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Power transmission risk assessment considering component condition

Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy 2014年第1期2卷 50-58页

作者： Lei GUO Qiwei QIU Jian LIU Yu ZHOU Linglei JIANG North Subsection of State Grid Corporation of China Beijing 100053China Shanghai Electric Power Company Shanghai 201400China Maintenance Company of Shanghai Electric Power Company Shanghai 200000China

This paper proposes a new method for power transmission risk assessment considering historical failure statistics of transmission systems and operation failure risks of system *** failure risks are integrated into the new method based on operational condition assessment of components using the support vector data description(SVDD)*** traditional outage probability model of transmission lines has been modified to build a new framework for power transmission system risk *** proposed SVDD approach can provide a suitable mechanism to map component assessment grades to failure risks based on probabilistic behaviors of power system *** the new method,both up-todate component failure risks and traditional system risk indices can be processed with the proposed outage *** a result,component failure probabilities are not only related to historical statistic data but also operational data of components,and derived risk indices can reflect current operational conditions of *** simulation studies,the SVDD approach is employed to evaluate component conditions and link such conditions to failure rates using up-to-date component operational data,including both on-line and off-line data of *** IEEE 24-bus RTS-1979 system is used to demonstrate that component operational conditions can greatly affect the overall transmission system failure risks.

关键词： risk assessment component failure risk Outage probability Condition assessment Support vector data description

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