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Complex network analysis of climate Change in the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China

Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2017年第5期9卷 476-487页

作者： ZuHan Liu JianHua Xu WeiHong Li Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Information Cooperative Sensing and Intelligent Processing Nanchang Institute of Technology Nanchang Jiangxi 330099 China Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education) School of Geographic Sciences East China Normal University Shanghai 200241 China Research Center for East-West Cooperation in China East China Normal University Shanghai 200241 China State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi Xinjiang 830011 China

The complex network theory provides an approach for understanding the complexity of climate Change from a new perspective.In this study,we used the coarse graining process to convert the data series of daily mean temperature and daily precipitation from 1961 to 2011 into symbol sequences consisting of five characteristic symbols(i.e.,R,r,e,d and D),and created the temperature fluctuation network(TFN)and precipitation fluctuation network(PFN)to discover the complex network characteristics of climate Change in the Tarim River Basin of Northwest China.The results show that TFN and PEN both present characteristics of scale-free network and small-world network with short average path length and high clustering coefficient.The nodes with high degree in TFN are RRR,d RR and Re R while the nodes with high degree in PFN are rre,rrr,eee and err,which indicates that climate Change modes represented by these nodes have large probability of occurrence.Symbol R and r are mostly included in the important nodes of TFN and PFN,which indicate that the fluctuating variation in temperature and precipitation in the Tarim River Basin mainly are rising over the past 50 years.The nodes RRR,DDD,Re R,RRd,DDd and Ree are the hub nodes in TFN,which undertake 19.71%betweenness centrality of the network.The nodes rre,rrr,eee and err are the hub nodes in PFN,which undertake 13.64%betweenness centrality of the network.

关键词： climate Change complex networks coarse graining process temperature fluctuation network precipitation fluctuation network Northwest China

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Cultivated-land Change in Mu Us Sandy Land of China before and after the first-stage grain-for-green policy

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Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2018年第4期10卷 347-353页

作者： Na Li ChangZhen Yan JiaLi Xie JianXia Ma Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources Chinese Academy of Sciences

Mu Us Sandy Land(MUSL) of China, as a typical eco-fragile and farming-pastoral transitional region, shows great vulnerability to disturbances from cultivation activity. In this region, the conflict between cultivation activity and environmental protection has not attracted great importance until the implementation of China's Grain-for-Green Policy(CGGP) since2000. Here, using Landsat5 TM/Landsat7 ETM+ images from 1990, 2000, and 2010, we monitor the cultivation activity and land-use/cover Changes(LUCC) resulting from cultivation activity in the MUSL region. Based on the data from images, we developed a series of databases of cultivated activity-induced LUCC and use them to discuss comparatively the spatio-temporal evolution trends of cultivation activity before and after CGGP implementation. These results provide evidence for managers to evaluate the implementation effectiveness of governmental policy and the influence of cultivation activity on the ecological environment of the MUSL region.

关键词： Mu Us Sandy Land China's grain-for-green policy cultivated land land-use/cover Change landsat

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Antiretroviral regimen Change among people infected with HIV:evidence from a crosssectional study in China

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Global Health Journal 2018年第3期2卷 21-30页

作者： Junfang Xu Peicheng Wang Liangmin Gao Xinyu Peng Feng Cheng Research Center for Public Health School of MedicineTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Institute for International and Area Studies Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention China Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing 102206China

Background:The rate of death among people living with HIV/AIDS has decreased significantly as a result of treatment with highly active antiretroviral therapy(HAART).However,the issues of drug induced toxicities and complexity of current HAART regimens has remained of great concern.The aim of this study was to determine factors in uencing antiretroviral regimen Changes among people living with HIV/AIDS in China.Methods:This retrospective study collected data through face-to-face interviews with people living with HIV/AIDS who were receiving HAART,and gathered relevant information from infectious disease hospitals.The following information were collected:social-demographic characteristics,antiretroviral therapies,CD4 cell counts,virus loads,reasons for changing medication and other related data.Mean and percentages were used to describe the frequency of regimen Change among patients,and binary logistic regression was employed to test the factors in uencing regimen Change.Results:1,123 people who had experienced regimen Change were included in the analysis.On average,patients remained on HAART for 10.2 months before changing regimen,and the average CD4 cell count and viral load(VL)were 383.1 cells/ l and 28,132.4 copies/mL respectively when changing regimen.The reasons for modi cation were determined as treatment failure(52.5%),adverse reactions(32.3%),and other reasons including pregnancy(15.2%).There are significant differences in regimen Change among people with different genders(PChange regimen.Conclusion:Treatment failure was the main reason for the Change of HAART regimen.Males,drug users,people on longterm medication and those with lower initial CD4 cell counts when starting HAART were most likely to Change regimen.

