检索结果-南通市图书馆

Change in climate indices Using Bias-Adjusted CMIP5 Models: The Case Study of the Fatick Region, Senegal

American Journal of climate Change 2022年第4期11卷 307-330页

作者： Ibrahima Camara Quentin Lejeune Dimitri Defrance Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng Issa Sakho Youssouph Sane Mélinda Noblet Moussa Diakhaté Benjamen Sultan Saidou Moustapha Sall Sérigne Faye Laboratoire de Physique de l’Atmosphère et de l’océan Ecoloe Supérieure Polytechnique Université Cheikh Anta DIOP de Dakar Dakar Sénégal climate Analytics Berlin Germany The climate Data Factory Paris France Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research-Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU) Karlsruhe Germany Université Amadou Mahtar Mbow (UAM) Dakar Sénégal Agence Nationale de l’Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie (ANACIM) Dakar Sénégal Département de Géologie Faculté des Sciences et Techniques Université Cheikh Anta DIOP de Dakar Dakar Sénégal

This study analyses change in rainfall and temperature indices by 2035 and 2050 in Senegal, with a focus on the Fatick region. These parameters are crucial for understanding the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on some vital socio-economic sectors such as agriculture and water resources in this region. To this end, a multi model ensemble mean of 21 bias-adjusted global climate models participating in CMIP5 has been used. We considered two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results indicate an increase of 0.7˚C for maximum and minimum temperature by 2035 compared to the reference period (1976 - 2005). By 2050, an increase of 1.4˚C (2˚C) is projected for RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). These increases in temperature are statistically significant at the 90% confidence level. Conversely, the mean rainy season length decreases from 95 to 85 days by 2035 and less than 80 days by 2050. These decreases in rainy season length are mainly due to a delayed rainy season onset by 2035 and 2050, with the ensemble mean projecting an onset in the second half of July by 2050 instead of around the middle of June. The changes in both the onset and the length of the rainy season are significant at the 90% confidence level. Our results show a slight decrease in seasonal cumulated total rainfall by 2035 and 2050. However, we note a slight increase in seasonal cumulated extreme rainfall. These future changes in climate indices could induce yield reduction and water resources availability. To reduce yield losses, it would be interesting to adopt longer season varieties and also diversify income-generating activities. Concerning water resources, many actions could be done such as carrying out water retention works, treatment and reuse of non-conforming water for agriculture and livestock to reduce pressure on the resource.

关键词： climate indices CMIP5 Fatick (Senegal) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

climate Services Elaboration for Cocoa Cultivation in Côte d’Ivoire: Contribution of CORDEX climate Projections

引用

Agricultural Sciences 2024年第3期15卷 358-375页

作者： Adama Bamba Fidèle Yoroba N’Datchoh Evelyne Toure Kouakou Kouadio Mory Ouattara Kakou M’bo Mamadou Cherif Daouda Kone Arona Diedhiou Laboratoire des sciences de la Matière de l’Environnement et de l’Energie Solaire (LASMES) Université Félix Houphou&#235t Boigny Abidjan C&#244te d’Ivoire Centre d’Excellence Africain en Changement Climatique Biodiversité et Agriculture Durable (CCBAD) Université Félix Houphou&#235t Boigny Abidjan C&#244te d’Ivoire Laboratoire Mixte International Climat-Eau-Energy-Agriculture Université Félix Houphou&#235t Boigny Abidjan C&#244te d’Ivoire Station Géophysique de LAMTO N’Douci C&#244te d’Ivoire UFR Bioscience Université Félix Houphou&#235t Boigny Abidjan C&#244te d’Ivoire Université Grenoble Alpes IRD CNRS Grenoble-INP IGE Grenoble France

