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impact Assessment of climate change on Algal Blooms by a Parametric Modeling Study in Han River

Journal of Resources and Ecology 2012年第3期3卷 209-219页

作者：夏瑞陈志周云中国环境科学研究院北京100012 康考迪亚大学工程与计算机学院

The potential impact of climate change on international and domestic concern. This study aims water eutrophication and ecosystems is of great to analyze the impact of climate change on algal bloom problems in large river systems by utilizing a parametric river eutrophication model that is established using indicators of climate change, hydrological regimes, water quality and nutrient loads. Specifically, the developed parametric modeling method is based on statistical and simulation methods including： Multiple Linear Regressions （MLR）, Multiple Non-linear Regressions （MNR）, Artificial Neural Network （ANN） based on Back-propagation （BP） algorithms, as well as an integrated river eutrophication model. The developed model was applied to Han River, which is one of the major sources of fresh water in Wuhan City, China. The impacts of climate change and human activities on the occurrence mechanisms of algal blooms in the Hart River were identified by scenarios analysis. The individual assessment result indicates that the waste nutrient P load has the most significant impact （14.82%）, followed by the flow rate （5.56%） and then by temperature （3.7%）. For the integrated climate change assessment, it has been found that there is a significant impact （20.37%） when waste load increases and flow rate decreases at the same time. This is followed by increases but flow rate decreases, increase of both waste load and the impact is predicted to be 11 temperature （15.82%）. If temperature 11%. The final results point to human activities as a significant influence on water quality and the Han River ecosystem, temperature is also one of the main factors which directly contribute to algal blooms in Han River. The results in present study are expected to give theoretical supports for further relevant research on water eutrophication.

关键词： climate change impact eutrophication algal blooms parametric models Han River China

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Projected impacts of climate change on protected birds and nature reserves in China

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Science Bulletin 2015年第19期60卷 1644-1653页

作者： Xueyan Li Nicholas Clinton Yali Si Jishan Liao Lu Liang Peng Gong Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Center for Earth System Science Tsinghua University College of Global change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal University Joint Center for Global change Studies State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science Jointly Sponsored by Institute of Remote Sensing Applications Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal University

Knowledge about climate change impacts on species distribution at national scale is critical to biodi- versity conservation and design of management programs. Although China is a biodiversity hot spot in the world, potential influence of climate change on Chinese protected birds is rarely studied. Here, we assess the impact of climate change on 108 protected bird species and nature reserves using species distribution modeling at a relatively fine spatial resolution （1 km） for the first time. We found that a large proportion of protected species would have potential suitable habitat shrink and northward range shift by 77-90 km in response to projected future climate change in 2080. Southeastern China would suffer from losing climate suitability, whereas the climate conditions in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and northeastern China were projected to become suitable for more protected species. On average, each protected area in decline of suitable climate for China would experience a 3-4 species by 2080. Cli- mate change will modify which species each protected area will be suitable for. Our results showed that the risk of extinction for Chinese protected birds would be high, even in the moderate climate change scenario. These findings indicate that the management and design of nature reserves in China must take climate change into consideration.

关键词： climate change impact Protected bird species Habitat suitability Range shift Species distribution model

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impacts of climate change on Cotton Yield in China from 1961 to2010 Based on Provincial Data

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2015年第3期29卷 515-524页

作者：陈超庞艳梅潘学标张立祯 Institute of Plateau Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province College of Resources and Environment China Agricultural University

To develop scientific countermeasures, the impacts of climate change on cotton yield during 1961-2010 in three major cotton-producing regions of China were studied by using the available provincial data. The results indicate that （1） a rise in average temperature increased the cotton yield in most provinces of Northwest China and the Yellow River valley; however, the rise in average temperature decreased the cotton yield in the Yangtze River valley. Moreover, cotton production across the entire study region was reduced by approximately 0.1% relative to the average during 1961-2010. （2） A decrease in diurnal temperature range （DTR） reduced cotton yield in some provinces, while a beneficial DTR effect was observed in the other provinces. changes in DTR resulted in an average decrease in production by approximatly 5.5% across the entire study region. （3） A change in the amount of precipitation increased the cotton yield in some provinces; however, it caused a decrease in other provinces. The decrease in average production due to the change in precipitation was approximately 1.1%. We concluded that the changes in temperature and precipitation decreased cotton yields in China, while beneficial effects of temperature and precipitation existed in the cotton-growing regions of Northwest China during 1961-2010.

关键词： climate change impact cotton yield provincial data China temperature precipitation

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impact of the Iron Gates on the Sediments with an Emphasis on the Area of the Future Belene Nuclear Power Plant

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Journal of Geological Resource and Engineering 2020年第2期8卷 35-41页

作者： Tzviatka Karagiozova Plamen Ninov National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Sofia 1784Bulgaria

The present investigation has been fulfilled with a view to the future nuclear power station constriction near the Belene *** loads and sediment transportation are important factors for the technical water supply of the nuclear station *** paper deals with change of suspended sediment load at Bulgarian part of the Danube River downstream of the Iron *** data on suspended sediment loads for the hydrometric gauge station at Svishtov have been collected,computed and *** results obtained discover the time variability of the sediment loads,climate change and the anthropogenic impact on the suspended *** tendency of alteration and inter-annual variability of the suspended sediments are investigated and characteristics of average annual,monthly and maximal values are *** the material archive granulometric data are presented for this part of the Bulgarian stretch before the Iron Gates construction in the conditions of the natural sediment *** are statistical parameters of the studied characteristics of the river turbidity and discharge before and after the anthropogenic *** increase of the absolute minimal turbidity has been determined after the Iron Gate I as a result of activation of the bed processes and hydro-morphological changes.

关键词： Suspended sediment load climate change impact anthropogenic impact.

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