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A Prediction Framework for Turning Period Structures in covid-19 epidemic and Its Application to Practical Emergency Risk Management

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Journal of Systems Science and Information 2022年第4期10卷 309-337页

作者： Lan DI Yudi GU Guoqi QIAN George Xianzhi YUAN School of Artificial Intelligence and Computer Science Jiangnan UniversityWuxi 214122China Center of Information Construct and Management Jiangnan UniversityWuxi 214122China School of Mathematics&Statistics University of MelbourneMelbourne VIC 3010Australia Business School East China University of Science and TechnologyShanghai 200237China Business School Chengdu UniversityChengdu 610106China Business School Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 510275China

The aim of this paper is first to establish a general prediction framework for turning(period)term structures in covid-19 epidemic related to the implementation of emergency risk management in the practice,which allows us to conduct the reliable estimation for the peak period based on the new concept of“Turning Period”(instead of the traditional one with the focus on“Turning Point”)for infectious disease spreading such as the covid-19 epidemic appeared early in year 2020.By a fact that emergency risk management is necessarily to implement emergency plans quickly,the identification of the Turning Period is a key element to emergency planning as it needs to provide a time line for effective actions and solutions to combat a pandemic by reducing as much unexpected risk as soon as possible.As applications,the paper also discusses how this“Turning Term(Period)Structure”is used to predict the peak phase for covid-19 epidemic in Wuhan from January/2020 to early March/2020.Our study shows that the predication framework established in this paper is capable to provide the trajectory of covid-19 cases dynamics for a few weeks starting from Feb.10/2020 to early March/2020,from which we successfully predicted that the turning period of covid-19 epidemic in Wuhan would arrive within one week after Feb.14/2020,as verified by the true observation in the practice.The method established in this paper for the prediction of“Turning Term(Period)Structures”by applying covid-19 epidemic in China happened early 2020 seems timely and accurate,providing adequate time for the government,hospitals,essential industry sectors and services to meet peak demands and to prepare aftermath planning,and associated criteria for the Turning Term Structure of covid-19 epidemic is expected to be a useful and powerful tool to implement the so-called“dynamic zero-covid-19 policy”ongoing basis in the practice.

关键词： prediction framework turning period structure turing phase covid-19 epidemic emergency risk management emergency plan Delta and Gamma i SEIR spatio-temporal model supersaturation phenomenon multiplex network dynamic zero-covid-19 policy

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Significant concurrent decrease in PM_(2.5) and NO_(2) concentrations in China during covid-19 epidemic

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2021年第1期33卷 346-353页

作者： Biiuu Chu Shuping Zhang Jun Liu Qingxin Ma Hong He State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control Research Center for Eco-Enuironmental SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100085China Center for Excellence in Regional Atmospheric Environment Institute of Urban EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesXiamen 361021China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

The strict control measures and social lockdowns initiated to combat covid-19 epidemic have had a notable impact on air pollutant concentrations.According to observation data obtained from the China National Environmental Monitoring Center,compared to levels in 2019,the average concentration of NO_(2) in early 2020 during covid-19 epidemic has decreased by 53%,50%,and 30%in Wuhan city,Hubei Province(Wuhan excluded),and China(Hubei excluded),respectively.Simultaneously,PM_(2.5) concentration has decreased by 35%,29%,and 19%in Wuhan,Hubei(Wuhan excluded),and China(Hubei excluded),respectively.Less significant declines have also been found for SO_(2) and CO concentrations.We also analyzed the temporal variation and spatial distribution of air pollutant concentrations in China during covid-19 epidemic.The decreases in PM_(2.5) and NO_(2) concentrations showed relatively consistent temporal variation and spatial distribution.These results support control of NO x to further reduce PM_(2.5) pollution in China.The concurrent decrease in NOx and PM_(2.5) concentrations resulted in an increase of O3 concentrations across China during covid-19 epidemic,indicating that coordinated control of other pollutants is needed.

