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Water yield and biomass production for on a eucalypt-dominated Mediterranean catchment under different Climate scenarios

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林业研究:英文版 2023年第5期34卷 1263-1278页

作者： Joao Rocha Ana Quintela Dalila Serpa Jan Jacob Keizer Sérgio Fabres RAIZ-Forest and Paper Research Institute Quinta de S.FranciscoRua JoséEstevao(EN 230-1)3800–783 EixoAveiroPortugal Department of Environment and Planning Centre of Environmental and Marine Studies(CESAM)University of AveiroCampus Universitário de Santiago3810–193 AveiroPortugal

Worldwide,forests are vital in the regulation of the water cycle regulation and in water balance allocation.Knowledge of ecohydrological responses of production forests is essential to support management strategies,especially where water is already scarce.Shifting climatological patterns are expected to impact thermopluviometric regimes,water cycle components,hydrological responses,and plant physiology,evapotranspiration rates,crop productivity and land management operations.This work(1)assessed the impacts of different predicted climate conditions on water yield;(2)inferred the impacts of climate change on biomass production on eucalypt-to-eucalypt succes sion.To this end,the widely accepted Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)was run with the RCA,HIRHAM5 and RACMO climate models for two emission scenarios(RCP 4.5 and8.5).Three 12-year periods were considered to simulate tree growth under coppice regime.The results revealed an overall reduction in streamflow and water yield in the catchment in line with the projected reduction in total annual precipitation.Moreover,HIRHAM5 and RACMO models forecast a slight shift in seasonal streamflow of up to 2 months(for2024-2048)in line with the projected increase in precipitation from May to September.For biomass production,the extreme climate model(RCA)and severe emis sion scenario(RCP 8.5)predicted a decrease up to 46%.However,in the less extreme and more-correlated(with actual catchment climate conditions)climate models(RACMO and HIRHAM5)and in the less extreme emission scenario(RCP 4.5),biomass production increased(up to 20%),and the growth cycle was slightly reduced.SWAT was proven to be a valuable tool to assess climate change impacts on a eucalypt-dominated catchment and is a suitable decision-support tool for forest managers.

关键词： Climate scenarios Forested catchments Forest ecohydrological modelling Eucalypt biomass production SWAT model

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Impact of rainfed and irrigated agriculture systems on soil carbon stock under different Climate scenarios in the semi-arid region of Brazil

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Journal of Arid Land 2022年第4期14卷 359-373页

作者： André L CARVALHO Renato A ARAúJO-NETO Guilherme B LYRA Carlos E P CERRI Stoécio M F MAIA Center for Agrarian Sciences Federal University of AlagoasRio Largo 57072-900Brazil Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture The University of Sao PauloPiracicaba 13418-900Brazil Federal Institute of Alagoas Marechal Deodoro 57160-000Brazil

Understanding the dynamics of soil organic carbon(SOC) is of fundamental importance in land use and management, whether in the current researches or in future scenarios of agriculture systems considering climate change. In order to evaluate SOC stock of the three districts(Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts) in the semi-arid region of Brazil in rainfed and irrigated agriculture systems under different Climate scenarios using the Century model, we obtained RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Climate scenarios derived from the Eta Regional climate Model(Eta-Had GEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) from the National Institute for Space Research, and then input the data of bulk density, p H, soil texture, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and rainfall into the soil and climate files of the Century model. The results of this study showed that the Eta-Had GEM2-ES model was effective in estimating air temperature in the future period. In rainfed agriculture system, SOC stock under the baseline scenario was lower than that under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Climate scenarios, while in irrigated agriculture system, SOC stock in the almost all Climate scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and models(Eta-Had GEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) will increase by 2100. The results of this study will help producers in the semi-arid region of Brazil adopt specific agriculture systems aimed at mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.

关键词： soil carbon stock agriculture systems Climate scenarios Century model semi-arid region

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The interaction between temperature and precipitation on the potential distribution range of Betula ermanii in the alpine treeline ecotone on the Changbai Mountain

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Forest Ecosystems 2024年第1期11卷 42-51页

作者： Yu Cong Yongfeng Gu Wen J.Wang Lei Wang Zhenshan Xue Yingyi Chen Yinghua Jin Jiawei Xu Mai-He Li Hong S.He Ming Jiang Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology Chinese Academy of SciencesChangchun 130102China Key Laboratory of Geographical Processes and Ecological Security in Changbai Mountains Ministry of EducationSchool of Geographical SciencesNortheast Normal UniversityChangchun 130024China School of Natural Resources University of MissouriColumbiaMO 65211USA Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSLCH-8903 BirmensdorfSwitzerland School of Life Science Hebei UniversityBaoding 071000China

