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Could the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism promote climate mitigation?An economy-wide analysis

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第3期15卷 557-571页

作者： Kun ZHANG Yun-Fei YAO Xiang-Yan QIAN Yu-Fei ZHANG Qiao-Mei LIANG Yi-Ming WEI College of Economics and Management Beijing University of TechnologyBeijing 100124China Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research Beijing Institute of TechnologyBeijing 100081China School of Management and Economics Beijing Institute of TechnologyBeijing 100081China Beijing Key Laboratory of Energy Economics and Environmental Management Beijing 100081China Sinopec Research Institute of Petroleum Engineering SinopecBeijing 100101China College of Economics and Management Nanjing Agricultural UniversityNanjing 210095China

Due to concerns about carbon leakage and sectoral competitiveness,the European Union(EU)proposed implementing the carbon border adjustment mechanism(CBAM).The effectiveness and potential negative consequences of CBAM have aroused extensive *** the perspective of the economy-wide analysis,this study uses a global computable general equilibrium model to explore the rationality of CBAM from the aspects of socioeconomic impact and the effects of promoting climate ***,the potential alternative mechanism of CBAM is *** results show that CBAM can reduce the EU's gross domestic product(GDP)loss;however,the GDP loss in all other regions ***,CBAM raises household welfare losses in most regions,including the ***,although CBAM can reduce the marginal abatement cost in eight regions,it comes at the cost of greater economic ***,the economic and household welfare cost of raising emissions reduction targets in regions like the USA and Japan is substantially higher than the impact of passively accepting the CBAM;therefore,CBAM's ability to drive ambitious emission reduction initiatives may be ***,for the potential alternative mechanism,from the perspective of reducing economic cost and household welfare losses,the EU could implement domestic tax cuts in the short-term and promote global unified carbon pricing in the long-term.

关键词： Border adjustment mechanism Computable general equilibrium model carbon price Climate policy Global carbon pricing

EMISSION ABATEMENT FOR PRODUCTION SYSTEM ACROSS LOCATIONS WITH HETEROGENEOUS EMISSION PROFLES

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2017年第4期26卷 531-548页

作者： Peng Wu Jiuping Xu School of Business Sichuan University Chengdu 610064 China Engineering Research Center of Low carbon Technology and Economy Sichuan University Chengdu 610064 China

This paper investigates a production system in which the desired system state is a reduction of emissions and the controlling action plan is altering carbon price. From the operations perspective, we develop a model to study how increasing carbon emission costs may affect the joint production and location decisions for a manufacturer across different locations. Specifically, our model incorporates economies of scale and explicitly links product demand, production costs and carbon emission levels to location decisions. The firm＇s decisions in production batch size and locations are then optimised. The system state of emission are analysed under different carbon prices. Finally we check the alignment of objectives in costs and emissions for the system. The results show that for a production system with economies of scale, the production allocation is transformed to a location choice problem after optimising the costs. Raising the carbon price reduces the carbon emissions but may not be able to induce the production to be placed in an emission efficient place. We propose a hybrid policy combining carbon price and free emission allowance to fully align the cost efficiency and emission efficiency and characterise the link between the emission target and the carbon price.

关键词： carbon emissions Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model carbon price emissionallowance and location choice

An Empirical Investigation on the Risk-Return Relationship of carbon Future Market

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2016年第4期29卷 1057-1070页

作者： LI Ziran QIAO Han SONG Nan ZU Lei Collaborative Innovation Center for the Innovation and Regulation of Internet-Based Finance Southwestern University of Finance and EconomicsChengdu 611130China CFFEX Institute for Financial Derivatives Beijing 100033China School of Management University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China Directors'Office Institute of High Energy PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China School of Management Sciences and Engineering Central University of Finance and EconomicsBeijing 100081China

This paper examines the risk-return relationship for the carbon future market during Phases I, II and III of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme(EU ETS). The risk factors derived from the newly developed LSW model, are embedded into a GARCH framework. This new specification is compared with several GARCH-M type models analyzing the risk-return relationship in the carbon market. The results show that the new specification consistently achieves a good fit and possesses superior explanatory power for the European Union Allowance(EUA) data. Some policy suggestions regarding market efficiency are also provided.

关键词： carbon price GARCH information diffusion risk-return.

Factors affecting the pilot trading market of carbon emissions in China

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Petroleum Science 2018年第2期15卷 412-420页

作者： Yong Jiang Ya-Lin Lei Yong-Zhi Yang Fang Wang School of Humanities and Economic Management China University of GeosciencesBeijing 10083China Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resources and Environment Ministry of Land and ResourcesBeijing 100083China Petrochina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development Beijing 100083China

Climate change and carbon emissions are major problems which are attracting worldwide attention. China has had its pilot carbon emission trading markets in seven regions for more than 3 years. What affects carbon emission trading market in China is a big question. More attention is paid to how China promotes the carbon emission trading schemes in the whole country. This paper addresses concerns about the functioning of carbon emission trading schemes in seven pilot regions and takes the weekly data from November 25, 2013, to March 19, 2017. We employ a vector autoregressive model to study how coal price, oil price and stock index have affected the carbon price in China. The results indicate that carbon price is mainly affected by its own historical price; coal price and stock index have negative effects on carbon price, while oil price has a negative effect on carbon price during the first 3 weeks and then has a positive effect on carbon price. More regulatory attention and economic measures are needed to improve market efficiency, and the mechanisms of carbon emission trading schemes should be improved.