关键词： covid-19 epidemic Air quality Temporal variation and spatial distribution Coordinated control PM_(2.5) O3

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China in the eyes of news media:a case study under covid-19 epidemic

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Frontiers of Information Technology & Electronic Engineering 2021年第11期22卷 1443-1457页

作者： Hong HUANG Zhexue CHEN Xuanhua SHI Chenxu WANG Zepeng HE Hai JIN Mingxin ZHANG Zongya LI National Engineering Research Center for Big Data Technology and System Huazhong University of Science and TechnologyWuhan430074China Services Computing Technology and System Lab Huazhong University of Science and TechnologyWuhan430074China Cluster and Grid Computing Lab Huazhong University of Science and TechnologyWuhan430074China School of Computer Science and Technology Huazhong University of Science and TechnologyWuhan430074China School of Journalism and Information Communication Huazhong University of Science and TechnologyWuhan430074China

As one of the early covid-19 epidemic outbreak areas,China attracted the global news media’s attention at the beginning of 2020.During the epidemic period,Chinese people united and actively fought against the epidemic.However,in the eyes of the international public,the situation reported about China is not optimistic.To better understand how the international public portrays China,especially during the epidemic,we present a case study with big data technology.We aim to answer three questions:(1)What has the international media focused on during the covid-19 epidemic period?(2)What is the media’s tone when they report China?(3)What is the media’s attitude when talking about China?In detail,we crawled more than 280000 pieces of news from 57 mainstream media agencies in 22 countries and made some interesting observations.For example,international media paid more attention to Chinese livelihood during the covid-19 epidemic period.In March and April,“progress of Chinese vaccines,”“specific drugs and treatments,”and“virus outbreak in U.S.”became the media’s most common topics.In terms of news attitude,Cuba,Malaysia,and Venezuela had a positive attitude toward China,while France,Canada,and the United Kingdom had a negative attitude.Our study can help understand China’s image in the eyes of the international media and provide a sound basis for image analysis.

关键词： Country image covid-19 epidemic Topic mining Entity Tone of news Emotion

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Forecasting the development of the covid-19 epidemic by nowcasting: when did things start to get better?

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Quantitative Biology 2021年第1期9卷 93-99页

作者： Yuehui Zhang Lin Chen Qili Shi Zhongguang Luo Libing Shen Spine Center Xin Hua Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghai 200092China Department of Digestive Diseases of Huashan Hospital Fudan UniversityShanghai 200040China Stem Cell and Regenerative Medicine Laboratory Ningbo No.2 HospitalNingbo 315010China Institute of Neuroscience Shanghai Institute for Biological SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesShanghai 200031China

Background:Now the coronavirus disease 2019(covid-19)epidemic becomes a global phenomenon and its development concerns billions of peoples1 lives.The development of the covid-19 epidemic in China could be used as a reference for the other countries,control strategy.Methods:We used a classical susceptible-infected-recovered(SIR)model to forecast the development of the covid-19 epidemic in China by nowcasring.The linear regression analyses were employed to predict the covid-19 epidemic’s inflexion point.Finally,we used a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered(SEIR)model to simulate the development of the covid-19 epidemic in China throughout 2020.Results:Our nowcasts show that the covid-19 transmission rate started to slow down on January 30.The linear regression analyses further show that the inflexion point of this epidemic would arrive between February 17 and 18.The final SEIR model simulation forecasted that the covid-19 epidemic would probably infect about 82,000 people and last throughout 2020 in China.We also applied our method to USA's and global covid-19 data and the nowcasts show that the development of covid-19 pandemic is not optimistic in the rest of 2020.Conclusion:The covid-19 epidemic's scale in China is much smaller than the previous estimations.After implemented strict control and prevention measures,such as city lockdown,it took a week to slow down the covid-19 transmission and about four weeks to really mitigate the covid-19 prevalence in China.

关键词： forecast covid-19 epidemic development

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Study on Influence of the covid-19 epidemic on Tourism Consumption Structure in Shandong Province

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Agricultural Biotechnology 2023年第6期12卷 66-70页

作者： Dongmei ZHANG Qinglin DAI Taishan University Tai'an 271000China

At the end of 2019,the sudden outbreak of the covid-19 epidemic brought great challenges to the world,and China's tourism industry suffered an unprecedented heavy blow.Exploring the impact of the epidemic on tourism consumption structure has become a research focus in the post-epidemic era.In this study,based on Shandong Tourism Statistics Handbook from 2018 to 2020,taking Shandong Province as an example,the changes of total tourism revenue and tourism consumption structure in Shandong Province before and after the covid-19 epidemic were compared to predict the development of tourism in Shandong Province in the post-epidemic era and find out existing problems,and optimization paths were put forward for the development of tourism in Shandong Province in the post-epidemic era.

