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Bayesian discriminant analysis for prediction of coal and gas outbursts and application

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Mining Science and Technology 2010年第4期20卷 520-523,541页

作者： WANG Chao WANG Enyuan XU Jiankun LIU Xiaofei LING Li School of Safety Engineering China University of Mining ＆ Technology Xuzhou 221116 China

Based on the principle of Bayesian discriminant analysis, we established a model of Bayesian discriminant analysis for predicting coal and gas outbursts. We selected five major indices which affect outbursts, i.e., initial speed of methane diffusion, a consistent coal coefficient, gas pressure, destructive style of coal and mining depth, as discriminating factors of the model. In our model, we divided the type of coal and gas outbursts into four grades regarded as four normal populations. We then obtained the corresponding discriminant functions through training a set of data from engineering examples as learning samples and evaluated their criteria by a back substitution method to verify the optimal properties of the model. Finally, we applied the model to the prediction of coal and gas outbursts in the Yunnan Enhong Mine. Our results coincided completely with the actual situation. These results show that a model of Bayesian discriminant analysis has excellent recognition performance, high prediction accuracy and a low error rate and is an effective method to predict coal and gas outbursts.

关键词： Bayesian discriminant analysis coal and gas outbursts learning samples prediction

Study of coal and gas outbursts by numerical modeling approach

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Journal of coal Science & Engineering(China) 2007年第4期13卷 497-499页

作者：李胜张宏伟 College of Resource and Environment Engineering Liaoning Technical University Fuxin 123000 China School of Resource and Environment Engineering University of Science and Technology Beijing Beijing 100083 China

Abstract During mining or road-way development, the distribution of stress and coal pore pressure in the coal face and rib around the new opening will change, under certain conditions, dynamic failure of coal in the form of an outburst can occur. In the modeling studies presented in this paper, an outburst was considered to consist of three distinct stages： preinitiation, initiation and post-initiation, which takes into account the major processes and mechanisms that can influence both outburst-proneness and post-initiation outburst behavior. The model has been applied to simulate the effects of mechanisms in the coal matrix, coal strength, coal damage, geological structures on outbursts. The model constructed using the FLAC software, which were undertaken to research the effects on outbursts of coal strength pressure gradient, and other factors.

关键词： coal and gas outbursts numerical modeling FLAC

Research on coal structure indices to coal and gas outbursts in Pingdingshan Mine Area,China

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Journal of coal Science & Engineering(China) 2002年第1期8卷 1-6页

作者：郭德勇宋广太库明欣 BeijingCampus ChianUniversityofMiningandTechnologyBeijing100083China HenanMonltoringandManagenentBureauofProductionSafety Zhengzhou450003China Pingdlngshancoal（Grup）Corporation Pingtingshan467000China

According to the feature that coal and gas outbursts is controlled by coal structure in Pingdingshan mine area, based on the study of the distribution law of disturbed coal in Mine Area and the macroscopic characteristics of coal structure, the characteristics and genesis to micro-pore of disturbed coal, the relationship between the type of coal structure and gas parameter, and the structural feature of coal at outbursts sites are mainly explored in this paper. Further, the steps and methods are put forward that coal structure indices applied to forecast coal and gas outbursts.

关键词： coal and gas outbursts coal structure forecasting index

Microseismic Monitoring Data Fusion Algorithm and coal and gas outbursts Prediction

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Journal of Measurement Science and Instrumentation 2010年第4期1卷 315-316页

作者：赵志刚谭云亮 Key Laboratory of Mine Disaster Prevention and Control Shandong University of Science and Technology

The prediction study on coal and gas outbursts is carried out by monitoring some indices which are sensitive to the initiation of coal and gas outbursts. The values and changing roles of the indices are the foundations of coal and gas outbursts prediction. But now, only the data of ere key monitoring station is used in the coal and gas outbursts prediction practice, and the other data are ignored. In order to overcome the human factor and make full use of the monitoring information, the technique of multi-sensor target tracking is proposed to deal with the microseismic informatiion. With the results of microseismic events, the activities of geological structure, fracure-depth of roof and floor, and the location of gas channel are obtained. These studies indicate that it is considerably possible to predict the coal and gas outbursts using microseismic monitoring with its inherent ability to remotely monitor the progressive failure caused by mining.

关键词： coal and gas outbursts microseismic monitoring data fusion

Research on Geological Structure Mark of coal and gas outbursts in Pingdingshan Mining Area

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Journal of China University of Mining and Technology 2002年第1期12卷 72-76页

作者：郭德勇韩德馨姜光杰 Department of Resource Exploitation Engineering CUMT Beijing 100083 P.R.China Pingdingshan coal (Group) Co. Ltd. PingdingshanHenan 467000 P.R.China

Based on the study of regional displaying rules of coal and gas outburst controlled by geological structure in Pingdingshan mining area, the geological structure features in outburst sites were investigated emphatically. The combination type, orientation and least seam thickness in outburst sites were put forward. This research provides a geological mark for forecasting gas outbursts in deep mining.

关键词： coal and gas outbursts geological structure structure coal forecasting index

Determination of indices and critical values of gas parameters of the first gas outburst in a coal seam of the Xieqiao Mine

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International Journal of Mining Science and Technology 2012年第1期22卷 89-93页

作者： Ou Jianchun Liu Mingju Zhang Chunru Liu Yanwei Wei Jianping School of Safety Engineering Chino University of Mining&TechnologyXuzhou 221008China Science and Engineering Henan Polytechnic UniversityJiaozuo 454003China Xieqiao Mine of Huainan Mining Industry Group Huainan 232001Chino

Based on the important role in mine safety played by parameters of the first gas outburst, we propose a method of combining historic data, theoretical analysis and experimental research for the purpose of crit- ical values of gas parameters of the first gas outburst in a coal seam of the Xieqiao Mine. According to a characteristic analysis and a summary of the rules of coal and gas outbursts in the No.8 coal seam of a Hua- inan mine, we have investigated their effect on coal and gas outbursts in terms such as ground stress, gas, and coal structure. We have selected gas parameters and determined the critical values of each of the fol- lowing indices： gas content as 7.7 m^3/t, tectonic coal as 0.8 m thick, the absolute gas emission as 2 m3/min, the rate of change as 0.7 m3/min, the gas desorption index of a drilling chip KI as 0.26 mL/（g min^1/2） and the values of desorption indexes Ah2 as 200 Pa. From a verification of the production, the results indicate that application of each index and their critical values significantly improve the level of safety in the pro- duction process, relieve the burden upon the mine, save much labor and bring clear economic benefits.

关键词： Parameters of first gas outburst gas content Thickness of tectonic coal Critical value coal and gas outbursts