关键词： carbon emission trading market carbon price VAR model China

The first compliance cycle of China’s National Emissions Trading Scheme:insights and implications

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碳中和(英文) 2022年第1期1卷 131-140页

作者： Jin Li Yecheng Yao Xifan Wang Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange ShanghaiChina

China’s national Emissions Trading Scheme(ETS),the largest ETS in terms of the amount of CO_(2) regulated,was launched on the trading platform operated by the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange(SEEE)on July 16th 2021,and has successfully completed its first compliance cycle on December 30th,*** the operation of its first cycle,China’s national ETS differs from other international ETSs in many aspects,including trading products and participants,allowance allocation method,compliance term,and offset mechanism,leading to certain unique trading *** unique settings are worth noticing including key emitters dominated by state-owned enterprises(SOEs)who also dominate transactions,large-scale power groups’carbon strategies,allowances for 2 years of 2019 and 2020 being processed in one compliance period and allowed inter-year banking of *** these have led to trading patterns characterized by cyclical demand-driven trading,insufficient trading capabilities of regulated entities,stable allowance price and an increased price of ***,the successful running of its first compliance cycle offers invaluable experience for future ETS development in operational mechanism improvement,sector coverage expansion,allocation optimization,and introduction of different types of market players and tradable products,and provides a good reference for future international expansion.

关键词： China’s national ETS carbon market The first compliance cycle Market performance carbon price

Policy Implications for carbon Trading Market Establishment in China in the 12th Five-Year Period

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2012年第3期3卷 163-173页

作者： LI Ji-Feng ZHANG Ya-Xiong WANG Xin CAI Song-Feng Economic Forecasting Department State Information CenterBeijing 100045China

Based on the survey of international emissions trading system （ETS） and quantitative analysis, policy suggestions on establishing a carbon ETS in China are presented in this study. Sectors sensitive to carbon prices, e.g., the power generation sector and the iron and steel industry, are given priority to be covered by the ETS. Interregional carbon trading should be carried out as early as possible. The cap of the ETS should be based on China＇s carbon intensity reduction target with the floor carbon price for the market being set in the beginning. Suggestions on the infrastructure of ETS are also proposed, including the national wide carbon measuring, reporting, verification system building. account registration system and the legislation to national

关键词： carbon trading system cap of allowance distribution of allowance carbon price infrastructure of carbonmarket

Daily rolling estimation of carbon emission cost of coal-fired units considering long-cycle interactive operation simulation of carbon-electricity market

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Global Energy Interconnection 2023年第4期6卷 467-484页

作者： Mingjie Ma Lili Hao Zhengfeng Wang Zi Yang Chen Xu Guangzong Wang Xueping Pan Jun Li College of Electrical Engineering and Control Science Nanjing Tech UniversityNanjing 211816P.R.China State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co. Ltd.Hefei 230022P.R.China Tianjin Bohai Electric Power Group Co. Ltd.Tianjin 300171P.R.China College of Energy and Electrical Engineering Hohai UniversityNanjing 210008P.R.China School of Economics Hefei University of TechnologyHefei 230601P.R.China

The high overlap of participants in the carbon emissions trading and electricity markets couples the operations of the two *** carbon emission cost(CEC)of coal-fired units becomes part of the power generation cost through market *** accuracy of CEC calculation affects the clearing capacity of coal-fired units in the electric power *** of carbon–electricity market interaction and CEC calculations is still in its initial *** study analyzes the impact of carbon emissions trading and compliance on the operation of the electric power market and defines the cost transmission mode between the carbon emissions trading and electric power markets.A long-period interactive operation simulation mechanism for the carbon–electricity market is established,and operation and trading models of the carbon emissions trading market and electric power market are established.A daily rolling estimation method for the CEC of coal-fired units is proposed,along with the CEC per unit electric quantity of the coal-fired *** feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified through an example simulation,and the factors influencing the CEC are analyzed.

关键词： carbon emission trading carbon emission cost carbon price Electric power market Market simulation

Economic Implications of Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change： An Analysis Using the AIM/CGE [Global] Model

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Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering 2010年第7期4卷 76-83页

作者： K. Matsumoto T. Masui Center for Global Environmental Research National Institute for Environmental Studies Tsukuba 3058506 Japan Social and Environmental Systems Division National Institute for Environmental Studies Tsukuba 3058506 Japan

The purpose of this study is to analyze economic impacts of reducing greenhouse gases emissions significantly. A large amount of emissions reductions are required throughout this century to avoid dangerous climate change, and understanding the economic consequences under such situations is important and meaningful. The AIM/CGE [Global] model, a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model on a global scale, is applied to analyze carbon prices and changes in GDP when implementing five policy scenarios represented by emissions pathways, respectively. As a result of the analysis, higher carbon prices and larger decreases in GDP compared to the baseline emissions scenario are observed when emissions are reduced more deeply. However, such GDP losses are rather small and insignificant compared to the GDP growth observed throughout the century. These results suggest that although it is challenging to reduce emissions until the level to avoid dangerous climate change, there is a sufficient possibility to achieve it from economic perspectives.

关键词： Economic impact carbon price GDP dangerous climate change emissions reduction global CGE model

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中国碳交易市场回顾与展望