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Analysis on the Mutation and Time-Varying Characteristics of coal price System Evolution from the Perspective of Finance

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2021年第4期34卷 1501-1521页

作者： CHAI Jian LEI Junchan SHI Huiting ZHANG Xuejun LANG Meiling School of Economics and Management Xidian UniversityXi'an 710126China

coal is essential to ensure China’s energy *** sudden or gradual change of coal price reflects the degree of disequilibrium or expected disequilibrium of coal supply and demand,which will not be conducive to energy ***,it is important to analyze the change points of coal price and explore the reason of the price *** paper analyses the coal price from January2008 to June 2019 as the perspective of the financial ***,the PPM-DBSCAN model is used to identify the mutation point of coal price ***,path analysis is used to extract the core driving factors that affect coal ***,the authors construct a time-varying and time-lag effect analysis model for structural changes of coal price based on the TVP-VAR *** results show that there are 11 mutation points of coal price *** market factors,coal supply and demand and alternative factors are the reasons of coal price *** authors find that the imbalance of coal supply and demand in traditional view cannot fully explain the fluctuation of coal *** impact of the financial market and non-thermal power generation have more influence on the coal price.

关键词： coal price financial market mutation

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Will coal price Fluctuations Affect Renewable Energy Substitution and Carbon Emission? A Computable General Equilibrium-Based Study of China

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Energy Engineering 2021年第4期118卷 1009-1026页

作者： Wenhui Zhao Yibo Yin Lu Mao Konglu Zhong Guanghui Yuan Hai Huang Yige Yang College of Economics and Management Shanghai University of Electric PowerShanghai200090China Zhejiang Electric Power Construction Co. Ltd.Ningbo315000China Zhejiang Huayun Electric Power Engineering Design Consulting Co. Ltd.Hangzhou310014China Fintech Research Institute&School of Information Management and Engineering Shanghai University of Finance and EconomicsShanghai200433China State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control(SKLESPC) School of EnvironmentTsinghua UniversityBeijing10084China State Grid Integrated Energy Planning and D&R Institute Beijing10084China

Changes in the energy price system will determine the direction of evolution of the energy industry *** a country where coal is the dominant energy source,what is the effect of coal price fluctuations on China’s industry development costs and energy consumption structure?To investigate this problem,this paper utilized an economy–energy–environment computable general equilibrium *** this study,four aspects were analyzed:Energy supply side,proportion of renewable energy consumption,macroeconomy,and changes in CO_(2) *** results of this study show that an increase of 10%–20%in coal prices contributes to a shift into using renewable energy,which leads to energy saving and emission *** energy and clean energy rose by 0.57%–4.47%in the energy structure,but this has a certain negative impact on the *** gross domestic product(GDP)fell by 0.07%–0.18%.As a result,the decline in coal prices became an obstacle to renewable energy substitution and energy *** addition,we put forward policy suggestions according to the results in energy,economic,and environmental effects.

关键词： coal price computable general equilibrium multi-scenario simulation renewable energy

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coal price fluctuations and the impact on financial risk Evidence from China＇s coal listed companies

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Chinese Business Review 2010年第8期9卷 32-36页

作者： SHENG Hu FENG Yao-ping Business School Central South University Changsha 410083 China Shan ＇xi Lu ＇an Environmental Energy Development Co. Ltd. Changzhi 046204 China

With the rise of coal price, the proportion of loss-making enterprises shows an upward trend in China＇s coal industry. This paper uses Altman Z-Score model to measure financial risk of 19 listed companies in the coal industry in A-share market from 1995 to 2007. Empirical results show that Year-Based price index of coal price has a negative correlation with the financial risk but has no significance, and coal chain price has a significant negative correlation with the financial risk. Further research indicates that enterprises increase bad investment, and a lot of debts caused by short-term rise in coal prices. The results also show that the financial risk in the coal industry declines with the rise of GDP growth rate and increases with the rise of inflation rate.

关键词： coal listed companies coal price financial risk corporate investment and financing

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How to Realize Power price Reduction in China?

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Electricity 2012年第1期23卷 1-6页

作者： Zhu Chengzhang Zhong Zhaorui

In order to make power price truly reflect the cost of electric power and a reasonable profit without making the price unaffordable to the public, the government would have to adopt measures including tax reduction, s... 详细信息

关键词： electricity price electric power cost electricicty taxation coal price

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能源价格对宏观经济的影响

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国民经济管理 2009年第2期

作者：林伯强牟敦国

石油与煤炭价格上涨将对中国经济造成什么样的影响，其影响度与中国现阶段的经济特点的相关性，以及如何应对能源价格上涨的影响，都是政府宏观决策需要研究的重大问题。本文运用CGE方法研究了这些问题，尤其是对石油与煤炭价格上涨影... 详细信息

石油与煤炭价格上涨将对中国经济造成什么样的影响，其影响度与中国现阶段的经济特点的相关性，以及如何应对能源价格上涨的影响，都是政府宏观决策需要研究的重大问题。本文运用CGE方法研究了这些问题，尤其是对石油与煤炭价格上涨影响程度的对比，填补了这一方面的研究空白。结果表明：能源价格上涨对中国经济具有紧缩作用，但对不同产业的紧缩程度不一致，能源价格除了影响经济增长，还将推动产业结构变化。对大多数产业而言，相同比例的价格上涨，煤炭的紧缩作用是石油紧缩作用的、2至3倍；对于非能源密集型的服务业紧缩幅度也达3倍，石油和煤炭的经济紧缩作用程度不一致与目前中国能源消费结构基本吻合，2007年中国煤炭消费占一次能源的70％，而石油消费仅占20％。本文最后就如何应对能源价格上涨的影响提出建议。

关键词：石油价格煤炭价格紧缩作用产业结构 Oil price coal price Contraction Effect Industrial Structure

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