关键词： antiretroviral therapy regimen Change HIV China

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Impacts of Climate Change on Leisure Sports Golf Tourism For the World Leisure Sports Foundation Congress

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成都体育学院学报 2017年第4期43卷 17-22页

作者：约翰·诺莱特 Anand Rampersad Martha Honey 北德州大学

According to the International Association of Golfing Tour Operators,the global golf tourism market is worth over$20 billion per year,countries are promoting golf as an important tourism activity,and golf tourism expanding rapidly.This study investigated the consumer trends and current situation of golf real estate in Caribbean area,revealed the impacts of climate Change on golf course construction and on leisure sports golf tourism

关键词： leisure sports golf course golf tourism climate Change Caribbean area

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Climate capacity:the measurement for adaptation to climate Change

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2015年第2期13卷 99-108页

作者： Jiahua Pan Yan Zheng Jianwu Wang Xinlu Xie Institute for Urban and Environmental Studies Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Research Center for Sustainable Development Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Legal Centre for Land and Mineral Resources The Ministry of Land and Resources

This article proposed the concept of"climate capacity"as a way of measuring human's adaptiveness to climate Change.This article also focused on the related concepts like ecological carrying capacity,water resources carrying capacity,land carrying capacity as well as population carrying capacity.The concept of climate capacity was articulated against a background of global climate and environmental Change.Essentially,China's efforts to adapt to climate Change was a matter of improving climate capacity,which is the ecosystem as well as the frequency,the intensity and the scale of human's social activities that the climatic resources of a particular geographic area were supposed to support.The climate capacity has two components.One is the natural climate capacity,which includes temperature,sunlight,precipitation,extreme climatic events,etc.The other is the derived climate capacity,which includes water resources,land resources,ecological systems,climatic risks,etc.The climate capacity can be developed or be transferred between regions by taking engineering,technology or regime-based adaptive measures.However,these adaptive measures must be implemented under the principle of economic rationalism,ecological integrity,climate protection,and social justice.It is expected that by combining the climate capacity and its threshold value with the assessment of climate Change risks,we are able to predict the optimal population carrying capacity and the scale of socioeconomic development,and furthermore,provide policy support for the socioeconomic development strategy and adaptive planning.In the regions with high climate capacity,there is a symbiotic relationship between adaptation and socioeconomic development.But,in the regions with limited climate capacity,irrational development may further damage the environment.Taking the Yangtze River delta,a region with high climate capacity,and a region of Ningxia,a region with limited climate capacity,as illustrative examples,the authors of this article analyzed the policy implicatio

关键词： climate Change climate capacity adaptation development climate Change economics

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Geopolitics of global climate Change and energy security

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2015年第2期13卷 119-126页

作者： Wentao Wang Yanhua Liu The Administrative Centre for China's Agenda 21 Counselors' Office of the State Council

Currently,the problem of climate Change is already far beyond the category of scientific research,and it affects the economic operation mode,interests pattern,and geographical relationships and becomes the focus of global governance.During the transition period of the international economic and social development and the critical transformation period of the world geopolitical pattern reorganization,China's industrialization is still at the intermediate stage,and tackling with climate Change is also China's internal demand under this development stage.With more influence of climate Change on national competitiveness,climate Change and geopolitics present complex multiple relations,and climate Change in the era of geopolitical landscape gradually affected the national strategy and diplomacy.This article offered some relevant suggestions based on evaluating the new geopolitical characteristics of climate Change:(1)weighing of interests and properly handling the complex relations among major powers during international climate negotiations;(2)strengthening risk judgments and actively cooperating with the United States and the European Union on energy and climate Change;(3)relying on the"One Belt(Silk Road Economic Belt)and One Road(twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road)"to ensure China's energy security and actively participating in the global energy governance;(4)strengthening the"south-south cooperation"mechanism innovation and increasing the investment.

