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climate change attribution of the 2021 Henan extreme precipitation: Impacts of convective organization

Science China Earth Sciences 2022年第10期65卷 1837-1846页

作者： Han QIN Wei YUAN Jun WANG Yang CHEN Panxi DAI Adam HSOBEL Zhiyong MENG Ji NIE Laboratory for climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China Aviation Meteorological Center Civil Aviation Administration of ChinaBeijing 100621China Key Laboratory of Regional climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric Science School of Earth SciencesZhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310027China Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University

In this study, we investigate the climate attribution of the 21·7 Henan extreme precipitation event. A conditional storyline attribution method is used, based on simulations of the event with a small-domain high-resolution cloud-resolving model. Large-scale vertical motion is determined by an interactive representation of large-scale dynamics based on the quasigeostrophic omega equation, with dynamical forcing terms taken from observation-based reanalysis data. It is found that warming may lead to significant intensification of both regional-scale(10–14% K, depending on convective organization) and station-scale precipitation extremes(7–9% K^(-1)). By comparing clustered convection organized by a localized surface temperature anomaly and squall-line convection organized by vertical wind shear, we further explored how convective organization may modify precipitation extremes and their responses to warming. It is found that shear convective organization is much more sensitive to large-scale dynamic forcing and results in much higher precipitation extremes at both regional and station scales than unorganized convection is. The clustered convection increases station-scale precipitation only slightly during heavy precipitation events. For regional-scale extreme precipitation sensitivity, shear-organized convection has a larger sensitivity by 2–3% Kthan that of unorganized convection, over a wide temperature range, due to its stronger diabatic heating feedback. For the station-scale extreme precipitation sensitivity, no systemic dependence on convective organization is found in our simulations.

关键词： Extreme precipitation Global warming climate change attribution Convective organization Hourly precipitation

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