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Low-Carbon Dispatch of an Integrated Energy System Considering confidence intervals for Renewable Energy Generation

Energy Engineering 2024年第2期121卷 461-482页

作者： Yan Shi Wenjie Li Gongbo Fan Luxi Zhang Fengjiu Yang Power Supply Service Supervision and Support Center East Inner Mongolia Electric Power Co.Ltd.Tongliao028000China School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering North China Electric Power UniversityBeijing102206China

Addressing the insufficiency in down-regulation leeway within integrated energy systems stemming from the erratic and volatile nature of wind and solar renewable energy generation,this study focuses on formulating a coordinated strategy involving the carbon capture unit of the integrated energy system and the resources on the load storage side.A scheduling model is devised that takes into account the confidence interval associated with renewable energy generation,with the overarching goal of optimizing the system for low-carbon *** begin with,an in-depth analysis is conducted on the temporal energy-shifting attributes and the low-carbon modulation mechanisms exhibited by the source-side carbon capture power plant within the context of integrated and adaptable operational *** from this analysis,a model is devised to represent the adjustable resources on the charge-storage side,predicated on the principles of electro-thermal coupling within the energy ***,the dissimilarities in the confidence intervals of renewable energy generation are considered,leading to the proposition of a flexible upper threshold for the confidence *** on this,a low-carbon dispatch model is established for the integrated energy system,factoring in the margin allowed by the adjustable *** the final phase,a simulation is performed on a regional electric heating integrated energy *** simulation seeks to assess the impact of source-load-storage coordination on the system’s low-carbon operation across various scenarios of reduction margin *** findings underscore that the proactive scheduling model incorporating confidence interval considerations for reduction margin reserves effectively mitigates the uncertainties tied to renewable energy *** harmonized orchestration of source,load,and storage elements,it expands the utilization scope for renewable energy,safeguards the economic efficiency of system operati

关键词： Integrated energy system carbon capture power plant confidence interval optimized scheduling

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Coverage Accuracy of confidence intervals in Nonparametric Regression

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Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica 2003年第3期19卷 387-396页

作者： Song-xiChen Yong-songQin DepartmentofStatisticsandAppliedProbability NationalUniversityofSingaporeSingapore117543Singapore DepartmentofMathematics GuangxiNormalUniversityGuilin541004China

Point-wise confidence intervals for a nonparametric regression function with random design points are considered. The confidence intervals are those based on the traditional normal approximation and the empirical likelihood. Their coverage accuracy is assessed by developing the Edgeworth expansions for the coverage probabilities. It is shown that the empirical likelihood confidence intervals are Bartlett correctable.

关键词： confidence interval empirical likelihood Nadaraya-Watson estimator normal approximation

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confidence intervals for the Binomial Proportion: A Comparison of Four Methods

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Open Journal of Statistics 2021年第5期11卷 806-816页

作者： Luke Akong’o Orawo Mathematics Department Egerton University Egerton Kenya

This paper presents four methods of constructing the confidence interval for the proportion p of the binomial distribution. Evidence in the literature indicates the standard Wald confidence interval for the binomial proportion is inaccurate, especially for extreme values of p. Even for moderately large sample sizes, the coverage probabilities of the Wald confidence interval prove to be erratic for extreme values of p. Three alternative confidence intervals, namely, Wilson confidence interval, Clopper-Pearson interval, and likelihood interval, are compared to the Wald confidence interval on the basis of coverage probability and expected length by means of simulation.

关键词： Binomial Distribution confidence interval Coverage Probability Expected Length Relative Likelihood Function

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confidence intervals of Six Distance Indices Estimated by Numerical Simulations

Confidence Intervals of Six Distance Indices Estimated by Nu...

