the proposed approach.

关键词： convective storm Doppler radar Nowcasting

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A stochastic method for convective storm identification,tracking and nowcasting

A stochastic method for convective storm identification,trac...

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中国气象学会2008年年会天气预报准确率与公共气象服务分会场

作者： Han Lei1, 2 Yang Guang3 Zheng Yongguang4 Wang Honqing1 Lin Yinjing1 (1. Department of Atmospheric Science, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China 2. College of Information Science and Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China 3. Department of Probability and Statistics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China 4. National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China)

The convective storm identification, tracking and nowcasting method is one of the important nowcasting methodologies against severe convective weather. The new generation weather radar network is under construction in China which will greatly benefit the severe weather warning operations. In severe convective cases, such as storm shape or velocity changes rapidly, existing methods are apt to provide unsatisfied storm identification, tracking and nowcasting results. To overcome these difficulties, this paper proposes a novel approach to identify, track and short-term forecast (nowcast) convective storms. A mathematical morphology-based storm identification method is adopted which can identify storm cells accurately in a cluster of storms. As for the difficult tracking problem, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method is utilized to simplify the tracking process. It is not only inherently suitable to handle complicated splits and mergers, but also capable of handling the case of storm missing detection. In order to provide more accurate forecast of storm position, this paper incorporates the advantages of the cross correlation method into the proposed method. The qualitative and quantitative evaluations show the efficiency and robustness of the proposed approach.

关键词： convective storm Doppler radar nowcasting

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STUDY ON SENSITIVITY OF WIND FIELD VARIATION TO STRUCTURE AND DEVELOPMENT OF convective stormS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2020年第1期26卷 57-70页

作者： WU Hai-ying ZENG Ming-jian MEI Hai-xia ZHANG Bing Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology CMANanjing 210009 China Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Observatory Nanjing 210008 China Jiangsu Institute of Meteorological Sciences Nanjing 210009 China

In order to study the impacts of wind field variations in the middle and lower troposphere on the development and structure of storms,we carried out numerical experiments on cases of severe convection in the Jianghuai area under the background of cold vortex on April 28,*** results show that the structure and development of convective storms are highly sensitive to the changes of wind fields,and the adjustment of wind fields in the middle or lower troposphere will lead to significant changes in the development and structure of *** the wind field in the middle or lower troposphere is weakened,the development of convective storms attenuates to some extent compared with that in the control experiment,and the ways of attenuation in the two experiments are *** the attenuation test of wind field at the middle level,convective storms obviously weaken at all stages in its development,while for the wind field at the low level,the convective storms weaken only in the initial stage of *** the contrary,the enhancement of the wind field in the middle or lower troposphere is conducive to the development of convection,especially the enhancement in the middle *** contrast,the convective storms develop rapidly in this test,as the most intensive *** wind field variations have significant impacts on the structure and organization of the *** enhancement of wind field in the middle troposphere facilitates the intension of the middle-level rotation in convective storm,the reduction of the storm scale,and the organized evolution of convective *** strengthening of the wind field in the lower troposphere is conducive to the development of the low-level secondary circulation of the storm and the cyclonic vorticity at the middle and low levels on the inflowing side of the storms.

关键词： convective storm wind field variation storm structure middle-level rotation

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On the Helicity Dynamics of Severe convective storms

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2001年第1期18卷 67-86页

作者：费世强谈哲敏 Department of AunpIterk Sciences Nanjing University

A well-documented supercell thunderstorm occurred in Del City, Oklahoma, on 20 May 1977 is successfully simulated by a three-dimensional, nonhydrostatic storm-scale numerical model ARPS. With the numerical simulated data of the storm, the structure and evolution of the helicity, superhelicity and their dynamical influences on the development of the storm are investigated. The initial helical structure of environmental flow is favorable to the development of storm. In the developing stage of storm, low helicity is beneficial to the nonlinear energy cascade. However, the high helicity is of help to maintain the energy of convection cell at the mature stage of storm, and lead to a long life cycle of convective cell. Rotating thunderstorm has a tendency of adjusting to the Beltrami flow structure and tends to a higher helicity of flow. The negative superhelicity could lead to an increase of helicity. Superhelicity is negative in the initial developing process of storm however the superhelicity is positive in the mature stage of storm. Therefore, the superhelicity can be used as an indicator of the mature degree of convective storm.

关键词： convective storm helicity superhelicity

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