Alpine treeline ecotones are highly sensitive to climate warming.The low temperature-determined alpine treeline is expected to shift upwards in response to global warming.However,little is known about how temperature interacts with other important factors to influence the distribution range of tree species within and beyond the alpine treeline ecotone.Hence,we used a GF-2 satellite image,along with bioclimatic and topographic variables,to develop an ensemble suitable habitat model based on the species distribution modeling algorithms in Biomod2.We investigated the distribution of suitable habitats for B.ermanii under three climate change scenarios(i.e.,low(SSP126),moderate(SSP370)and extreme(SSP585)future emission trajectories)between two consecutive time periods(i.e.,current-2055,and 2055-2085).By 2055,the potential distribution range of B.ermanii will expand under all three Climate scenarios.The medium and high suitable areas will decline under SSP370 and SSP585scenarios from 2055 to 2085.Moreover,under the three Climate scenarios,the uppermost altitudes of low suitable habitat will rise to 2,329 m a.s.l.,while the altitudes of medium and high suitable habitats will fall to 2,201 and2,051 m a.***.l.by 2085,respectively.Warming promotes the expansion of B.ermanii distribution range in Changbai Mountain,and this expansion will be modified by precipitation as climate warming continues.This interaction between temperature and precipitation plays a significant role in shaping the potential distribution range of B.ermanii in the alpine treeline ecotone.This study reveals the link between environmental factors,habitat distribution,and species distribution in the alpine treeline ecotone,providing valuable insights into the impacts of climate change on high-elevation vegetation,and contributing to mountain biodiversity conservation and sustainable development.

关键词： Biomod2 Birch climate change Climate scenarios Habitat suitability Range shift Treeline species

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Predicting the effectiveness of protected areas of Natura 2000 under climate change

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Ecological Processes 2019年第1期8卷 162-182页

作者： Mst.Umme Salma Nila Carl Beierkuhnlein Anja Jaeschke Samuel Hoffmann Md Lokman Hossain Global Change Ecology International Elite Study ProgrammeUniversity of BayreuthUniversitätsstraße 3095447 BayreuthGermany Department of Biogeography University of BayreuthUniversitätsstraße 3095447 BayreuthGermany Department of Geography Hong Kong Baptist University15 Baptist University RoadKowloon TongHong Kong Department of Environmental Protection Technology German University Bangladesh1702 GazipurBangladesh.

Background:Protected areas(PAs)are aimed to hold the environmental conditions that facilitate species and ecosystems to persist.PAs can become climatically unsuitable and unable to sustain their current number of species under climate change.The Natura 2000(N2K)is the largest coordinated conservation tool assigned to maintain the long-term survival of Europe’s most significant species and habitats.In attempting to understand the effectiveness of PAs in the face of climate change scenarios,we tested two hypotheses:(1)PAs in the Alpine and the Boreal biogeographical regions will experience more newly emerged climate conditions(hotter and drier)compared to the climate representation of other biogeographical regions under future climate in Europe and(2)PAs in the Mediterranean and the Continental biogeographical regions will face more consistency in climate conditions due to less area of disappearing and novel climate in future.Methods:Current climate data(1960–1990)and projections for 2050 and 2070 of PAs of N2K were extracted from WorldClim global climate data.Principal components analysis(PCA)was performed to construct climate space for the PAs across the biogeographical regions based on 19 climatic variables assessed at 5-km resolution.ArcMap 10.1 was used to map the location of the novel and disappearing climates.Results:PAs in the Alpine region will experience more novel climate conditions in the future compared to other biogeographical regions.The future projections showed that 17.70%of the PAs in the Alpine region will experience novel climate by 2070.Considerable climate consistency was observed in the PAs in the Continental region compared to the other biogeographical regions.Our results showed that about 176 km2 of the selected PAs in the Continental region will face new emerging climate,while about 110 km2 will disappear under RCP 8.5 scenario.The prediction also revealed that in the Mediterranean region 08 PAs will experience novel climate and 786 km2 areas in these PAs will face disappearing climate by

关键词： Biodiversity conservation Biogeographical region climate change Climate scenarios Natura 2000,Protected areas

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GCM STUDIES ON ANTHROPOGENIC climate CHANGE IN CHINA

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2000年第2期14卷 247-256页

作者：赵宗慈罗勇高学杰 National climate Center Beijing 100081

Impacts of human activities on climate change as simulated by the general circulation models (GCMs)in China for the recent ten years have been summarized and reviewed in this paper.The researches show that it might be getting warmer over China due to the greenhouse effects.The atmospheric circulation and precipitation also might be changed due to the greenhouse effects.The assessments and evaluations of the models over the globe and China have also been presented in this paper.

关键词： human activity greenhouse effects Climate scenarios general circulation models(GCMs) East Asia and China

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中国西部地区气候变化的事实、预测及其影响

中国西部地区气候变化的事实、预测及其影响

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大气科学发展战略——中国气象学会第25次全国会员代表大...

作者：秦大河中国气象局

＜正＞中国东、西部地区的界限历经嬗变,2000年国务院关于实施西部大开发若干政策的通知中有明确界定:“西部开发的政策适用范围,包括重庆市、四川省、贵州省、云南省、西藏自治区、陕西省、甘肃省、宁夏回族自治区、青海省、新疆维吾... 详细信息

＜正＞中国东、西部地区的界限历经嬗变,2000年国务院关于实施西部大开发若干政策的通知中有明确界定:“西部开发的政策适用范围,包括重庆市、四川省、贵州省、云南省、西藏自治区、陕西省、甘肃省、宁夏回族自治区、青海省、新疆维吾尔自治区和内蒙古自治区、广西壮族自治区”,根据这一划分,西部地区介于73°25’～126°04’E和20°54’～53°23’N的广袤范围。在这一地区,地质环境特殊,活跃的地壳运动造成多山地、高原与盆地相间出现。其次,高寒与干旱气候并

关键词： West China climate change Climate scenarios ecological protection.

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