关键词： covid-19 epidemic Shandong Province Tourism consumption structure Post-pandemic era

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Impact of covid-19 epidemic on the International Food Supply Chain and Countermeasures of Shandong Province

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Asian Agricultural Research 2020年第8期12卷 1-5,16页

作者： Fangyao YUAN Ping YANG Feng XU Tongkai HAN Shandong Institute of Agricultural Sustainable Development / Key Laboratory of East China Urban Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture Jinan 250100 China Shandong Seed Industry Group Co. Ltd. Jinan 250100 China

The covid-19 epidemic has exerted an impact on the global food supply chain,and also has contributed to the tendency of food hoarding and short supply;strong food demand has led to a rapid rise in international food prices,which has put enormous pressure on China's food import,and domestic food price showed a rise trend accordingly.In order to ensure sufficient and stable supply of China's food market,it is necessary to adhere to the food security strategy of"food self-sufficiency"for a long term.In the spring agricultural production,Shandong Province has taken effective measures to stabilize food production and achieved good results.It has not been greatly affected by the covid-19 epidemic;however,under the continuous spread of foreign epidemics,we must adhere to the dual hard core operation of epidemic prevention and production,and explore the establishment of technical specifications for agricultural production under normal conditions for epidemic prevention and control to ensure the food security.

关键词： covid-19 epidemic Food supply chain Food price Food security

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Multifunctional Flexible Humidity Sensor Systems Towards Noncontact Wearable Electronics

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Nano-Micro Letters 2022年第9期14卷 187-220页

作者： Yuyao Lu Geng Yang Yajing Shen Huayong Yang Kaichen Xu State Key Laboratory of Fluid Power and Mechatronic Systems School of Mechanical EngineeringZhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310027People’s Republic of China Department of Biomedical Engineering City University of Hong KongHong KongPeople’s Republic of China

In the past decade,the global industry and research attentions on intelligent skin-like electronics have boosted their applications in diverse fields including human healthcare,Internet of Things,human–machine interfaces,artificial intelligence and soft robotics.Among them,flexible humidity sensors play a vital role in noncontact measurements relying on the unique property of rapid response to humidity change.This work presents an overview of recent advances in flexible humidity sensors using various active functional materials for contactless monitoring.Four categories of humidity sensors are highlighted based on resistive,capacitive,impedance-type and voltage-type working mechanisms.Furthermore,typical strategies including chemical doping,structural design and Joule heating are introduced to enhance the performance of humidity sensors.Drawing on the noncontact perception capability,human/plant healthcare management,human-machine interactions as well as integrated humidity sensor-based feedback systems are presented.The burgeoning innovations in this research field will benefit human society,especially during the covid-19 epidemic,where cross-infection should be averted and contactless sensation is highly desired.

关键词： Flexible electronics Flexible humidity sensors Noncontact detection Healthcare monitoring Human-machine interactions covid-19 epidemic

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Assessment of health benefit of PM_(2.5) reduction during covid-19 lockdown in China and separating contributions from anthropogenic emissions and meteorology

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2022年第5期34卷 422-431页

作者： Heming Bai Wenkang Gao Yuanpeng Zhang Li Wang Research Center for Intelligent Information Technology Nantong UniversityNantong 226019China Nantong Research Institute for Advanced Communication Technologies Nantong 226019China State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Medical Informatics Medical SchoolNantong UniversityNantong 226019China