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作者： Zheng-Ling Yang Han Wang Sheng Lian Ru-Xue Wang Jun Zhang School of Electrical and Information Engineering Tianjin University Key Laboratory of Process Measurement and Control Tianjin University

An important task in signal processing is to estimate the correlation between two signals by distance indices, which directly restricts the validity and reliability of the analysis results. This paper firstly studies the fundamental characteristics of six distance indices, i.e., the Manhattan distance, Euclidean distance, Chebyshev distance, Wasserstein distance, dynamic time warping（DTW）, and maximal information coefficient（MIC） distance. Secondly, their confidence intervals are calculated by numerical simulations. The test signal is a standard normal distribution variable plus a deterministic function, i.e., a step（position）, a ramp（velocity）, a parabola（acceleration） function respectively. A wider range of confidence intervals implied a great uncertainty of a distance index. Simulations show that the Euclidean distance, Chebyshev distance and Wasserstein distance are usually better than the others. Lastly, as an example, using distance values calculated from the moving time window,the optimal lag time between the atmospheric pressure difference from Tianjin to Guangzhou and Guangzhou wind speed is generated, and the future Guangzhou wind speeds can be predicted reliably around the optimal lag time.

关键词： signal processing distance correlation confidence interval wind speed atmospheric pressure

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Computing confidence intervals for the Postal Service’s Cost-Elasticity Estimates

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Open Journal of Statistics 2021年第5期11卷 607-619页

作者： Bzhilyanskaya Y. Lyudmila Margaret M. Cigno Soiliou D. Namoro US Postal Regulatory Commission Washington DC USA

This paper provides methods for assessing the precision of cost elasticity estimates when the underlying regression function is assumed to be polynomial. Specifically, the paper adapts two well-known methods for computing confidential intervals for ratios: the delta-method and the Fieller method. We show that performing the estimation with mean-centered explanatory variables provides a straightforward way to estimate the elasticity and compute a confidence interval for it. A theoretical discussion of the proposed methods is provided, as well as an empirical example based on publicly available postal data. Possible areas of application include postal service providers worldwide, transportation and electricity.

关键词： Volume Variability confidence interval Ratio Parameter Delta Method Fieller Method

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DEA Scores’ confidence intervals with Past-Present and Past-Present-Future Based Resampling

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American Journal of Operations Research 2016年第2期6卷 121-135页

作者： Kaoru Tone Jamal Ouenniche National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies Tokyo Japan University of Edinburgh Business School Edinburgh UK

In data envelopment analysis (DEA), input and output values are subject to change for several reasons. Such variations differ in their input/output items and their decision-making units (DMUs). Hence, DEA efficiency scores need to be examined by considering these factors. In this paper, we propose new resampling models based on these variations for gauging the confidence intervals of DEA scores. The first model utilizes past-present data for estimating data variations imposing chronological order weights which are supplied by Lucas series (a variant of Fibonacci series). The second model deals with future prospects. This model aims at forecasting the future efficiency score and its confidence interval for each DMU. We applied our models to a dataset composed of Japanese municipal hospitals.

关键词： Data Variation Resampling confidence interval Past-Present-Future DEA Hospital

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Modified Multivariate Process Capability Index Using Principal Component Analysis

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Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering 2014年第2期27卷 249-259页

作者： ZHANG Min WANG G Alan HE Shuguang HE Zhen Department of Industrial Engineering Tianjin University Department of Business Information Technology Department of Information Management and Management Science Tianjin University

The existing research of process capability indices of multiple quality characteristics mainly focuses on nonconforming of process output, the concept development of tmivariate process capability indices, quality loss function and various comprehensive evaluation methods. The multivariate complexity increases the computation difficulty of multivariate process capability indices（MPCI）, which makes them hard to be used in practice. In this paper, a new PCA-based MPCI approach is proposed to assess the production capability of the processes that involve multiple product quality characteristics. This approach first transforms the original quality variables into standardized normal variables. MPCI measures are then provided based on the Taam index. Moreover, the statistical properties of these MPCIs, such as confidence intervals and lower confidence bound, are given to let the practitioners understand the capability indices as random variables instead of deterministic variables. A real manufacturing data set and a synthetic data set are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. An implementation procedure is also provided for quality engineers to apply our MPCI approach in their manufacturing processes. The case studies demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of this new kind of MPCI, which is easier to be used in production practice. The proposed research provides a novel approach of MPCI calculation.