关键词： climate Change energy geopolitics global governance national development strategy

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An in-depth view of climate Change:addressing climate Change while making a transition on the development mode

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2015年第2期13卷 93-98页

作者： Xiangwan Du Chinese Academy of Engineering

While fossil fuels greatly contribute to human society,they pose great challenges to natural resources,the environment,and climate Change.Developed countries,like the United States,formulated strategic measures to ensure their sustainable development and leading positions in the world.These measures include new green policies,development of shale gas,revitalization of nuclear power,energy independence,reindustrialization,and new low-carbon development based on a combination of Internet technology and renewable energy.Developing countries are also trying to introduce balanced strategies of poverty alleviation and sustainable development.Globally,industrial civilization is being transformed to ecological civilization and green,low-carbon development is a global trend.Addressing climate Change provides new strategic factors to further this development.China should take substantial actions to realize sustainable development in a new road:China is in the critical stage of changing its development mode,so it is vital to choose an appropriate development path.This extensive development comes at the high price of consuming too much resources and scarring the environment.Mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing climate Change can help the transition of development.Based on the analysis of the development data of developed countries,the author introduces the concept of"two-type developed countries"with an understanding that not all developed countries must take the same development mode.He also holds the view that China should achieve modernization in a more energy-saving and more carbon-efficient manner compared with that of two-type developed countries.An analysis of"two competitions"that China is facing shows that changing the developing mode is urgent and China should grasp this opportunity in the next five to ten years,which is a key period for this transition.This paper discusses the low-carbon development goals and the three-step process.Low-carbon development does not necessarily restrict economic develo

关键词： climate Change development mode transition resources and environment ecological civilization

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Analysis to driving forces of land use Change in Lu’an mining area

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中国有色金属学会会刊：英文版 2011年第S3期21卷 727-732页

作者： LIU Chang-hua, MA Xiao-xiao School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454003, China School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering Henan Polytechnic University Jiaozuo 454003 China

By selecting impact factors of driving force and formulating evaluation criteria of the impacts, the evaluation system of corresponding driving force impact of land use Change was established. Taking Lu'an mining area as an example, the specific impact factors of coal mine were comprehensively evaluated and analyzed in order to carry out qualitative and quantitative analysis for the driving force of mining-land use Change. The principal component analysis shows that the social and economic development in mining area from 2000 to 2007 demonstrates continuous accelerate trends, and the impacts of its overall driving force to land use Change are increased gradually. The socio-economic factors have more impacts to mining-land use Change than those of the natural resources. The main driving force of mining-land use Change also include population, technological progress and policy.

关键词： mining area land use Change driving force evaluation factor principal component analysis

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1999-2007年中国耕地利用变化——政策演进视角(英文)

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2012年第6期22卷 1061-1078页

作者：宋小青欧阳竹李运生李发东 Yucheng Comprehensive Experiment Station Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and ModelingInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCAS University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Cultivated land protection （CLP） entered the new era of macro administration in 1999 in China. This paper presents a holistic analysis of cultivated land use Change concerning the three goals of the CLP, i.e., grain security, ecological security and harmonizing regional development. Farmers＇ willingness to grow grain has been the key factor in safeguarding grain security. Grain-for-green policy has contributed to improving ecological state especially in the western provinces. Effects of the land macro-control of the CLP on harmonizing regional development were significant. Moi＇eover, cultivated land use Change in 1999-2007 points out the way of the evolving poliey in the future. From the viewpoint of normative concept of multifunctionality, we discuss development of the three land functions, i.e., production function, environmental function and carrier function. Finally, we propose to emphasize multifunctional land management based on regional differences to promote transition of the CLP.

关键词： cultivated land use Change protection policy panel data China

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Change in Childcare Policy and Defamilialization

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学术界 2017年第11期 257-267页

作者： Mihyang Choi Sungkyunkwan University

This study explores childcare policy Change in South Korea by employing the gradual institutional Change model and in relation to the concept of defamilialization.T his study measured the degree of defamilialization quantitatively using the data of Childcare Statistics between 2001-2016 and conducted hierarchical cluster analysis.The analysis results showed that the trajectories of childcare policy in South Korea could be divided into three clusters-2001-2006 for the first cluster,2007-2012 for the second cluster,and2013-2016 for the third cluster-and there were two Changes-conversion and layering.Childcare policy in South Korea has taken the path of familialization,market defamilialization,and active familialization.

关键词： childcare policy policy Change defamilialization South Korea

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