This study assessed the contribution of climate projections to improving rainfall information for cocoa crops in the central and southern regions of Côte d’Ivoire. Particular attention was paid to fourteen localities in these two climatic zones. Simulation data were obtained from the CORDEX ensemble and observation data from CHIRPS. They cover the period 1991-2005 for the reference period and the future period from 2021 to 2050 for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In addition, the study was based on the water requirements necessary during the critical phase of the cocoa tree (the flowering phase) for a good yield from the cocoa production chain on the one hand, and on a selection of three climate indices CDD, CWD and r95PTOT to study their spatio-temporal changes over two future periods 2021-2035 (near future) and 2036-2050 (medium-term) on the other. These climatic indices influence cocoa cultivation and their use in studies of climatic impacts on agriculture is of prime importance. The analysis of their spatio-temporal changes in this work also contributes to providing climate services based on rainfall, to which cocoa crops are highly sensitive. Our results show that the CDD and CWD indices vary from one region to another depending on latitude. For the fourteen localities studied, the number of consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase between now and 2050, while the number of consecutive wet days (CWD) could decrease over the period 2021-2035 and then increase over the period 2036-2050. The localities of Tabou, Aboisso and San-Pedro record high numbers of CDD index and CWD index for both projection scenarios. In comparison with the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, these results show that the RCP8.5 scenarios are having an impact on cocoa growing in Côte d’Ivoire.

关键词： Cocoa RCP4.5 RCP8.5 climate indices Côte D’ivoire

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Trends of Extreme Temperature and Rainfall indices for Arid and Semi-Arid Lands of South Eastern Kenya

引用

Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2016年第12期4卷 158-171页

作者： Samwel N. Marigi Andrew K. Njogu William N. Githungo Institute for Meteorological Training & Research Nairobi Kenya Meteorological Office Kitui County Kenya

Extreme climate events have profound impacts on economies and livelihoods of many regions of the world. In Kenya, the extreme climate events often have strong impacts on agriculture production systems in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs). A small change in the mean climate condition can cause large changes in these production systems. There is a paucity of information on trends in climate and climate extremes in the country. However, a joint World Meteorological Commission for Climatology/World climate Research Programme (WCPRP) project on climate Variability and Predictability (WMO CCl/CLIVAR) Expert Team (ET) on climate Change Detection, Monitoring and indices has defined 27 core climate indices mainly focusing on extreme events which can be derived through the use of RClimDex Software. In this study, therefore, the RClimDex software has been used to derive climate extreme indices for five stations in the ASALs of South-Eastern Kenya based on climate data for the period 1961 to 2009. The objective was to examine trends in these extremes to aid agricultural planning and practice. These indices have shown decreasing trends in annual rainfall, rainfall intensity and consecutive wet days but increasing trends in consecutive dry days. Steady warming patterns were evident in both the maximum and minimum temperature indices. This paper concludes that indeed significant changes in climate extremes are apparent in the ASALs of the country and recommends a re-thinking of planning and practice of rain-fed agriculture in the ASALs of South-Eastern Kenya.

关键词： Extreme climate Events climate indices Agriculture Systems ASALs RClimDex Soft Software

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Assessment of Spatial Distribution and Temporal Trends of Precipitation and Its Extremes over Nigeria

引用

American Journal of climate Change 2021年第3期10卷 331-352页

作者： Moses Owoicho Audu Emmanuel Ejembi Tertsee Igbawua Department of Physics Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University Makurdi Nigeria Department of Natural and Applied Sciences Namibia University of Science and Technology Namibia

This study analyzed the spatial distribution and temporal trends of precipitation and its extremes over Nigeria from 1979-2013 using climate indices, in order to assess climatic extremes in the country. Daily precipitation data used in this study were obtained from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Lagos. The study used climate indices developed by the Expert Team on climate Change Detection (ETCCDI) for assessing extreme precipitation. Sen’s slope estimator and Mann-Kendall trend test were employed in data analysis. Results revealed that precipitation and its extremes varied spatially across Nigeria. Significant negative trends were observed in most of the precipitation indices for the period under study. Furthermore, significant downward trends were observed in the CWD (Consecutive Wet Day) while the CDD (Consecutive Dry Day) showed significant upward trends in all the regions. These spatial and temporal changes indicate that Nigeria’s climate is trending towards a warmer and drier condition, which could be attributed to global warming-induced climate change;which altered historical rainfall patterns thereby leading to extreme events. The findings of this study have provided useful information in understanding the extreme events that are assumed by the general populace to be normal recurrent events in Nigeria. The results of the analysis of yearly and decadal changes in precipitation totals and extreme values for the last 35 years (1979-2013) suggest the likelihood of severe impacts on water resources, agriculture, and water-sensitive economic activities

关键词： climate indices climate Extreme climate Change Spatial Pattern Temporal Trends Nigeria

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

欢迎您,

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：

通借通还

欢迎您,

建议与咨询 留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案： 新增检索档案 确定 取消

请选择收藏分类： 新增自定义分类 确定 取消

通借通还

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：