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downscaling climate Projections over La Plata Basin

Atmospheric and climate Sciences 2016年第1期6卷 1-12页

作者： Caroline Mourão Sin Chan Chou José Marengo National Institute for Space Research Cachoeira Paulista Brazil National Center for Natural Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil

Regional climate Models are important tools, which are increasingly being used in studies of impacts and adaptation to climate change at local scale. The goal of this work is to assess the climate change over the La Plata Basin, using the Eta Regional model with a resolution of 10 km. Initial and boundary conditions used by the model are provided by the Eta-20 km model and the HadGEM2-ES Global model. The RCP 4.5 scenario was used for simulations of the future climate. The evaluation of the present climate (1961-1990) shows that the model represents well the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and temperature in the region. The model underestimates precipitation over large areas in summer, and overestimates in Southern Brazil in winter. Simulated temperature shows a good correlation with CRU data, with bias less than 1°C. The bias of temperature and precipitation in this simulation setup for the La Plata Basin is substantially reduced in comparison with previous literature using regional models. The climatic projections are shown in timeslices: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099. In the three timeslices, the simulation project has a trend for an increase in precipitation during summer in Argentina, Uruguay, and southernmost Brazil. This increase is only projected in Southern Brazil during winter. The negative anomaly of precipitation appears in a large portion of the model domain during summer and is limited to some states in Southeast and Central-West Brazil in winter. The area with largest warming is projected in the northern portion of the domain. The projected increase in temperature reaches about 4°C in 2071-2099.

关键词： Regional climate Model climate downscaling climate Change Assessment La Plata Basin

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Assessment of climate Change over South America under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 downscaling Scenarios

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American Journal of climate Change 2014年第5期3卷 512-527页

作者： Sin Chan Chou Andre Lyra Caroline Mourao Claudine Dereczynski Isabel Pilotto Jorge Gomes Josiane Bustamante Priscila Tavares Adan Silva Daniela Rodrigues Diego Campos Diego Chagas Gustavo Sueiro Gracielle Siqueira Jose Marengo National Institute for Space Research Cachoeira PaulistaBrazil Department of Meteorology Federal University of Rio de JaneiroRio de JaneiroBrazil National Center for Natural Disaster Monitoring and Warning Sao Jose dos CamposBrazil

Four sets of downscaling simulations based on the Eta Regional climate Model forced by two global climate models, the HadGEM2-ES and the MIROC5, and two RCP scenarios—8.5 and 4.5, have been carried out. The objective of this work is to assess the climate change over South America based on the Eta simulations. The future changes are shown in timeslices of 30 years: 2011-2040;2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The climate change response of the Eta simulations nested in HadGEM2-ES is larger than the Eta nested in MIROC5. Major warming area is located in the central part of Brazil. In austral summer, the reduction of precipitation in the central part and the increase in the southeastern part of the continent are common changes in these simulations, while the EtaHadGEM2-ES intensifies the decrease of precipitation in central Brazil, the Eta-MIROC5 expands the area of increase of precipitation in southern Brazil toward the end of the century. In austral winter, precipitation decrease is found in the northern part of South America and in most of Central America, whereas the reduction in southeastern South America is limited to near coastal region. The time series of temperatures show that warming trends are larger in the Eta-HadGEM2-ES than in the Eta-MIROC5 simulations. Heavier precipitation rates are projected in the Central-South of Brazil toward the end of the century. Increase in the length of consecutive dry days (CDD) in Northeast of Brazil and the decrease of consecutive wet days (CWD) in the Amazon region are common features in these simulations.

关键词： South America climate downscaling climate Change Assessment Climatic Extreme Indicators Eta Model

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Generating high-resolution climatological precipitation data using SinGAN

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Big Earth Data 2023年第1期7卷 81-100页

作者： Yang Wang Hassan A.Karimi Geoinformatics Laboratory School of Computing and InformationUniversity of PittsburghPittsburghUSA

High-resolution(HR)climate data are indispensable for studying regional climate trends,disaster prediction,and urban development planning in the face of climate ***,state-of-the-art long-term global climate simulations do not provide appropriate HR climate *** learning models are often used to obtain high-resolution climate ***,due to the fact that these models require sufficient low-resolution(LR)and HR data pairs for the training process,they cannot be applied to scenario with inadequate training *** this paper,we explore the applicability of a single image generative adversarial network(SinGAN)in generating HR climate *** relies on single LR input data to obtain the corresponding HR *** improve the performance for extreme-value regions,we propose a SinGAN combined with the weighted patchGAN discriminator(WSinGAN).The proposed WSinGAN outperforms comparable models in generating HR precipitation data,and its results are close to real HR data with sharp gradients and more refined small-scale *** also test the scalability of the pre-trained WSinGAN for unseen samples and show that although only a single LR sample is used to train WSinGAN,it can still produce reliable HR data for unseen data.

关键词： climate downscaling SinGAN deep learning adversarial training

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Evaluation of the Eta Simulations Nested in Three Global climate Models

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American Journal of climate Change 2014年第5期3卷 438-454页

作者： Sin Chan Chou André Lyra Caroline Mourao Claudine Dereczynski Isabel Pilotto Jorge Gomes Josiane Bustamante Priscila Tavares Adan Silva Daniela Rodrigues Diego Campos Diego Chagas Gustavo Sueiro Gracielle Siqueira Paulo Nobre José Marengo National Institute for Space Research Cachoeira PaulistaBrazil Department of Meteorology Federal University of Rio de JaneiroRio de JaneiroBrazil Centre for Monitoring and Warning of Natural Disasters Cachoeira PaulistaBrazil

To provide long-term simulations of climate change at higher resolution, Regional climate Models (RCMs) are nested in global climate models (GCMs). The objective of this work is to evaluate the Eta RCM simulations driven by three global models, the HadGEM2-ES, BESM, and MIROC5, for the present period, 1961-1990. The RCM domain covers South America, Central America, and Caribbean. These simulations will be used for assessment of climate change projections in the region. Maximum temperatures are generally underestimated in the domain, in particular by MIROC5 driven simulations, in summer and winter seasons. Larger spread among the simulations was found in the minimum temperatures, which showed mixed signs of errors. The spatial correlations of temperature simulations against the CRU observations show better agreement for the MIROC5 driven simulations. The nested simulations underestimate precipitation in large areas over the continent in austral summer, whereas in winter overestimate occurs in southern Amazonia, and underestimate in southern Brazil and eastern coast of Northeast Brazil. The annual cycle of the near-surface temperature is underestimated in all model simulations, in all regions in Brazil, and in most of the year. The temperature and precipitation frequency distributions reveal that the RCM and GCM simulations contain more extreme values than the CRU observations. Evaluations of the climatic extreme indicators show that in general hot days, warm nights, and heat waves are increasing in the period, in agreement with observations. The Eta simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES show wet trends in the period, whereas the Eta driven by BESM and by MIROC5 show trends for drier conditions.

关键词： South America climate downscaling Model Evaluation Climatic Extreme Indicators Eta Model

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