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A CMIP6-based assessment of regional climate change in the chinese tianshan mountains

Journal of Arid Land 2024年第2期16卷 195-219页

作者： LIU Xinyu LI Xuemei ZHANG Zhengrong ZHAO Kaixin LI Lanhai Faculty of Geomatics Lanzhou Jiaotong UniversityLanzhou 730070China National-Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Technologies and Applications for National Geographic State Monitoring Lanzhou 730070China Gansu Provincial Engineering Laboratory for National Geographic State Monitoring Lanzhou 730070China State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Chinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China

Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes,agricultural production,and human society.Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting.The chinese tianshan mountains(CTM)have a high climate sensitivity,rendering the region particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate warming.In this study,we used monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from the CN05.1 gridded dataset(1961-2014)and 24 global climate models(GCMs)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to assess the applicability of the CMIP6 GCMs in the CTM at the regional scale.Based on this,we conducted a systematic review of the interannual trends,dry-wet transitions(based on the standardized precipitation index(SPI)),and spatial distribution patterns of climate change in the CTM during 1961-2014.We further projected future temperature and precipitation changes over three terms(near-term(2021-2040),mid-term(2041-2060),and long-term(2081-2100))relative to the historical period(1961-2014)under four shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios(i.e.,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5).It was found that the CTM had experienced significant warming and wetting from 1961 to 2014,and will also experience warming in the future(2021-2100).Substantial warming in 1997 was captured by both the CN05.1 derived from interpolating meteorological station data and the multi-model ensemble(MME)from the CMIP6 GCMs.The MME simulation results indicated an apparent wetting in 2008,which occurred later than the wetting observed from the CN05.1 in 1989.The GCMs generally underestimated spring temperature and overestimated both winter temperature and spring precipitation in the CTM.Warming and wetting are more rapid in the northern part of the CTM.By the end of the 21st century,all the four SSP scenarios project warmer and wetter conditions in the CTM with multiple dry-wet transitions.However,the rise in precipitation fails to counterbalance the drought induced by escalating temperatu

关键词： climate change Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) global climate models(GCMs) shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios standardized precipitation index(SPI) chinese tianshan mountains

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Effect of topography on the changes of Urumqi Glacier No.1 in the chinese tianshan mountains

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Journal of Arid Land 2022年第7期14卷 719-738页

作者： LI Hongliang WANG Puyu LI Zhongqin JIN Shuang XU Chunhai MU Jianxin HE Jie YU Fengchen State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China University of chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China College of Sciences Shihezi UniversityShihezi 832000China College of Geography and Environmental Science Northwest Normal UniversityLanzhou 730070China

Topography plays an important role in determining the glacier changes.However,topography has often been oversimplified in the studies of the glacier changes.No systematic studies have been conducted to evaluate the relationship between the glacier changes and topographic features.The present study provided a detailed insight into the changes in the two branches(east branch and west branch)of Urumqi Glacier No.1 in the chinese tianshan mountains since 1993 and systematically discussed the effect of topography on the glacier parameters.This study analyzed comprehensive recently observed data(from 1992/1993 to 2018/2019),including mass balance,ice thickness,surface elevation,ice velocity,terminus,and area,and then determined the differences in the changes of the two branches and explored the effect of topography on the glacier changes.We also applied a topographic solar radiation model to analyze the influence of topography on the incoming shortwave radiation(SW_(in))across the entire glacier,focusing on the difference in the SW_(in) between the two branches.The glacier mass balance of the east branch was more negative than that of the west branch from 1992/1993 to 2018/2019,and this was mainly attributed to the lower average altitude of the east branch.Compared with the west branch,the decrease rate of the ice velocity was lower in the east branch owing to its relatively increased slope.The narrow shape of the west branch and its southeast aspect in the earlier period resulted in a larger glacier terminus retreat of the west branch.The spatial variability of the SW_(in) across the glacier surface became much larger as altitude increased.The SW_(in) received by the east branch was slightly larger than that received by the west branch,and the northern aspect could receive more SW_(in),leading to glacier melting.In the future,the difference of the glacier changes between the two branches will continue to exist due to their topographic differences.This work is fundamental to understanding how topographic features affec

关键词： glacier changes topography solar radiation glacier terminus retreat climate warming Urumqi Glacier No.1 chinese tianshan mountains

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Glacier area variation and climate change in the chinese tianshan mountains since 1960

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2011年第2期21卷 263-273页

作者： WANG Shengjie ZHANG Mingjun LI Zhongqin WANG Feiteng LI Huilin LI Yaju HUANG Xiaoyan College of Geography and Environment Sciences Northwest Normal University Lanzhou 730070 China State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences / tianshan Glaciological Station Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute CAS Lanzhou 730000 China

Based on the statistics of glacier area variation measured in the chinese tianshan mountains since 1960, the response of glacier area variation to climate change is discussed systematically. As a result, the total area of the glaciers has been reduced by 11.5% in the past 50 years, which is a weighted percentage according to the glacier area variations of 10 drainage basins separated by the Glacier Inventory of China （GIC）. The annual percentage of area changes （APAC） of glaciers in the chinese tianshan mountains is 0.31% after the standardization of the study period. The APAC varies widely for different drainage basins, but the glaciers are in a state of rapid retreat, generally. According to the 14 meteorological sta- tions in the chinese tianshan mountains, both the temperature and precipitation display a marked increasing tendency from 1960 to 2009 at a rate of 0.34℃·（10a）^-1 and 11 mm·（10a）^-1, respectively. The temperature in the dry seasons （from November to March） increases rapidly at a rate of 0.46℃·（10a）^-1, but the precipitation grows slowly at 2.3 mm·（10a）^-1. While the temperature in the wet seasons （from April to October） grows at a rate of 0.25℃·（10a）^-1, but the precipitation increases at 8.7 mm·（10a）^-1, The annual and seasonal climatic trends accelerate the retreat of glaciers.

关键词： chinese tianshan mountains glacier area climate change temperature precipitation

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