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Stability of water yield in watersheds

Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第2期67卷 483-496页

作者： Yu YAN Zhiyong LIU Xiaohong CHEN Liyan HUANG Center for water Resources and Environment School of Civil EngineeringSun Yat-Sen UniversityGuangzhou510275China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai519082China

The hydrological system of a watershed is intricately influenced by both underlying characteristics and climate *** the variability in water yield is essential for effective water resources management and water security in the context of changing *** this study,we adopted the Budyko framework and leveraged simulations from the CMIP6 model to investigate the compensation effects of climate and underlying characteristics on watershed water *** on Taylor expansion and Budyko framework,we estimated the sensitivity of watershed water yield to climate and underlying characteristics(the first-and second-order partial derivatives).By combining external watershed characteristics(e.g.,water yield ratios and underlying characteristics)with internal sensitivity coefficients,this study further used vine copula and principal component analysis to quantify the stability of watershed water *** findings show:(1)water-yield changes related to underlying characteristics could be offset by climate-related water-yield changes across all climate zones,maintaining the water yield ratio steady(i.e.,the compensation effects).(2)However,global watersheds will turn more sensitive to underlying characteristics and less sensitive to climate variation in the *** climate-and underlying-related sensitivities increase in watersheds with arid climates.(3)The stability of watershed water yield will gradually diminish in the *** 1901–1950to 2051–2100,the global stability of 280 watersheds drops from 0.054 to 0.021(i.e.,stability index identified by the joint probability).Particularly,the largest change in stability of water yield reaches-0.347±0.18 in arid *** semi-arid,semihumid,and humid regions,the changes are-0.039±0.010,-0.028±0.005,and-0.005±0.002,*** findings provide a reference for the future sustainable water resources development under climate change,highlighting the vulnerability of the water resources in ari

关键词： Hydrological system stability compensation effects on water yield Sensitivities Budyko-Fu decomposition framework Global watersheds

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