关键词： process capability index multivariate specification region principal component analysis confidence interval

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Empilrical Likelihood for Non-parametric Regression Models with Missing Responses:Multiple Design Case

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Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica 2011年第1期27卷 1-12页

作者： Qing-zhu Lei Yong-song Qin School of Mathematical Sciences Guangxi Normal University Guilin Guangxi 541004 China

Empirical likelihood （EL） ratio statistic on θ=g（x） is constructed based on the inverse probability weighted imputation approach in a nonparametric regression model Y = g（x）＋ε （x ∈ [0, 1]p） with fixed designs and missing responses, which asymptotically has X1^2 distribution. This result is used to obtain a EL based confidence interval on θ.

关键词： Nonparametric regression empirical likelihood missing at random confidence interval

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Design of Energy Modulation Massive SIMO Transceivers via Machine Learning

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Journal of Communications and Information Networks 2020年第3期5卷 358-368页

作者： Muhang Lan Jianhao Huang Han Zhang Chuan Huang National Key Laboratory of Science and Technology on Communications University of Electronic Science and Technology of ChinaChengdu 611731China The Future Network of Intelligence Institute and the School of Science and Engineering the Chinese University of Hong KongShenzhen 518172China Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of CaliforniaDavis 95616USA

This paper considers a massive single-input multiple-output(SIMO)system,where multiple singleantenna transmitters simultaneously communicate with a receiver equipped with a large number of *** from the conventional noncoherent transceivers which require a certain level of the statistical information on the channel fading,we propose a joint transceiver design method based on machine learning,requiring a limited number of channel *** the proposed method,the multiple transmitters,the channel,and the receiver are represented with a deep neural network(NN),and an autoencoder is adopted to minimize the end-to-end transmission error ***,the relationship between the number of training samples and the transmission error probability is analyzed based on the confidence interval *** results show that the proposed NN-based transceiver achieves lower transmission error probability in typical scenarios,and is more robust against the channel parameters variation compared with the existing methods.

关键词： neural network(NN) energy modulation massive single-input multiple-output(SIMO) joint transceiver design confidence interval

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Critical Speeds of Electric Vehicles for Regenerative Braking

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Automotive Innovation 2021年第2期4卷 201-214页

作者： Xianxu Bai Gen Chen Weihan Li Rui Jia Liang Xuan Anding Zhu Jingchang Wang Laboratory for Adaptive Structures and Intelligent Systems(LASIS) Department of Vehicle EngineeringHefei University of TechnologyHefei 230009China Chery New Energy Automotive Technology Ltd.Co Wuhu 241002China

Efficient regenerative braking of electric vehicles(EVs)can enhance the efficiency of an energy storage system(ESS)and reduce the system *** ensure swift braking energy recovery,it is paramount to know the upper limit of the regenerative energy during ***,this paper,based on 14 typical urban driving cycles,proposes the concept and principle of confidence interval of“probability event”and“likelihood energy”proportion of *** critical speeds of EVs for braking energy recovery are defined and studied through case ***,high-probability critical braking speed and high-energy critical braking speed are obtained,compared,and analyzed,according to statistical analysis and calculations of the braking randomness and likelihood energy in the urban driving cycles of ***,a new optimized ESS concept is proposed under the frame of a battery/ultra-capacitor(UC)hybrid energy storage system(HESS)combined with two critical *** battery/UC HESS with 9 UCs can achieve better regenerative braking performances and discharging performances,which indicates that a minimal amount of UCs can be used as auxiliary power source to optimize the *** that,the efficiency regenerative braking model,including the longitudinal dynamics,motor,drivetrain,tire,and wheel slip models,is ***,parameters optimization and performance verification of the optimized HESS are implemented and analyzed using a specific *** results emphasize the significance of the critical speeds of EVs for regenerative braking.

关键词： Electric vehicle Regenerative braking Critical speed Hybrid energy storage system Driving cycle confidence interval

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