The national lockdown policies have drastically disrupted socioeconomic activities during the covid-19 pandemic in China,which provides a unique opportunity to investigate the air quality response to such anthropogenic disruptions.And it is meaningful to evaluate the potential health impacts of air quality changes during the lockdown,especially for PM_(2.5) with adverse health effects.In this study,by using PM_(2.5) observations from 1388 monitor-ing stations nationwide in China,we examine the PM_(2.5) variations between the covid-19 lockdown(February and March in 2020)and the same period in 2015-2019,and find that the national average of PM_(2.5) decreases by 18 μg/m^(3),and mean PM_(2.5) for most sites(about 75%)decrease by 30%-60%.The anthropogenic and meteorological contributions to these PM_(2.5) variations are also determined by using a stepwise multiple linear regression(MLR)model combined with the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filter.Our results show that the change of anthropogenic emissions is a leading contributor to those widespread PM_(2.5) reductions,and meteorological conditions have the negative influence on PM_(2.5) reductions for some re-gions,such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH).Additionally,the avoided premature death due to PM_(2.5) reduction is estimated as a predicted number based on a log-linear concentration-response function.The total avoided premature death is 9952 in China,with dominant con-tribution(94%)from anthropogenic emission changes.For BTH,Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta and Hubei regions,the reductions of PM_(2.5) are 24.1,24.3,13.5 and 29.5 μg/m^(3),with the avoided premature deaths of 1066,1963,454 and 583,respectively.

关键词： covid-19 epidemic PM_(2.5) Health benefit Meteorological and anthropogenic contributions KZ filter

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Resumption of school after lockdown in covid-19 pandemic:Three case reports

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World Journal of Clinical Cases 2022年第26期10卷 9428-9433页

作者： Kong-Jian Wang Yang Cao Chun-Yang Gao Zhen-Qi Song Ming Zeng Hao-Li Gong Jie Wen Sheng Xiao Department of Pediatric Orthopedic Hunan Provincial People's HospitalThe First Affiliated Hospital of Hunan Normal UniversityChangsha 410013Hunan ProvinceChina Department of Orthopedic The Affiliated Yueyang Hospital of Hunan Normal UniversityYueyang 414000Hunan ProvinceChina

BACKGROUND Students in the 9grade of junior high school in Changsha were under a 75 d lockdown due to the coronavirus disease 2019(covid-19)pandemic.After the resumption of school post-lockdown,the 9grade students in Changsha faced the entrance physical examination test for senior high school.CASE SUMMARY We report on 3 cases of occult fracture on the same site in adolescents of the same grade since resumption of school after the lockdown from the covid-19pandemic.Three students in the 9th grade of junior high school who were facing the physical examination in 2 wk were diagnosed with an occult fracture of the distal femur.CONCLUSION It is recommended that the students,parents,education providers and policy makers should all pay attention to the physical exercise of students when the resumption of school after lockdown occurs and they should be aware of occult fractures when the adolescents have pain after physical exercise.

关键词： Occult fracture Lockdown covid-19 epidemic Physical exercise Case report

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Effect of economic policies on the stock and bond market under the impact of covid-19

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Journal of Safety Science and Resilience 2022年第1期3卷 24-38页

作者： Feng Liu Deli Kong Zilong Xiao Xiaohui Zhang Aimin Zhou Jiayin Qi School of Computer Science and Technology East China Normal UniversityShanghai 200062China Institute of Artificial Intelligence and Change Management Shanghai University of International Business and EconomicsShanghai 203356China School of Business and Management Shanghai International Studies UniversityShanghai 201620China School of Data and Computer Science Sun Yat-Sen UniversityGuangzhou 528406China Qianhai Financial Holdings Guangzhou 510030China

The global epidemic of covid-19 has made a huge impact on global health and financial markets.And the spread of the virus has stalled economic development in many parts of the world.As stocks and bonds are two important financial assets,how to take appropriate economic policies to restore the stock and bond markets is the focus of governments as they are seeking for quick recovery.Based on the Event Study method and the GARCH model,data from 1 October 2019 to 1 April 2020 were collected from 26 countries or regions as analytic samples.The results show:1)covid-19 has made greater impacts on the stock market than the bond market;2)the economic policy responses after the covid-19 has brought impacts on both of the stock and the bond markets;3)the monetary policy responses has brought greater volatility to the stock market than the fiscal policy responses,while the fiscal policy responses has brought greater volatility to the bond market than the monetary policy;4)the fiscal policy has brought more positive effects on the stock market,and monetary policy has brought more positive effects on the bond market.This research is helpful to understand the mechanism of covid-19’s impacts on the stock and bond market.And it is of great practical significance to the governments’decisions to make economic policy responses after an epidemic.

关键词： covid-19 epidemic Event study method Global stock and bond market Return and volatility

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